One of the weird details in the WSJ report on the Apple electric car project yesterday was this bit:
Other Silicon Valley giants are looking at autos. Google Inc. has been working on a self-driving car for years. The head of Google’s autonomous vehicle project said last year that the company aims to forge a partnership with auto makers to build a self-driving car within the next few years. A self-driving car is not part of Apple’s current plan, one of the people familiar with the project said.
This morning’s Reuters report contradicts the earlier WSJ report saying that Apple’s electric car will be autonomous.
“It’s a software game. It’s all about autonomous driving,” the source said.
That makes a lot of sense. In 5 years, many cars will have some level of autonomy built in. In 10 years, most cars will be autonomous. Every major automobile manufacturer and most big tech companies see the huge potential here and are actively investing in R&D.
[tweet https://twitter.com/llsethj/status/402446541031755776 align=’center’]
Google and Tesla are the most obvious leaders in this field. Google’s Autonomous car project is well on its way. With public demonstrations already happening and Google lobbying governments for legislation to allow for autonomous driving, the groundwork is already being laid out.
[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqSDWoAhvLU]
Doug Field, a former Apple executive, demonstrated Tesla’s autonomous driving to me a few months ago (along with an insane 0-60mph time). Tesla expects to have at least partial autonomy in its cars within a year and its cars coming off the assembly line already have the hardware on board to do a lot of this.
[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6XS6HE178I]
Reuters also notes that Apple is talking to automotive manufacturing suppliers which would indicate that they’ve moved beyond the theoretical and are now on to the physical aspects of building a car.
Technology giant Apple AAPL.O is learning how to make a self-driving electric car and is talking to experts at carmakers and automotive suppliers, an automotive source familiar with the talks said on Saturday.
The Cupertino, California-based maker of phones, computers and watches is exploring how to make an entire vehicle, not just designing automotive software or individual components, the source said.
“They don’t appear to want a lot of help from carmakers,” the source, who declined to be named, said.
Apple is gathering advice on parts and production methods, the source said, adding that Apple appeared not to be interested in combustion engine technology or conventional manufacturing methods.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
That google project is well, uhm, crap. Like their glasses, or everything from them. I’m very excited to see what Apple comes with if this is true. I’m also a big fan of Tesla.
My biggest concern would be what would happen if someone or something suddenly appeared in front of the car. For example, you could be in the city and a person out walking could be hidden behind a truck or van and they suddenly step in front of this car. Would the sensors have the same reflex as you or I would?
Yes it could react way faster than you. The main problem with automatic driving is, if an accident happens
who’s fault is it. Is it the driver’s? The manufacturer’s? This is an unsolved legal problem.
I think the modern sensors can work faster than humans to apply brakes.
If it’s driven by sensors and computers, their reflexes are going to be a thousand times faster than a human’s. Brakes and momentum are another thing, but reaction time is not an issue for machines!
Sensors and pre-programmed logic are no match for intuition, human judgement and human reflex. Not in a self driving car. Not today. Not likely in 10 years time.
I have an idea: with the insanely sensitive and highly sophisticated sensors which will be in abundance all over the car, I’d design airbag-type things that deploy on all sides of the outside of the vehicle BEFORE any contact is made with another object. This would enhance the safety in dispersing the energy of impact even more than the crumpling of the vehicles body. Of course nothing can change physics sI accidents will still happen if an object or person is thrown in front of the vehicle, but sensors and computers can analyze and react much faster than a human.
Don’t be afraid, those systems are already working well. In my Volvo the “City-safety-system” works well. If I don’t react in time, the car brakes by himself. I “testet” it not on purpose and I can tell you that you never can brake so hard like the car.
I feel as though my biggest concern would be riding in an autonomous car with icy/snow covered roads. How would the car handle itself?
“That google project is well, uhm, crap” – while talking about an existing project
“I’m very excited to see what Apple comes with if this is true” – while talking about a rumour.
Nice logic you’ve got there son.
Not sure what problem Auntie (addressing Auntie) has with the logic of having an opinion about an existing project, while looking forward to seeing an alternative.
