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Best Apple analyst posts AAPL Q1-Q2 estimates: Macs shine, iPads disappoint, iPhone has peaked, 3.8M Watches

KGI-AAPL-estimates

KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analysts we feel credible, has his Apple numbers ready for Q1 2015. The analyst projects iPhone, iPad, and Mac shipments to be 58.2 million, 10.1 million, and 4.5 million respectively. He also estimates that Apple Watch shipments are currently at 631,000 units.

Kuo believes that iPhone shipments have peaked and that Apple will see a quarter over quarter decline of 21.8 percent in Q1 and an 11.6 percent quarter over quarter decline in Q2 for shipments of 51.4 million, which would still represent a record quarter for the company. The morale of the story here is that Apple is still selling a lot of phones and there’s no need to worry yet.

iPhone shipments have peaked. We estimate iPhone shipments to decline 21.8% QoQ to 58.2mn units in 1Q15, milder than the seasonal pattern. While we look for QoQ decline of 11.6% to 51.4mn units for 2Q15, still better than seasonality, we believe shipments doesn’t just mean market demand but also partly represents pulled-in 3Q15 orders from Apple. Coupled with slowing shipments from the peak, we are neutral on iPhone supply chain shares.

Next, Kuo anticipates that iPad shipments will decline 52.7 percent quarter over quarter to 10.1 million units un Q1, while shipments in Q2 2015 will decline 28.5 percent quarter over quarter to 7.2 million units. Kuo attributes these “lackluster” numbers more to industry structural challenges than to slow seasonability. Earlier this year, we broke down 10 reasons why Apple is to blame for the decline in iPad sales. Those reasons seem more poignant now than ever.

Regarding the Mac, Kuo says it will be an area of significant growth for Apple. For Q1, Kuo estimates shipments of 4.5 million units, which is a quarter over quarter decline of 17.5 percent. Heading into Q2, however, the analyst predicts a 21.5 percent increase to 5.5 million thanks to the new 12-inch MacBook and back to school demand.

We see a positive outlook for Mac. We look for QoQ decline of 17.5% to 4.5mn units for Mac shipments in 1Q15 and 21.5% QoQ growth to 5.5mn units in 2Q15 on new product attraction and back-to-school demand. We are positive on Mac supply chain shares on stronger shipments momentum than the PC sector average.

Finally, Kuo echoes his sentiments from earlier this month, saying that it’s too early to tell if the Apple Watch will be a success. He believes that, at this point, most of the buyers are hardcore Apple fans, not the average consumer. Kuo estimates shipments at 631,000 units so far, which is far less than the expected 2-3 million units. Kuo cites labor shortages and inadequate production of the haptic feedback vibrator and AMOLED display. For Q2, Kuo estimates 3.8 million Apple Watch shipments.

Apple is set to hold its quarterly earnings call on April 27th.

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Comments

  1. Mmm… I don’t understand. ¿It wasn’t the last financial results for Q1? So, I thought the new ones pertain to Q2 term. ¿28 january = 1Q 2015 and 28 april = 2Q? Am I right?

  2. montefuego - 9 years ago

    Both your site and Appleinsider are trying to spin Kuo’s figures as positive, but to me they are very disappointing. And I fear investors will respond the same way. ‘Iphone demand has peaked.’– how can a phrase like that be a positive? And the ipad is collapsing. And the phone can’t be made easily, but there will be MORE production capacity than demand in the next quarter? All these are negative, not positive for the company and the stock. Yes?

    • montefuego - 9 years ago

      Sorry, meant to say that there will be more capacity than demand for the WATCH, not the phone.

    • John S. Wilson - 9 years ago

      I think you’re a bit confused. Kuo is focusing on comparing this quarter to the holiday quarter. Obviously this quarter will be far less than the holiday quarter–it always is, for every retailer. But year over year they will have hit over 30% growth and also have notched the second best quarter of iPhone sales in history.

      • rogifan - 9 years ago

        Why would anybody do quarter over quarter comparisons? The better comparison is the year ago quarter to the current quarter. you can’t compare a holiday quarter to a non-holiday quarter.

    • montefuego - 9 years ago

      Kuo is giving figures for the iphone that are not astonishing (roughly within consensus), even though we are in a non holiday quarter. I, for one, was hoping that sales in China would be ‘off the charts,’ and produce a figure that exceeds analysts expectations. But Kuo is not indicating that. His prediction for the watch is disappointing both in the current figure, and his projection that capacity will exceed demand in the next quarter (this is highlighted in the Appleinsider version, not in 9-5’s). His prediction for the ipad is the worst of any analyst. Only the mac is doing well, and of course that is the smallest component of earnings. Altogether, it seems to me like a totally negative outlook.

    • Kawaii Gardiner - 9 years ago

      How on earth can it ‘peak’ when year on year growth is 33% and the second quarter 2015 year on year jumps to 46% growth. Is that the ‘peak’? peak implies that the number of shipment are stagnant but all evidence shows that isn’t the case – it is actually growing. If the argument is that the decline in iPad sales isn’t being offset by the iPhone then that might have some validity but lets remember this is speculation – not actual hard data.

