Reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo at KGI Securities has today published a new research note in which he has some not-so-good predictions for how Apple will fare in the smartphone market during 2016. Kuo predicts that Apple, under the “worst case scenario,” could see iPhone shipments in 2016 lower than what it saw in 2014. Furthermore, Kuo anticipates that Apple will be the only top-five smartphone brand to see a decline in shipments year over year.
The report predicts that under the worst case scenario, Apple will ship 190 million iPhones during 2016, which is lower than the 193 million it shipped in 2014. In the best case scenario, the company could ship 205 million devices. That’s a decline of 18.1 percent and 11.6 percent year-over-year, respectively. Both of these numbers, however, are below analyst expectations of between 210 million and 230 million units.
Additionally, Kuo anticipates that Apple will be the only top-five smartphone brand in 2016 to see decline in shipments year-over-year. This means that Apple would underperform the overall smartphone industry, which is something it has never done.
Kuo points to several reasons for Apple’s slowing shipments in 2016. For one, he says the iPhone SE will have little impact on Apple’s overall performance, though is raising his prediction for the device from 12 million shipments to 18 million shipments. Furthermore, Kuo says that he doesn’t see “many attractive selling points for the iPhone 7.” Building on that, he says that the iPhone needs a visual redesign and new commercial features in order to keep attracting customers.
Despite what looks like a slow 2016, Kuo has been predicting a monster year for iPhone changes in 2017. The analyst has predicted that Apple will refresh the iPhone design with an all-glass, iPhone 4-esque look. Additionally, the company is likely to make the switch to AMOLED displays and could also introduce a new 5.8-inch model.
Kuo has a strong track record when it comes to Apple predictions, meaning these numbers should be taken with some seriousness. This isn’t the first time we’ve heard an analyst issue dire numbers for Apple, but Kuo generally isn’t an analyst who acts like the sky is falling every time Apple underperforms.
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i get 2 different feelings from all these reports.
1 is Apple’s providers are late for what the iPhone 7 should’ve been so the big redesign was pushed back to 2017
2 Apple realized the S variant of the iPhone no longer works as it used to (judging by the 6S numbers) so they switching to a more Android model of 1 redesign every year
I agree that the intended iPhone ‘7’ has been..
We’ve heard for years there’s been a ‘back up’ (more modest update) prototype and the main future, and on this occasion it seems they’ve had to go with the backup..
They know the market wouldnt stomach the most verion for 2 years, so they’ll push it for the ‘7s’ years and not wait 2 years.
sorry typo. i mean “I agree that the intended iPhone ‘7’ has been delayed/ditched”
There is a third opinion, which Apple is imposing on itself.
2017 will be the 10th anniversary of the iPhone, and it needs to be a really revolutionary product. But in order to create the biggest pent up demand for an iPhone ever, this year’s upgrade can’t be quite a 7, it needs to be more of a 6SE. And that ties in well with the claimed reports of a cleaned up rear (no antenna bands across the back) and ditching the audio jack (so it will be old news when the real 7 comes).
So I think Apple will deliberately take a knock this year to win big next year. And considering that the R&D of the current phone is already covered, it won’t mean less money, just a lot less units.
Apple doesn’t take knocks. Ever.
@Bruno. Ever? Buttonless iPod shuffle. PowerMac G3 Cube. QuickTake camera.
I’m only suggestion a knock in numbers, as per my post, not a financial one.
9to5 just posted that other iPhone 7 update and if Kuo didn’t read it, he should. If the new article is accurate, then the iPhone 7 would have compelling reasons to upgrade.
Seeing as I still have a 6 plus…I’m getting it no matter what.
Good to know. So, who wants to call Tim and let him know Apple will sell at least one unit?
hahaha by far funniest comment I’ve read all day
I have him on speed dial so I’ll call him and let him know they’ll be selling 4 more as I’ll be upgrading the entire family.
And really is being loyal to Apple’s annual iPhone refresh cycle any different than a Samsung fan that will willingly and gladly upgrade every year? And since most carriers offer programs that allow you to upgrade annually without penalty and for nominal fees there’s no reason not to upgrade.
Would the elimination of the S updates increase sales? Instead of a new phone every year having one every two years?
Probably not. The non-s updates have generally been more about looks and style and the s updates have been more about tech. Apple seems to be incapable of doing both at the same time.
I thin the ‘S’ updates are the smartest decision Apple ever made in comparison to other manufacturers.
Case in point: the Galaxy S7 has some enhancements but in many ways it’s a refinement of last year’s model. Frankly the numbers game is pretty tired. Everyone would be better off just going by the year.