Typical Apple fanboy he is…
Yeah, alright. Is it my fault that I like electric cars that are actually cars (like Tesla) and save our planet? Go cry somewhere else.
another truly object comment from a typical ApplePhag
Anyone who actually looks into it a bit more than the casual way that tech sites report on Google’s “self-driving car” can tell you that self-driving cars are a long way from being road-worthy. They fail to find their way in fog, rain, snow or heavy traffic for starters.
No-one … not Google or any other company, has yet found a way around these rather intractable problems. At present, the “self-driving car” (in the absence of guides built into the road), is basically a boondoggle. It’s years away if it happens at all.
It’s a similar situation to things like voice interfaces (Siri) and gesture based interfaces, which also get a lot of ink in the tech press regardless of the fact that they only work *most* of the time. Siri fails too often for a lot of folks to find it useful, as do gestures to control your computer.
When it comes to a car on the freeway “most of the time” is no good. It needs to work 100% of the time and in ALL weather conditions. So far, based on what I’ve read about Google’s problems with their cars, this is pretty much impossible at present.
Yeah your argument is valid, but i think Tesla’s approach here is best. Equip all cars with hardware right now (of course it could also change, but not drastically), and roll out the functionality slowly via OTA software updates.. Lane change, parallel park and cruise control are already working fine in the Model S.
This is actually nonsense. It doesn’t need to work 100% of the time, yet. If it worked 90% of the time, and told the passenger that autonomous control is currently unavailable due to any one of the conditions you mentioned, it would still be incredibly good for human transportation. Any given day around the world, hundreds of millions of people would be transported with maximum convenience. Not to mention how many lives it would save in the future, and how much better for the environment it would be in the long run.
I don’t see how. The bottom line is: how is an automatic car that can’t navigate a traffic jam, night-time, or bad weather possibly be approved for use on roads? Remember we are dealing with the vagaries of municipal governments in that approval process also.
The Segway is a prime example of this kind of thing. The device was purposely built to operate on a sidewalk and inside buildings, but municipal governments around the world and all over the US “outlawed” it’s use in exactly those areas (because: fear), and the entire project just died.
Google cars won’t have steering wheels or pedals. It better work 100% of the time.
I dunno if these problems are intractable per se. Just not solved yet. I agree that there’s a psychological barrier to handing over control, but I don’t think 100% is the threshold – just better than humans, where 30,000 of us are killed in the US each year.
I don’t see why cars in the future couldn’t combine multiple sources of data – cameras, road guides, even other cars on the road.
Right, and if it was scientifically proven to be far safer than humans, I think the skeptics and people that don’t want it would be some truly sad people when/if a family member or friend was killed by a drunk driver, thinking for the rest of their lives that if that drunk driver were not controlling the vehicle, but instead, a computer were, the victims wouldn’t have been in an accident and killed.
After thinking about it over breakfast, I’m almost certain that this is exactly what Apple is planning.
If you think about it, Google’s self-driving cars work primarily on 2D (map) data, then augment that with visual observations, and a touch of sonar. If on the other hand, there were accurate, 3D maps of street level stuff including light poles, curbs, ramps, etc. then a self-driving car would be much easier and much more accurate.
It also wouldn’t fail when it was dark or there was bad weather like Google’s does.
Hmmm … who has been seen lately driving cars around that map the street environment in great detail and in three dimensions lately? Hmmm ….
“For a stupid company, Google sure makes dumb things”
Self driving cars are at least 50 years away for the very simple reason that no one cares. No one wants it. Nobody except idiot tech bloggers.
Funnily enough, I’m agreeing with PMZ today. Wow.
You’re so incredibly wrong it’s sad lol. Take how many people get on Facebook, Pinterest, Instagram, Twitter, etc., and tell them they can continue scrolling and swiping endlessly even when driving. They would be so happy to sit there and do whatever they want.
What’s sad is that there are actually people who believe that self-driving cars as a real standard on real worlds any time in any of our life times is a reality. THAT is sad. It implies a level of delusion I can’t even begin to believe really exists.
