AAPL revenue grew a remarkable 21% in the holiday quarter, the company setting new records for both revenue and profit. One notable Apple analyst suggests that the good news is set to continue, and is forecasting 15% year-on-year growth when the company reports its fiscal Q2 earnings later this month.
Horace Dediu says the story is a remarkable contrast to some of the doom-and-gloom predictions made when the pandemic first hit …
Dediu notes that AAPL’s share price fell significantly early in the pandemic, with some fearing that nobody would be willing or able to buy premium tech.
The months leading to pandemic caused the share prices of most equities to fall, and tech was not immune. Apple’s shares fell in March 2020 to $57/share. I heard comments suggesting that Apple would collapse as a business with unemployment reaching 25% and nobody willing to pay for luxuries like iPhones.
We know now, of course, that such concern was entirely misplaced, and that working from home, and the closure of many entertainment venues, saw people willing to spend more – rather than less – on their tech.
The “work and study from home” and lockdowns have forced people to buy more technology. Phones, Laptops, tablets are not just tools but lifelines for a society denied other forms of contact […]
The crisis has proven that technology is not a luxury but a necessity, and technology that works better is far more valuable than technology that works barely. Spending on better machines has increased.
Additionally, what else did we have to spend our money on?
The economic fuel for Apple’s growth came from disposable income being unspent on other high-ticket items like dining, vacations and entertainment. Much cash sloshing around the economy surely ended up in an Apple cash register.
Dediu says that we are seeing a trickle of data suggesting that demand is unabated, so he forecasts 15% year-on-year growth in AAPL revenue for fiscal Q2 (calendar Q1).
Given this, I am tentatively projecting top line growth of 15% (vs. 1% a year ago and 21% last quarter) and EPS growth of 11% (vs. 3.8% year ago and 25.6% last quarter.)
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