You could accuse Samsung of skipping so-called innovations each year as they market waterproofing as a defining feature they themselves dropped from the S5 to the S6.
Frankly the future of smartphones is bound to be nothing more than incremental.
There are many things smartphones can gain that aren’t ‘incremental’. Of course, they’re all ‘incremental’ if people that have no concept of the future and are unimaginative and not intelligent enough to know how to change things for the better are thinking about it.
Here’s what fact.
1. Every flagship models have had new processors, regardless of S or non S designation.
2. They typically change various aspects of the product, it’s just a matter of how much change.
3. The Non S is typically a new case style and the S model is the same case, but just enhancements to the non S case style.
There have been some exceptions, but this is the general rule. But they have always announced a new processor, which is the heart of the unit, which is a technology change.
In what scenario could that improve sales? It seems a sure fire way to decrease sales to me. You already have customers that only upgrade every second year either on the major cycle or the ‘S’ cycle. You aren’t doing anything to encourage them to upgrade more frequently. Then you have the customers who upgrade every year who you will now be getting half as many sales from.
Then there’s competitiveness of the device. Sure, many phones are feeling a bit iterative but none the less, two years is still a long time in the industry. If people are on contracts that end at say the 16 – 20th month of a 24 month cycle, you put them in the awkward position of choosing an almost two year phone that has superseded specs and technologies to newer up to date models from competitors. Sure, some people are locked into the Apple ecosystem, but not all buyers are so there’s a good chance you’d lose those customers. That and it plain looks bad when tech sites are covering new Android handsets and the latest model Apple has was something from almost two years ago.
To put it in perspective, the top end model iPhone back in April 2014 was the iPhone 5s. I’d also say my 6s Plus is measurably better than the 6 Plus I had before it in several ways.
Kuo’s announcements are close enough to prove that he has had an internal source for years and the Apple’s secrecy policy is a sieve. All the more reason for Apple to stop reporting in such granularity – no one else reports such detail. Services and non iPhone revenue is increasing rapidly so the focus on only iPhones as the only number that counts is unfair way to judge AAPL. Apple should aggregate revenue sources and make the analysts work for a change.
The iPhone is still their main source of revenue by a large margin. But I get your point.
@tincan2012
iphone is by far the main source of aapl’s revenue, more than 68%
apple is not a service company (their services are quite limited),
is not a content delivery company (is merely a reseller),
is not and never has been a software company (apple’s software is strictly used for its own devices, no licence is granted outside this ecosystem),
is (more than ever) a luxury tech hardware company
high prices, for high net worth and mid-low tech expert customers.
the result is:
ease of use
no user access to the software or hardware
no troubles
big profit as long the company can justify current price levels with people
iphone sales is the main reason of apple’s success and decline.
If you don’t think Apple is a software company, you should learn more about Apple before posting such nonsense.
I believe it was originally a guy named Steve Jobs that said something along the lines of “…Apple is a software company that makes their own hardware.”
(Learn it here; Steve Jobs and Bill Gates Together in 2007 at D5: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWaX1g_2SSQ).
In fact, Steve Jobs loved Alan Kay’s quote, “People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware.”
There’s also this Time Magazine piece, ‘Apple Is a Software Company’
check it out here: http://techland.time.com/2011/10/10/apple-is-a-software-company/
Just because you say that “Apple’s software is strictly used for its own devices, no license is granted outside this ecosystem” does not mean that Apple “is not and never has been a software company.”
I didn’t want to spend my Sunday morning doing this, but after reading your comment I had to.
You are correct by saying that the iPhone is Apple’s number one source of revenue, but anyone with an internet connection & Google knows that. Kudos.
What do you mean by mid-low tech expert customers?
Iphones cater to a wide variety of users in terms of one’s technical abilities. Android caters mostly to poor people that can’t afford something over $350. And who do you think buys $20 Android phones? I would say poor people with little to no education and drug dealers that want a burner phone. :-)
user access to software? What do you mean by that and why would one NEED it?
User access to hardware? What do you mean by that and why would one NEED it?
I disagree that they aren’t a software company. The iPhone is where it is now because of the software. Similarly OS X is a big reason for using a Mac.
Just because they don’t license or sell most of their software standalone in no ways lessens the importance of software to Apple. It’s just as vital a component of their products as the hardware itself. Their software may live in a closed ecosystem, but so does their hardware which is equally locked down and not readily made available for use with Android and other OS. The same business practices in play in their software decision exist for the hardware.