Hahah you know how many people above 50 thought there would be smartphones? Next to none.
You have zero knowledge of absolutely anything about it. You have a total lack of imagination and insight into the radically changing world in the way of technology. Those that sit back and say something isn’t possible, or isn’t going to happen are the ones sitting on the sidelines while it completely passes them by. Luckily there are people that change the world, and don’t sit around bitching that it’s not going to. You should look into what’s changed in the last 50 years, I think it might blow your unimaginative mind.
U.S.: 5 million accidents per year, 2 million injuries, 30,000 deaths. Traffic costs $87 billion in wasted fuel and lost productivity.
Don’t do that thing where you project your attitude onto everyone else.
He;s right. Weintraub saying all cars on the road will be valueless in ten year is probably the dumbest and most ignorant thing to fall out of an Apple “journalists” mouth. He’s an absolute moron if he truly believes that statement, and I think he does. Once Apple is rumored to do something, then every Apple “journalist” and blogger collectively becomes a brain dead moron and spouts the dumbest shit they can come up with.
You know why these autonomous cars won’t happen? You quote reasons why it should, right? Look how many people vote. Look how many people care about the Iraq war, actually care not just have a magnet on their car. Look how many people care that their government is spying on literally everything they do without oversight and no resolution to it in sight. Look how many people care that the US is a decade behind the rest of the world in terms of education, technology and social benefits.
This won’t happen because people can’t be bothered to give a shit. Giving a ten year timeline and literally every car you see today will be valueless is the most dangerously ignorant thing ever written about this subject. Weintraub is a moron if he believes that and if you think people care about car accidents enough to get rid of every car that isn’t an autonomous one in no more than the next ten years you’re just as stupid as he is.
You people are so far out of touch with reality it’s scary. Get off your computer, unwrap your lips from your electronic devices and go out into the real world because it’s clear you people don’t spend enough time in it.
He’s one of those types who thinks his opinion is everyones.
No one cares. Not enough to say, HEY, the solution is let the car drive itself! Bingo!
If you even remotely believe that this idea has any traction at all with real people in the real world (aka not the internet)…you are delusional.
Driving is dangerous. Living is dangerous. Apple or Google’s AI driving you around is not a solution. Grow up.
50 years?? No way, man. This space is heating up NOW. Tesla is bringing autonomous features to vehicles this year. That scared the other automakers into releasing similar features over the coming years (2016-2018).
However, there is still a lot to be worked out. There’s infrastructure that’s needed, and open standards need to be put in place so that these cars can sense each other to ensure safety and reliability.
And lol yes, people do care. Maybe the reason many don’t now is because they don’t know that this technology is here
You think all of that can be done in a decade? You’re insane. We have bridges that haven’t been INSPECTED in 50 years and you expect the ENTIRE US to have the infrastructure for these types of cars in less than 50 years? What are you smoking?
It can “heat up” all it wants on the Internet. After all, reading an article about = its heating up.
For as long as you look out and the window and notice, “Nope, today is not the day the entire population gets on board.”…you’re stuck with driving yourself around. Aww.
There are a whole lot of elderly people who would love having a self-driving car. Wait till you get a bit older and you will understand that.
Thats the first time I’ve heard it suggested that the older generation would be the ones to get behind it. Now I’ve heard everything.
I agree, I think a number of the elderly would get behind this as it would give them greater independence without having to worry about hurting themselves or someone else.
I want it for my aging mother, be nice if computers can drive her to the store before I need to take away her keys.
Great. Can’t wait to see what happens during a kernel panic or when a few processes go off the rails and beachball.
Well those are easy to solve. It would have multiple backup computers/systems,and could also slowly come to a stop and disable autonomous control, and then it would have to be manually driven.
You’re joking, right? It’s “easy” to solve? Good plan you have, lets have an autonomous car slow to a sop on a freeway and then alert the driver it’s no longer working and they’ll have to take over.
