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IDC predicts Apple Watch sales will hit 45M/year by 2019, still lead smartwatch market

Market intelligence firm IDC is forecasting that annual Apple Watch sales will increase from an estimated 13M units this year to 45.2M units in 2019, representing a compound annual growth rate of 36.5%.

The firm predicts that although Android Wear smartwatches will experience even stronger growth of 80.5%, Apple’s much stronger starting point will see it remain the market leader throughout the four year period. By 2019, IDC says, Apple will have a 51.1% market share, with Android Wear next at 38.8% and smaller platforms making up the difference.

The Apple Watch is described as “the measuring stick against which other smartwatches and platforms are compared,” and is said to have two key advantages over other platforms …

Apple’s watchOS will lead the smartwatch market throughout our forecast, with a loyal fanbase of Apple product owners and a rapidly growing application selection, including both native apps and Watch-designed apps.

The growth of Android Wear will be fueled by a mix of technology companies and traditional watchmakers, while it predicts that Pebble will maintain modest growth due to its simple user-interface and low price.

With Apple declining to disclose sales, we’re currently dependent on analyst estimates and channel shipment reports to give some clue as to likely numbers. These estimates are, to say the least, variable. Creative Strategies’ Ben Bajarin recently told a conference that sales will hit a staggering 100M by 2017 – more than double IDC’s forecast for two years later – while Asymco’s Horace Dediu suggested 21M in the first 12 months.

Apple does, however, appear to be pushing hard for growth, with a number of significant price promotions available recently at levels which suggest discounted supply from Apple.

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Comments

  1. presslee - 9 years ago

    Dont tell apple that, i will never see the end of it as i buy my $10,000 apple watch 4s plus edition.

  2. ag80911 - 9 years ago

    All numbers right off their a*** – none of these companies – including Apple provide sales numbers

  3. rnc - 9 years ago

    How can they even guess how many watches Apple sells, if most watches are sold at Apple physical/online stores, and Apple gives ZERO sales numbers?

    • Rich Davis (@RichDavis9) - 9 years ago

      Market Surveys is usually how they do it. they just have people that go into Apple Stores and they just ask people as they walk out of the store questions like if they own an Apple Watch, how many do they own, and are they planning on buying one, etc. and then they do statistical analysis and extrapolate future sales. Obviously they aren’t going to be 100% dead on accurate, but they can get fairly close if they have a big enough sample size.

  4. Rich Davis (@RichDavis9) - 9 years ago

    45 Million Apple watches sold in 2019? I don’t know about that. Maybe. Why? I just don’t think a big enough percentage of iPhone users will buy an Apple Watch and I’m not sure how many that do will constantly upgrade as often as they do their smartphones. I think there is not enough data to support that growth rate, yet.

  5. taoprophet420 - 9 years ago

    Maybe by then Apple will figure out what the main features of the Apple Watch are.

Author

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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