I will reply to you because you have avoided paranoic replies and seems the most polite.
all the hardware companies create their own software, it doesn’t mean they can be defined as software company
Microsoft is, Google is not, Facebook is not, but all of them create software
if you sell your software, build services around it, care to create bug-free code, then you are a software company
Apple, since yosemite:
– has introduced new features in Xcode meant to create new iphone capabilities (home kit, health kit, payments, iCloud convergence)
– introduced apple watch, an iphone extension as you need it even to activate it
– cut off all the features not converging to the iOS experience (most used by professionals): aperture, appleraid, iphoto, introduced OS X sip, introduced photo.app
so apple is now an hardware iphone-centric company, caring more to sell iOS devices than to create less bugged software.
They did also release the Swift language for coding applications, have maintained iTunes and a few other applications (iWork etc), created the new Photos app and the like. I also think the fact they maintain their own OS (iOS, WatchOS and OS X) is very significant.
Certainly they don’t have the same business model as Microsoft, but their software is more central to their platform than say Facebook. It’s end user facing where Facebooks is backend infrastructure stuff. I’d also say MS is starting to enter the hardware game with the surface, Xbox and a few other projects that are heavily hardware focused.
Anyway it might be a case of agree to disagree as I’m sure we have different opinions on what constitutes being a software/hardware company.
“Kuo’s announcements are close enough”
More misses than hits?
Far more hits than misses if you care about scientific facts as opposed to whatever conclusion your brain wants to come to. Sort of like Donald Trump on climate change, well the evidence is there but ehh thoughts beat out truth.
Nothing really new here…tell us something we don’t already know. This is going to be a bad year for Apple. But according to the already released financial results from Microsoft and Google it’s not the only tech company suffering right now.
I’m now starting to think Apple doesn’t introduce new features as often as their flagship Android rivals do because the suppliers simply can’t supply these state of the art components in the sheer volume that Apple’s iPhone requires…so maybe it’s not all Apple’s fault after all? I don’t know…
It’s not. You’re right. For example Apple can’t get 70+ million dual cameras for both the Plus and regular this year, so they just go to the Plus.
Imagine if the rumors of about an Apple car were starting now. The Apple Watch and the car effort show that Apple isn’t waiting for a slowdown before trying something new and isn’t that what people want from corporate leadership?
“I’m now starting to think Apple doesn’t introduce new features as often as their flagship Android rivals do”
I think they keep up pretty well. It just happens that there are many many Android manufacturers out there. I wouldn’t say any single one is massively outpacing Apple, otherwise they’d have fallen behind by now. It’s just that you keep hearing about Android innovations as the phones are released every few weeks where we get one flagship iPhone each year.
I mean, Apples biggest competitor Samsungs new flagship was largely making up for features it dropped last year. The latest Galaxy is a great device as a result, but I think one would be pressing their luck to list half a dozen new features introduced in that model that we haven’t seen before.
And he know this how? I wish rumor sites would quite saying he has this strong track record. He doesn’t really. Not outside of obvious things that any of us could predict.
Except he does if you took 2 minutes to actually look it up. They aren’t things anyone would think of. I’ve seen things people think of by reading these comments sections and most of them are the exact opposite of what you’re suggesting, they’re actually suggestions that are 100% obviously idiotic and not ever coming to an iPhone.
If you aren’t smart enough to realize that this analyst has sources then that’s your problem, do you really have to comment that you illogically believe he is just guessing every time they or MacRumors posts about him?
iPhone 7 is not out yet and they know that it has no new features and no one would want to buy it? Please… Who is paying these analysts?
This analyst has sources that know details. Just because you aren’t given details by people in the know, doesn’t mean a few people aren’t.
Look at his record and tell us he doesn’t have sources.
And based on the rumors the iPhone 7 or iPhone 6SE, whatever they decide to call it, has very little to offer.
They need to come up with something that’ll blow people away, not another redesign of the iPhone 6.
I don’t understand these analysts. They work the same as the truth tellers. Based on vague numbers they predict something which could probably happen or not. As with the horospcope and truth tellers people just believe this crap.
1. Only Apple knows the exact numbers. Point.
2. Apple did say they won’t sell the same number of iPhone this year, why the market is saturated. Point. That means even new features won’t catapult the numbers.
3. Even with less iPhones sold, Appple still makes 98% of all the cash of all smartphone producers combined.
4. Samsung and other Android phones come up every year with new features, which people either don’t need or want, how can it be that they don’t sell the same numbers of smartphones as Apple.
5. It’s true that there are a lot of people buying every 6 month a new smartphone by changing the brand, just because it looks great, but they don’t use the new features or don’t care if they have to buy the same apps again. After 6 months or one year they change again.
6. Apple never used new techniques except for their own inventions to promote a product. Most of these were there before but Apple did implement them the better or easier way.
