Someone once said that if you put three analysts in a room and ask them a question, you’ll get four different opinions. This certainly appears to be the case today, with Fortune finding no more consensus on iPad sales than it did on iPhone numbers.

Asked to predict how many iPad sales Apple will announce in next week’s Q3 earnings announcement, the overall average suggested year-on-year sales would be flat at 14.35M. However, no consensus view emerged … 

But behind that average is a rather wide range, from a high of 16 million (submitted by Asymco’s Horace Dediu and Hilliard’s Stephen Turner) to a low of 12.26 million (from Canaccord’s T. Michael Walkley).

The same thing was seen earlier today, in iPhone sales predictions ranging from 31.8M to almost 40M.

As Fortune observes, Cook had to defend a slump in iPad sales in Q2, blaming in part Microsoft’s long delay in launching Office for iPad. He said that despite the disappointing quarterly sales, the iPad has sold as twice as many units as iPhone and seven times as many iPods in the same period since launch.

Apple will announce the actual numbers on Tuesday 22nd July at around 1.30pm PT/4.30pm ET, with its conference call to discuss the results starting half an hour later. We will, of course, bring you live coverage.

The full set of analyst predictions for the iPad can be seen below. Feel free to add your own predictions in the comments …


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8 Responses to “On average, analysts expect iPad sales to be flat, but no consensus”

  1. Listening to these guys would be like taking financial advice from the counter at McDonald’s. They have the same business insights (a semi-functioning brain), the same access to supplier information (the internet and search), and the same incentive for you to make money (zero).


  2. and they change their predictions weekly to Cover Their @$$


  3. Sales are down because people don’t have to upgrade every year not all of us can afford it either. iPad, iPhone and Apple computers heck computers overall are made better and people are not replacing them like they used to. I think the tech media has lost touch with the average person who spends 500 or more for something and doesn’t feel the need to replace it every year. I have an iPhone 5 and I don’t plan on getting another phone until this one stops running or can’t get os updates. Same with my iPad mini with retina or my 2012 iMac or my 2013 macbook air. I replaced my 2006 iMac, 2006 macbook pro with newer models because I couldn’t run the latest os. Sales are down of course they are common sense says they should be.


    • jrox16 says:

      Exactly… Wall Street better grow up because the reality is that these products are so good now, there’s no reason to upgrade every year. I see no need to upgrade my iPad Air for at least 2-3 years at this point, it’s pretty much the perfect product now. Before, they were too heavy, or the screen wasn’t good enough, now the Air is perfect. Apple will continue to make billions and will come up with new stuff, and just because one product line is flat doesn’t mean that’s a bad thing. Unlimited growth is impossible and Wall Street needs to grow a brain on that concept.


  4. jrox16 says:

    OH NO!! Apple’s only going to continue making BILLIONS of dollars in profit each quarter, just not more than last time… they are so doomed! Stock price will obviously tank again now. (god I hate Wall Street)


    • I wish you could “like” comments on this site…


    • It’s actually worse than that; Watching the stock tank because Apple’s results, while better than Apple’s own guidance, fell short of some anal-lists [sic] prediction as supported by the vapor emitting from their nether regions. I’ve seen that so many times over the (ack!) 27 years I’ve been following Apple closely that I don’t even react anymore. I just grin, hold onto the stock purchased at a pre split price of… wow, with the last split I think it’s down to 30-40 CENTS a share… and wait for it to continue to rise over the long term.

      That’s the thing about Wall Street: It stopped being about building capital and companies a long time ago, and is now a rigged gambling operation where the little guys get eaten alive and the house always wins. The crass manipulation of short term volatility is the name of the game!


  5. If you think about it, they have said this a lot recently. And with the iPad 2 still running the latest software, and it will run iOS 8 very well then why do people need to upgrade their iPad? If they use it for surfing the web whats the need for a new one? Android tablets stop getting updates a year after they’re released sometimes, so people buy them cheap and just replace them every year or so when it it slow and bogged down or after they break it because it is impossible to find replacement parts on cheap tablets. If a company that wasn’t Samsung put an Android Tablet out on the market that was the price of an iPad it would never sell. I think that Samsung has a hard time sells its higher end tablets as well but they are the only company that stands a chance at that price for android.