  3. amateur hour here…. the focus on consecutive qtrs is not useful. Of course xmas qtr is much larger than the next qtr…. for financials the useful comparison is the previous year’s qtr to this years qtr (in this case q2 2015 vs q2 2014, as apple has a weirdly offset fiscal year)

  4. Isitjustme - 9 years ago

    Kuo is only good at announcing hardware and as a financial analyst he still has to prove it.

    All analysts are guessing and even Apple don’t know how great their quarter will be.

  5. Odys (@twittester10) - 9 years ago

    The headline iPhone has peaked is misleading and will be interpreted like there is no more growth potential for iPhone

    • Garrett Fahey - 9 years ago

      Agreed. This only happens every year. The year over year # is what matters and it will be massive increase. People also need to relax about the iPad numbers. It’s an evolving market and tablets place in the world of connected devices is still an unknown. With light and portable Macs and larger display iPhones, the iPad isn’t the draw to the avg consumer that it used to be. They also last forever hence the low upgrade cycle. The future of Apple rests on connecting users to their ecosystem. As long as Apple continues to expand it’s user base they’ll be fine.

      • alfredprunesquallor - 9 years ago

        It seems that iPads are getting squeezed into niche applications by MB/MBA on one side and iPhone 6/6+ on the other. I pretty much only use mine as an indoor e-reader and treadmill video player.

        If Apple could figure out how make a sunlight-readable display on (at least) the iPad mini, they could capture the e-reader market. That’s the only new market I see for iPads.

    • ssanook - 9 years ago

      Its a clickbait line…..saying the iPhone peaked in Q1 is grossly misleading, the iPhone peaks in Q1 every year as that is the quarter of its release and the xmas holiday. So yeah, it is technically true but very very misleading.

      Also referring to calendar instead of fiscal quarters is amateurish, financial analysts never use calendar quarters as a matter of financial consistency, otherwise its confusing as you can see form the article.

  6. I don’t know why the article is focused on the QoQ results, when everybody knows that YoY results are what really matters

  7. rogifan - 9 years ago

    How could iPhone have peaked when last quarter Tim Cook said only a small percentage of the install base had upgraded to iPhone 6?

  8. mahmudf2014 - 9 years ago

    For me, Kuo lost his credibility when he said “at this point, most of the Watch buyers are hardcore Apple fans, not the average consumer.” How could he know that? He is definetly a “more than idiot person”

    • Soluble Apps - 9 years ago

      (Not that I want to stick up for an analyst, but…) I think he was explaining his reasoning behind his “estimate”. Or, more accurately, “guess”.

  9. What is Ming Chi Kuo’s track record on AAPL? Where can we find his forecasts over the last few years?

    • ssanook - 9 years ago

      Hid financial forecasts are mediocre, mostly right in the middle. His supply chain and feature set reporting has had better than average credibility.

  10. Chris Sanders - 9 years ago

    How can there be estimated shipments before the Apple Watch wasn’t even released in March. It was released well into April.

  11. Insideman - 9 years ago

    I’ve bookmarked this, so I can see how wrong this guy is when the ACTUAL figures are released tomorrow afternoon. ;)

  12. Ron Hummel - 9 years ago

    iPad Air 2 is most likely selling bad cause of the static pop issue. I’m on my 4th iPad and it pops also. Never know what problem it will cause or if it will cause a problem at all. I live in Iowa and it popped a lot when it was cold but since it warmed up it hasn’t popped once. In the forums a lot of people are waiting for the next iPad and a lot returned the one they bought.

    • PMZanetti - 9 years ago

      I’m sure the 8 people affected are really impacting sales.

    • WaveMedia (@WaveMedia) - 9 years ago

      This is literally the first time I’ve ever heard of this issue.

      I think the real reason iPad sales are down is because most people who want one (or a tablet in general) already have one and don’t feel the need to replace it yet. It’s still a new market and we don’t quite understand the trends of it because it simply hasn’t been long enough.

  13. Oflife (@oflife) - 9 years ago

    People are buying the way more innovative Galaxy S6 Edge, which no matter how you spin it, is not only more innovative and pleasing to use, but actually useful. 1. Wireless charging (THE most liberating feature – as my LG G3 and Moto 360 proved), 2. Curved display is not only of exceptional quality (see it), but a delight to use (try it). 3. Very very fast camera launch – and 4K video, again the iPhone cannot do that. 4. More open OS. Whilst Apple can innovate, with the iPhone and iPad, all they have done is make them faster and/or larger, not one innovation. (Few young people use finger print recognition nor care about privacy, so it’s a pointless feature that would be more appropriate for Blackberry’s corporate customers.)

    BTW, got to play with the new MacBook yesterday, it is to die for. If Apple add a second MicroUSB-C port so I could drive two monitors or charge and drive one monitor, they would have got my business.

    • silverhawk1 - 9 years ago

      Is this part of your comedy act? More open OS, for malware maybe. Thanks for playing, you do not do very well at trolling.

  14. vpndev - 9 years ago

    Remember that Apple’s financial year starts October 1 (same as U.S. Federal Gov’t). So their “Q1” is the holiday quarter, and the one just finished was “Q2”

Author

Avatar for Chance Miller Chance Miller

Chance is an editor for the entire 9to5 network and covers the latest Apple news for 9to5Mac.

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