7. Apparently the iPhone SE sells so great in Asia, that the biggest smartphone producers of China are nearing bankrupty or at least loosing very big money, which is the same. (wasn’t that confimred by the same analyst?)
But then the Chinese Government comes to help and bans Apple products (iCloud, Apple TV, Apple ebooks…)
8. Apple is the only companie (except for the cancerogene pharma companies) which makes billions every year. Now if they once produce less money they’re doomed. Are these shareholders all ill? Do they really believe this can go on forever? They have the same shortsighted view as consumers who buy now a huge horsepowered car because gasoline is cheap now.But next year if prices explode, they have a car that’s too expensive.
I’m not surprised. The 6 series, for me at least, has hit the limits of thin and poor case design. There’s not enough room for a decent battery and the curved case and screen edges are just bad engineering decisions. I have the 128 GB 6s and I love the speed and 3D Touch. It finally has enough RAM and storage. It looks ugly as sin, but I use a case so I don’t really care. My main reason for upgrading from the 5s was because I’m getting older and a larger screen is easier to read.
However, if the 7/7s continues in the footsteps of the 6 series, I’ll just replace the battery after two years and wait to see what the following series has to offer. Apple really needs to rethink the design of the iPhone because after almost a decade it’s really getting old. If you look at the original iPhone and the current one from the front, only the size has changed and too much of the face is wasted space.
Jony Ive has wasted too many years playing with the part of the phone most of us hide with a case and has ignorsd the part we actually interact with, other than to make iOS more and more lifeless and bland. This is bad, both for users and the company.
You do understand that there is a finite number of design changes that can be made to a 2.5″x5″x7mm object with a display. Right?
You’re right about one thing and that is that they can reduce the bezels more. Beyond that I’d personally love to hear your design ideas. I’ll go ahead and explain the designs they can choose from here until the end of time:
•Rounded glass to rounded back
•More slightly rounded glass to flat sides to slightly rounded back
•Square front to rounded back
•Square front to flat sides to square back
Those are the options for the case from now until the end of time.
Here are some options for an unintelligent species:
•Flat front to triangular sides
•Flat front to rounded sides that concave into the phone like a half pipe if you will
So you choose what design you’d like. Hopefully it isn’t those of the unintelligent designs.
I wonder how much the look of the phone case matters any more? I’m sure it does to some people and Apple shouldn’t stop trying but @mpias3785 has a point: most people cover their phones with a case. To that end specs and OS matter more than anything else. I got a 6S Plus right before Christmas for a number of reasons and I’m likely to keep that one for a while and replace the battery if needed. I know I’ve said this before and been wrong but what else ca be added to the iPhone that will get me to buy a new one when my current one still works?
(I’ve thought long and hard about what an OLED would mean and I assume that the battery will get smaller rather than Apple allowing the size to stay the same for longer life).
First I’d lose the skinny aluminum and use a composite like glass-filled nylon, it’s virtually indestructible and can be molded into any shape with any finish and it’s not a conductor so antenna gaps and lines would be history like TV rabbit ears.
I’d lose the curved, unprotected screen edges and make sure the screen was well protected by the case. I’d drop the vertical symmetry and use most of the top as screen area and widen the phone to keep the screen’s aspect ratio. I’d also look into the feasibility of the home button/Touch ID sensor being incorporated into the display. Lastly, I’d include a battery triple the capacity of the one in the 6s, thickness be damned!
That’s just off the top of my head.
Oh, and I’d steal Samsung’s IR blaster so I can cut down on remote clutter.
First of all an IR blaster should 100% never be added.
Anyway, there are numerous great things that are still to come to smartphones and the number one in the near future as I’ve been saying is wireless distance charging, and that will be the biggest feature to smartphones since the iPhone was released.
If wireless distance charging doesn’t get you to upgrade, then never upgrade again, because it is by far the best feature, better than Touch ID even. It will be the most transformative change to smartphones and other mobile devices since their inception.
Another major future feature for smartphones is augmented reality through the camera’s view. You hold your phone up and see information about objects in the camera’s view, due to multiple cameras and multiple sensors on the back, beside the cameras, reading and interpreting the environment, and giving users live information about it.
About you all wanting a thicker phone for more battery, well the best solution is not to make the phone thicker, but to make a battery case that isn’t awful.
You give the new iPhone Smart Connectors and you make a battery case that doesn’t have a hump, but rather it just looks like a slightly thicker version of Apple’s cases. It has a battery which is much bigger than could be added to the phone and it has a Smart Connector where it both gives the iPhone power, and is recharged seamlessly when your iPhone is plugged in. The thing about using the Smart Connector for this is that unlike all current battery cases which require a large bottom chin to plug the lightning port into the iPhone, you don’t need a bottom chin at all, and the case can look almost identical to current cases.