Uh yeah that is a good plan, I hope your brain didn’t tell you it would stop in the middle of the road, or slam on the breaks. Let’s think here.
This one big misconception in this article: the Autopilot at Tesla is not a development from Tesla itself. It is technology bought from Daimler/Bosch. So Tesla is not really in the forefront in these kind of technology. Tesla had not even any kind of technology in terms of driver assistants before they bought it from Daimler/Bosch.
Daimler is developing these kind of things for more than 20 years. They had this self-driving car already mid 90ties on the same level that the Google Car is these days. I know this, because I was there at that time as an intern. All the driver assistance we have these days like Lane Departure, Traffic Sign Recognition, Adaptive/Dynamic Cruise Control, Stop-and-Go self driving, Emergency/City Stop, … are rooted from these systems. It is even that way the a current Mercedes S-Class could drive for the most parts completely by itself. But because of regulation issues and insurance issues they crippled it by intention. There is an additional system included to detect if the driver is actually driving (holding the steering) otherwise those assistants are disabled.
There is one big difference between Automotive and Silicon Vally. Automotive does not talk about their projects until they are reliably and extensively tested to work in Alaska as well in Mohave vs. Silicon Vally is talking about it even when there is only an early prototype.
Seems like driving is in for bigger changes over the next 5-15 years than the previous century. Electric propulsion, home charging, automated operation, ride sharing.
I guess if Apple is looking to make a huge investment with its $150 billion war chest, this is a great place to start.
So you write “cars will be valueless.” And you figure this out by how much computer technology is in it? Well, this is a tech blog. Maybe you are not able to figure out how much value there is in one car nowadays: Steel, water, human work, rubber and so much more that is threatening this planet and its biosphere.
How will all these cars are powered? Oil? Guess what: Peak-Oil? how much wars are fought today for oil, how much more it will be in the near future? What for? For a few western people that really need to go by car?
Batteries? Where will the power come from? Nuclear plants?
We don’t need another kind of car. We have to think it all over. We are stuck. Cars are 20th century.
A self-driving car is kinda nerd thing trying to perpetuate yesterdays technology and behavior.
Sooo are you suggesting bikes? And what’s wrong with nuclear power? Its one of the cleanest form of engery that can be made. There also has not been any wars that has been about oil in recent years at least openly. We haft to have transportation there is no way around it.
If Apple is serious about this, why don’t they just buy Tesla rather than poaching their employees? This reminds me of that glass company they did not buy and ended up putting out of business while hurting Apple’s own business plans.
Tesla isn’t going to sell to Apple….
One, Apple is betting that it can do a better job than Tesla.
Two, more strong competitors are actually a strategic advantage for Apple (and Tesla). Tesla realized this, which is why they opened up all their patents! Free perpetual license! Because – and this is Elon Musk’s genius – they realized that they are alone vs. all the big incumbents and at this moment their biggest threat is not that another upstart does the transition to E cars better than them, but that it takes too long until that transition happens.
Tesla needs more entrants into the market. They need to accelerate the future.
There might actually be some sort of agreement?!
The more I read on the comments here, the more I realize the majority of Apple fans have very little practical knowledge and are typical of the ‘participation award’ generation of thin-skinned, shallow-minded and generally useless people who can’t do anything that does not involve using an app or social media to accomplish it.
I’d say we are closer to cars driving themselves than we think. The Subaru Outback, (and maybe other cars) when put on cruise control, can follow the car in front of it. If you are going 75 and a car jumps in front of you going 20, the Outback will slam on the brakes and follow the car. When the car moves out of the way or you change lanes, it resumes to 75. The only reason you have to do anything, besides steer, is if you come to a complete stop. Then you have to hit “resume.”
My real concern with the autonomous cars right now is when it is doing its thing and has a wreck.
Who’s fault is it?
You could say that the driver has to be in control of the car, but the google car doesn’t have a steering wheel or any way to control it.
Can anyone speak to that?
honestly…apple is becoming more stupid than ever…. iCAR? if os x and iOS softwares are full of bugs…what makes you think these cars will function safely?
