An investor’s note from an AAPL analyst lists the ten things it believes investors would like Apple to achieve in 2019. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says that while they remain optimistic, these are the things needed to reassure a nervous market.
As Christmas is upon us and investors look toward 2019, in this note we lay out the Top 10 holiday wish list for Apple investors heading into the coming year that will help stabilize the stock and improve fundamentals for 2019 and beyond after a nightmarish few months for Cupertino. We maintain our Outperform rating and $275 price target …
Top of the list, unsurprisingly, relate to iPhone sales.
1. iPhone units shipped for FY19 is north of 200 million, which in our opinion is the line in the sand for the bulls/bears.
2. China consumer iPhone upgrades for FY19 hit 30 million units of the 70 million in the window for an upgrade opportunity out of this key region.
After settling the Qualcomm mess, Services revenue is next on the list, with investors needing to understand more about this side of the business as well as see financial targets hit.
4. Services business growth trajectory hits revenue of $45 billion+ for FY19.
5. More transparency and metrics around the services business starting on the upcoming
In particular, evidence that Apple is making progress on its streaming video project.
6. Do a meaningful acquisition of a major content player, movie studio, etc. to catalyze streaming initiatives in FY19 and beyond and ultimately launch a standalone streaming service by the end of 2019.
One item on the list is, ironically, to take advantage of the current depressed stock price.
7. Announce an accelerated buyback program in light of the stock’s 30%+ draconian sell-off since early November.
This would enable Apple to profit from the current low value, and also help stabilize the market.
While the iPhone XR has been welcomed, there have been persistent reports of lacklustre sales. Making the new iPhone design language available at a more palatable mass-market price is something Ives believes Apple needs to do better next year.
8. Lowering prices on some OLED models to ~$600 vs. the current $750 base price in the next iPhone cycle for mid to late 2019 to catalyze upgrades, especially in the all-important China region.
Item 9 seems rather outside Apple’s control.
9. China trade war settles in early 2019 with no disruption to the flagship Foxconn factory and/or iPhone tariff noise and fears from the Trump administration does not become a reality.
While the final one offers a variation on a common wish-list theme.
10. Announces a strategic partnership with Tesla to help lay the path to a new growth opportunity on the EV auto TAM for the next decade, as we still believe a partnership with Tesla is the more likely path rather than the much discussed acquisition scenario between Apple/Telsa – although that still remains a wild card over the coming years.
Do you agree with these ambitions for AAPL in 2019? And which ones do you think Apple is likely to achieve? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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