Essentially it would be your iPhone with a case which makes the iPhone last far longer, at the expensive of no visual cues that it is a battery case.
The reason you do this with a case as opposed to making the phone thicker is quite simple: surface area. Inside the phone the battery takes on less than half of the surface area and therefore increasing the thickness of the battery means you are wasting the remainder of the space because you’re only doing it to increase the battery capacity. Whereas if you made a great battery case, the battery would fill the entire case except for some area around the exterior of the case so that it remains pliable such that it would easily snap onto the phone.
Small correction. There are an infinite number of design possibilities for an object of the size of the iPhone. I vehemently disagree with the person you’re replying to, but IMO, you’re not making any kind of strong argument to counter his assumptions.
The problem with wireless distance charging is efficiency. See the inverse square law. No matter how high you get the efficiency you still have to deal with that law. The farther you are away from the charger, the slower the charging will be OR the more power will have to be pumped out. Remember, we’re supposed to be conserving resources these days, not pumping out a kilowatt to charge a phone halfway across a room because we’re too lazy to plug in a cable. I wouldn’t expect this anytime soon.
@Bruno Please give us just 5 new designs. There are in fact very few designs that can be done, and when I say designs I mean intelligent design, not making something different that is obviously completely unintelligent design.
Look at every full-screen phone of the past 9 years. “Intelligent design” is a religious concept – it has nothing to do with design and only a non-designer or someone who doesn’t know anything about design would ever use those two words together.
@Bruno Haha right, intelligent design should never be said. Oh wait.
Intelligent design: a smartphone with a display on the front
Unintelligent design: a smartphone with a display on the front and a display on the back
Do you understand the difference now?
Intelligent design means humans of high intelligence used said intelligence to best make something for which humans use.
Intelligent design: a home button which is round and thus matches a thumb’s natural shape
Unintelligent design: a home button that is triangular
Kuo does not know what the 7 will be or look like (unless they have an insider, which is possible). It’s too early for the rumors to be close to what it will be. Anyway, I don’t believe the novelties (or lack thereof) in the coming iPhone is what will drive growth anyway. Plus the fact that there are little new technologies available to squeeze into the iPhone (even an amoled screen wouldn’t be that much of a novelty) only improvements on existing ones (faster this and faster that, longer battery life, better camera, better speakers, better waterproofing, etc,…). I don’t see a totally new design being a way to sell more iPhone to new customers (that is where growth is).
The fact is the market for premium smartphones (the market Apple is playing in) is probably nearing saturation and is unlikely to continue growing exponentialy for years. The others, are mostely playing the bottom end of the market where growth will continue for some years.
For Apple, who has little new market to conquer with the iPhone, it’s all about people renewing their existing iPhone. New features and new design have a little to do with that, but it’s mostely “Mine is 2/3 years old, time to upgrade (whatever the new one has or look like)”. What would analysts hope for? That we’ll have 2 or 3 iPhones each?
There is plenty of new growth opportunity at the upper end but obviously not as much as when the market was new.
The rumors are ALWAYS accurate months and months ahead of time, so yes, he does. We all know the design. Here’s the design:
The same as the iPhone 6 except the antenna lines won’t go across the back, the headphone jack is removed and the microphone that sits beside it is now slightly closer to the left screw and symmetrical to the right microphone hole. The Plus models have a dual camera setup that is housed in a raised horizontal oval design. And one or both may or may not have a smart connector on the bottom back. That’s it.
It’s really Apples and no one else fault that they can’t pull their shit together.
Most Android flagships have QHD Amoled screens for years now. Apple is still selling their flagships in current year with LCD and not even QHD. Only their 5.5″ phone has 1080p even. And those thick bezels?
I mean people look at iPhone and they see inferior hardware in almost every aspect. And with Apples ecosystem and defaults apps getting more and more unusable (What really used to be the selling point of their OS) compared to Android (Google Maps + Google Drive + Sheets, pages and slides) it just makes sense most people are slowly shifting to Android.
And is if all of this wasn’t enough, people were expecting that at least with iPhone 7 Apple will make all the right moves — which also looks like won’t happen and people will have to wait another year and a half to get what they want.
False – false – false
Once you get to or slightly beyond retina resolution, higher resolution is just a bullet point on a package. AMOLED is fine but QHD on a handheld device is beyond silly and requires more horsepower to manipulate those unnecessary pixels.