Oh, man that seems nice, I’m very excited to see what Apple has in it’s sleeves.
To say that every vehicle on the road will be valueless in 10 years is a bit ambitious. This is going to be a phase in type of phenomenon that will be spearheaded by ambitious Gen X’ers, Millennials and those given with no other choice to new drivers. I cannot see the general population age 30 and greater to buy in if given the choice. I am 39 and would welcome an autonomous car if the margin of error would be better than that of my own instincts. This is a matter of control. I believe people are reluctant to give up control of driving themselves.
People aren’t worried about driving themselves, ask anyone in Hollywood, or anyone with bunches of money. They may be worried about computer error, but the fact is, in time it could be significantly more safe than humans. Seems really ridiculous that people would rather drive (especially when tired) than sleep/entertain themselves with any number of human entertainment on their phone/tablet.
Good points but there is a large sector of the population which are super reluctant to give up control. Hell there are people where keyless entry to a car is too much for them to handle now telling them they can’t drive it as well.
Will self-driving cars be programmed to abide by local or national speed-limits? If so, how long will owners stand for “standard” cars zipping by them on the highways because that’s exactly what would happen.
Fully autonomous cars will definitely be priced beyond the range of most buyers for about two decades, if not longer. Will drivers of autonomous cars have total control over how fast they’re able to get from Point A to Point B to keep up with the regular flow of traffic?
In the future autonomous cars could raise speed limits. If a computer is driving, it could know precisely how fast or slow it could travel.
This is a non-concern. First of all, going the speed limit while you’re free to do other things saves WAY more time than going much faster but driving yourself. You could get work done, or relax, etc. There will be so much more entertainment stuff built into these new cars… and you will see that, by trade-off, you’ll maybe lose 5 minutes on the way to work. Or 10 if you have a really long commute. The difference just is not going to be big.
Second, as more autonomous cars appear – because of the above advantages, speed limits might get enforced more strictly so the generous +10 or +20 mph might suddenly not be allowed anymore.
Traffic accidents will see a dramatic plunge.
Did not see that coming, but it makes a ton of sense, actually.
The car market is going to be turned upside down with autonomous cars, and electric cars. Autonomous cars means everything changes – the entire use pattern of cars changes
Tesla is well on its way to capitalize on this – they’re set up to go. But the market is too big for just one player. Google is stuck with no hardware, and their autonomous software will therefore be meaningless – they might be able to license it but they won’t control anything, or build cars themselves. They have no manufacturing expertise.
Existing carmakers aren’t going to be able to change quickly enough; their combustion engine tech is useless, their software expertise is non-existent, their computer hardware is crap. They haven’t innovated in years. BMW is the only carmaker to even sell an all electric car and while it looks cool, it’s worse than a Tesla in every metric – more expensive, less power, less range, less usable space.
Autonomous cars will totally change the way we use cars. Interior comfort will be even more important, maybe that’s why Apple wants to make a van – so that it’s a moving office / living room. You could program you car to go places, pick things up, meet you somewhere you are, sent it to NYC to help your aunt move etc. There will be car sharing but my guess is it will remain a very personal piece of technology and people will still want to own one.
Initially I can see people still wanting to drive places – everyone who has a sports car for example has it because they love driving. But there’s plenty of utility cars where driving is just a hassle we’d rather not do – roughly all the non-sports cars. Boring to drive cars. I think use patterns will emerge that will make even the most steadfast car lovers trade the thrill of driving their car for the convenience of being driven around. Sports cars will live on race tracks. Cities will be full of robo cars.
Don’t like cars to brake on its own. Makes me think that someone could just jump in front of your car and rob you easily if they know your car is not gonna run them over.
LOL @ a blogger who screenshots his own tweets to supplement his article
According to the Reuters source, Apple “doesn’t seem to be interested in conventional manufacturing methods”. Hmm, I wonder if Apple has figured out how to make injection molding with Liquid Metal® on an industrial scale? If so, it would be much more revolutionary to manufacture cars this way, instead of just iPhones.