There’s no doubt that Apple has a definite interest in virtual reality. Tim Cook said on the most recent earnings call that “it’s really cool and has some interesting applications,” and he didn’t see it as a niche product. That’s as big a clue as Apple ever gives about its degree of interest in a product area.
We’ve also seen some interesting hires being made in the VR field, as well as reports of Apple testing various VR-related kit. But all of this is a long way short of predicting when, if ever, Apple will make its VR move.
One Apple analyst thinks he has the answer. “In the next two years Apple will add VR to the MFi Program” is the claim made in a note to clients by an Apple analyst seen by Fortune. There’s just one problem: the prediction is made by Piper Jaffrey analyst Gene Munster – the analyst who kept insisting Apple would be launching a full TV set “next year.”
As a starting point, we expect in the next two years Apple will add VR to the MFi Program (Made for iPhone), which should make it easier for third parties to build virtual reality headsets powered by the iPhone, much like Samsung’s Gear VR today. In the next 5-10 years, we expect Apple to release a mixed reality headset with the long term goal (15+ years) of replacing the iPhone.
We started tracking Munster’s TV predictions in early 2011, with repeats later that year, early 2012, late 2012, early 2013, a bit later in 2013 and – slightly more cautiously – late 2014. In 2015, he finally admitted he’d got it wrong. Having given up on that, it appears that virtual reality might be Munster’s next white whale. We’ll be tracking his VR predictions with amusement interest …
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Out of all the analysts, I think Gene Munster is the worst. Then again, there has never been a statue erected to honour an analyst.
Here is a picture of a statue fitting your description …
https://www.flickr.com/photos/saviedevantnous/2620458811
It would have been funnier if that picture had been displayed with the caption that was on the original file that I linked to – It’s known as a Bozo statue and it comes rom Mali.
Look there’s Elvis
Poor Gene Munster. I remember his insessant predictions throughout the late-90’s and the 2000’s that Apple stock would continue to rise even as every other analyst, aside from Bajarin, put Apple as a sell (so did Michael Dell) or at best a risky hold. At the time, many echoed the same skepticism as those here in the comments and of Lovejoy.
But you know what? He turned out to be right. And if you listened to him, you made out like a bandit. I mean, that’s what happens when you buy only a few shares of AAPL at a ridiculously low price, which $13.75 per share was in August 1997, and before several two-for-one splits resulting in a nearly 2,000% rate of return. You only make that sort of return as an investor because you listened to some crazy Apple fan–Munster was called that and far worse–and followed his advice to, as Charlie Munger says, run into the burning building while lesser men and women flee and the group-think of the crowd outside yells that you’re crazy or, as the Schwab guy told me, “F&*%ing stupid!”.
Munster may have missed the TV call. For those too young or inexperienced to have worked in a field for decades, you’ll learn that it happens in every profession. Analysts who do falter, like any professional, man-, or woman-, up, admit it and move on, as do their investor clients. If Lovejoy thinks, or any of you believe, the missed Apple TV call was a big deal and a mark held against Munster by investors, as an investor who has over the decades benefited from Munster’s advice, I say that you would be very mistaken.
By not getting into the TV business, Apple once again proved that the team left behind by Jobs did its job. As Jobs said, Apple should be proud of the times it said no.
The question is, when was he advising to buy and when was he saying the stock would rise? The old saw about broken clocks being right twice a day comes to mind …
That expression on Tim’s face fits this article perfectly. “Oh really? Tell me more about what you know of our plans Gene. That’s worked out GREAT for you in the past”.
This is great prediction – you will get VR in 5-10 or 15 years – in other words, why are we quoting this jack ass