Don’t forget, people are getting far more touchy about privacy and go out of their way to avoid anything Google since Google has a piss poor track record on privacy. They make money by selling your data than anything else. Why do you think all those services are free? It’s not out of the kindness of Google’s heart, they need data to mine. The only Google thing I use is YouTube because it’s unavoidable.
Buy Android and become valuable resource for Google.
billions use google services. Google dwarfs apple in scale.Google is the internet to many people but apple isn’t synonymous with smartphones. Google shut down for an hour global internet traffic halved.What do you know about Google. Most People use google services including Apple because they are inexperienced in making massive scale out servers and don’t have a comparable infrasturture to google.Lol
You are delusional. Especially about the ecosystem. How in the world is Apple’s ecosystem getting more and more unusable ? Their ecosystem still outshines anything Google has. Android apps just do not compare with iOS apps unless you enjoy less features and the constant “___ app has stopped working” messages. Hardware wise Apple is just fine. No need for QHD screens which have no benefit and use more power. And show us the reports that show how people are slowly shifting to Android. Android gaining market share does not translate into people leaving Apple.
THE 4 MOST IMPORTANT RELEASES (IN ORDER) 1. NET PROFIT, 2. GROSS MARGIN, 3.CASH FLOW AND FINALLY 4. GROSS RECEIPTS… everything else is speculation, intended misinformation, inaccurate opinions (to manipulate the stock market) and Liars. Some of the worst informers (they select what to print) Motley Fool” a low rent marketing co. inaccurate Chinese commentators, and sometime the 9 to 5 people. This one day pause to eulogize one of their own… So Tuesday instead of Monday… which allows the commentators to “pound the shit” out of Apple. And if Tuesday’s Results are better than average… the commentators will pronounce their 332nd quarterly “Apple’s future is uncertain.” wrapped in the same bullshit over and over again.
This guy has no understanding of what drives Apple’s sales. His forward looking predictions have always reflected his fundamental lack of comprehension regarding Apple and it’s products. Furthermore he greatly changes his predictions from one week to the next!
Much of this negativity stems from suppliers that have suffered economic setbacks in Asia that are little or nothing to do with Apple. These suppliers are desperate to lower the expectations of their investors and they want to blame Apple rather than admit their own errors. In some cases these manufacturers produced more stock than for which they had orders, others have been hurt my dropped orders from cheap Chinese manufacturers, others are reeling from bad investments in Chinese stock and at least one is hurting because Apple dropped them in favor of another supplier. In each case these problems are taken as evidence that Apple’s business is struggling – how foolish!
When you’re referring to his predictions, do you mean sales or hardware changes?
Both. He has has many huge misses in the hardware prediction which demonstrate an utter lack of understanding of Apple and their ethos.
The gets a few things right based on connections with suppliers but he has no good insider in Apple. Most of what he gets right was if fact already known from other sources.
The sales predictions change every week! In this case he raises his iPhone SE prediction by 50%.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Show me where someone predicted the things he said about a model of the watch bring thousands of dollars, before he did. Where someone predicted Touch ID 2 before he did. Etc etc. you’re wrong about the hardware.
Ming is going to have his ass spanked when the results are announced. I predict KGI supposed “respect” is going to fall precipitously.
I bet if he told you apple was going to fail and die you would believe it.
Is seems so early to be jumping to what the iPhone will be in 2017. It’s hard to believe that Apple will ditch their upgrade cycle. I’m not really interested in an all glass phone. I have enough trouble keeping one side protected. Anyway going back to glass just feels like going backwards. Samsung is now doing glass on both sides and they are not doing all that well with it so why copy it? I wouldn’t want an all glass car so why do I want an all glass phone? I want a car made mostly of metal bc it’s stronger and that’s why I want a phone made mostly of metal.
Let’s not forget that most of the time, these analysts are WRONG. Also, how in the hell would they know what features an unannounced product will have? In the end, I don’t give a damn what these people say or think and no one else should.
It’s easy to know what features an unannounced product will have, you are commenting on a site that is devoted to giving details about upcoming Apple products before they launch. This site, and others provide almost ALL details of upcoming devices before they are launched, and anyone that is following these articles knows the basic feature the iPhone 7 will get. One of which was known months ago now, which is that it will not have a headphone jack.
Supply chain is how they know. With Apple sorcing parts from so many suppliers it is. It that hard to figure out what Aplle is planning. You just have to have sources talk about orders.
When you have to order a 80 million camera modules or 120 million led displays What you have planned for release will be revealed early.
Ming Chi Kuo’s track record was 50/50. No need to say more. Well connected my ass!
Here are some of his predictions. He has gotten plenty wrong, but more often he has predicted correctly concerning hardware. Some things people wouldn’t know unless they had sources such as an upgraded Touch ID and Apple Watch models in the thousands of dollars range.
