IDC has published a new report highlighting expectations for the foldable smartphone market next year, projecting huge 30% year-over-year gains driven by the “game-changer” of the iPhone Fold.
Foldable iPhone expected to drive 30% growth in market
From IDC’s new foldable smartphone report:
“Next year will prove exciting for the foldable category with multiple launches pushing the market to 30% YoY growth from just 6% in the prior forecast,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Samsung will kick start 2026 with the Galaxy Z Trifold, introducing tri-fold innovation to mainstream global consumers, building off the momentum of the successful Galaxy Z Fold7 in 2025. Huawei’s foldables running on HarmonyOS Next will also see strong growth, with shipments expected to almost double in 2026. But the real game-changer for the category comes at year-end when Apple enters the foldable space, projected to capture over 22% unit share and a staggering 34% of the foldables market value in its first year, thanks to an expected average price point of $2,400.”
22% unit share and 34% of market value is a fairly high set of expectations for Apple’s first foldable iPhone.
Foldable smartphones have been around for about seven years. So depending on your perspective, IDC’s predictions either highlight how niche the category still is, or how significant an impact Apple can make with a single product.
Top comment by Ryan W
iPads arguably offer the best tablet experience on the market. This would be a killer 2-in-1 device if, when unfolded, it doubled as an iPad Mini. Considering most analysts expect it to borrow from the Air’s engineering, let’s just hope it includes more than one camera lens.
Perhaps the fairest take is that it’s a bit of both.
Foldables do seem to be just now starting to take off. But they still make up a relatively small market overall. Apple’s entry could go a long way toward popularizing the form factor.
Then again, success is certainly no guarantee. This year the iPhone Air launched as a brand new model that ultimately seems to have disappointed in sales—despite user feedback (my own included) appearing strong.
Do you expect foldables to become a big hit in the smartphone market? Why or why not? Let us know in the comments.
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