KGI analyst Mingchi Kuo has released his estimates for iPhone sales over the launch weekend. The forecast is set at between 6 – 8 million units, accounting for both the 5c and the 5s. Apple opted not to report preorder sales figures for the 5c, leading some to speculate that demand for the device is weak. Kuo’s guidance does not seem to reflect this as an issue, however.
In 2012, the iPhone 5 shipped 5 million units across its launch weekend. If Apple hit the upper limit of Kuo’s forecast, 8 million units, that would result in sales growth of about 60%.
However, Kuo warns that supply is likely going to be a limiting factor in the near term. Kuo expects the available supply to skew heavily in the 5c’s favour, with only about a third of total supply in the launch period being 5s units. For the holiday quarter, Kuo says supply constraints will loosen to enable Apple to report record shipments of 55 million iPhones in fiscal Q4.