•iPad Air 3 to be released in 1st half of 2016, ‘unlikely to have 3D Touch because of production issues’ (didn’t know the name, not relevant)
•iPhone 6s coming in fall with tougher aluminum case in new colors, including Rose Gold. Also featuring Force Touch; A9 chip; 12-Megapixel camera and more
•The fifth-gen iPad will be significantly thinner and lighter with new bezel, 7.5mm thickness, and 64-bit A7X processor.
•Apple will unveil the iWatch in the third quarter. There will be two models with 1.3-inch and 1.5-inch flexible AMOLED displays. Expect wireless charging, a 200-250 mAh battery, a Sapphire cover, biometric recognition capabilities, and NFC (he also said there would be a model in the thousands of dollars range)
•Apple will unveil a 12-inch, redesigned MacBook Air with Retina display in the fall.
Many of these things are already known from other sources, he was just repeating what was already rumored.
No they in fact were not, but that’s a nice argument when your argument falls through. You go ahead and show us these articles and I’ll believe you, but I know they don’t exist. This analyst predicts far further out than anyone, hence why he has to amend predictions more than anyone, but his initial predictions are mostly accurate save for timelines on the launches.
The evidence is on the internet if you care to look, but I know it’s easier to be right if you ignore facts.
I’m not saying he’s always right, I’m just going off of data which is that he is right, often. As an example of when I thought he was dead wrong: when he predicted earlier this year that the iPhone 7 will be between 6.0-6.5mm thick. I didn’t at all believe they could go from increasing 0.2mm to decreasing a full mm one year later, and I still don’t. Now, they may hit that with the OLED display iPhone in 2017.
Kuo said the same thing 3 weeks ago; this prediction is already on my claim chowder list. As many have already pointed out, his “strong track record” is 50% accuracy at best. 9to5 should give an intern the job of analyzing Kuo’s (and other ‘major’ analysts’) Apple predictions of the past 5 years. I bet that article would swamp the site.
Kuo has had to change his iPhone SE sales projection by FIFTY percent, what makes anyone think he will be more prescient about the so-called iPhone 7?
Well completely ignoring anything he says, anyone intelligent knows that the iPhone 7 or whatever they call this upcoming iPhone is going to not sell as well and there will in fact be a decline due to the features or lack thereof.
You don’t know the first thing about what you’re talking about.
Are you a shareholder or something? You can’t actually think there won’t be a decline.
Fact?
Can you corroborate what u call are facts ?
You are nothing more than a troll .
Yes im a share holder… Decline is a possibility… But far from a FACT… Any one who calls it a fact is being a troll.
True investor is looking way beyond 2 quarters..
Kuo can predict a downturn this year and and stellar year next year.
The truth is the 6/s and 6/plus external design is just blah. Even if Apple releases the iPhone 7 with ceramic backs it still going to have huge chins and lcd displays. Improved camera sensors and dual sensor camera are not enough either. The truth is that the external iPhone design is getting stale.
3D, Live Photos and other things are not wow factors. Apple needs a sleek design for the iPhone and ditch the gigantic bezels. All the flagshio phones now have aluminum bodies and other features that doesn’t make The iPhone a must have or stand out from the rest of the pact.
Good internal components and software are not enough. The 6 series of iPhones were lazy external designs. Even if the 7 gets a ceramic composite back panel it is still going to have the same width and heighth. Same huge too and bottom bezel. It’s been 9 years of the same front look to the iPhones. People want and deserve something new.
Apple should started looking at OLED displays 12-18 months ago for this years model and shrunk. Phone. Instead they are going with the same stale design.
18 million shipments seems low for iPhone SE. Didn’t Apple say that they sold 30 million 4″ iPhones in 2015? Kuo is more accurate than most analysts but has been wrong before. We should get some indication on Tuesday evening when we get the revenue projections for the current quarter. If history is any guide we’ll also start seeing some leaks of iPhone 7 components next month.
May is the month Apple usually stops prototyping the 2-3 designs they have for the year and selects the model they will go with in September and starts higher production test runs.
Design is a difficult thing and I’m glad I don’t have to do it for a living. Think of a car: four wheels, a steering wheel, engine, and a body with doors in it. All cars are basically the same concept. Now think of a Smart Car, a gull wing Mercedes 300SL, an F350, a Ferrari 488 GTB, and a Mini Cooper. All of them have the same BASIC design, yet all are radically different implementations of that design. So sure a phone is a rectangular touch screen in a case containing computer parts and a battery, but I think a really clever designer could do some radical things with these constraints. Apple isn’,. Samsung isn’t, LG isn’t, I don’t think ANYONE is really exploring what could be done with cell phone technology and design. Frankly I’d like to see what some young and hungry university design majors could do with the cell phone. I think it would blow all of us away. I have mulled over a few ideas but I’m an actor not a designer.
Well you’re dead wrong if you think you can design greatly different smartphones. Cars can have innumerable designs because they are enormous and have bodies where designers can do nearly whatever they want to make it look different and not affect much handling or aerodynamics at all, because most cars are going too slow for it to matter.
Apple has the best designers in the world. Also, designs don’t need to change, I mean people want them to change and see new things, but there’s a point where it wouldn’t be intelligent to change it because it could only get worse. As an example, a MacBook has very little room to go now. It can get thinner and lighter and the bezel can be reduced some more, but that’s about it.
Size is not relevant. Take wristwatches for example. Much smaller, much less flexibility in shape, yet a million different designs. Or purses. All perform the same function, have a limited range of sizes, but a million different designs. I would agree that Apple has some wonderful designers. Unfortunately, they are staying within some self imposed constraints. It’s like Cessna. They had some great designers and engineers, but for decades all of their planes were high wing, with struts, and an engine in the front. Even their helicopter, the Cessna CH-1 Skyhook looked like a 172 fuselage that had been converted into a helicopter. Apple is stuck in the same place. They really need to explore other designs. What about a phone the size of the SE but that opens like a book with a screen on each side. You’d double the screen size and battery but with a device that could be used one handed if you wanted to. How about a phone mounted in a bracelet. think the data pad that Leela wore in Futurama. Vastly more battery life plus all the advantages of the Apple watch with a screen large enough to read for someone my age. Yes Apple, Samsung, and the rest are all stuck on the idea of a phone as a rectangular box with a touch screen on one side. It’s time to look around. Remember, phones had tiny screens and chicklet keyboards until the iPhone overturned the apple cart. It’s time for the next revolution.
I think a lackluster iPhone 7 is just what apple needs to shake things up, just like Galaxy S6 was a failure to Samsung and it made some nice improvements on S7
KGI and Kuo’s tongue is growing longer and longer by the day.
Few correct preddictions on product fearures and now they are Predictiong marketing and sales and Apples buisness potential.. On which they have Zero expertise and trackrecord.
They have joined the dark side in manipulating the stock …..like many others do…
Last push.. Earnings is in two days… Lol
F- Them All.
Sorry for all typos!!!
Rather be sorry for all non sense
Google cult of Mac KGI and read that article and then tell us how inaccurate he is.
I did.. And exactly as i mentioned in my post.. He has no track record on the buisness end of things.. Just product features..
As soon as I heard that the iPhone 7 would’t have a headphone jack I started looking for a used IPhone 6s on eBay – which I bought for $649. I am NOT giving up my custom-moulded Westone in ear monitors.
You do know there will be adapters right?
Dongle sales will rise. Since the lightning port has no provision to pass analog signals, these dongles will require A/D, D/A converters, audio amps and power. They’ll also vary widely in quality, cost and power requirements. Loss of simple analog I/O will be a deal breaker for many. Sales are dropping as it is and Apple really can’t afford to alienate users just to feed Ive’s vanity.
Has nothing to do with Ive and everything to do with intelligently moving the phone into the future. I know you and others want the headphone jack to take up ample internal space for the next forever, but luckily we have intelligent people at Apple that refuse to be help back by old technologies that need to move into the future. You know…why these tech companies exist and such.
I think it really depends on which rumours are true.
Removing the headphone jack is a huge thing for most, so the headphones supplied need to be of decent quality and not some cheap headphones – can imagine apple shipping lightning cable ones instead of bluetooth.
The current design hasn’t wowed as many people as previous iphones, so if they keep the same design, then again, many will be disappointed.
A faster processor, more ram, better camera – are all expected… but with rumours the new double camera is only for a ‘pro’ iphone 7 is another disappointment.
Choosing to go slimmer over improving the batter more – another disappointment.
Still sticking with LCD screen – another disappointment.
All glass design probably coming next year – another disappointment.
With current rumours is just seems that we will be getting an iphone 6SE instead of an iphone 7.
Already i am considering either downgrading to iphone SE or 6s (currently using the 6plus and it’s too big for my hands…ive tried to like it…but it’s too big).
At least by downgrading i will still end up with better features than my current phone, and i will save money.
What if the biggest feature of next iPhone would be two times better battery performance?? It seems they are on it.
That’s not even remotely possible, aside from a battery case which I described above.
6S was the most worthless S ever and it is even obvious from its introduction video Jony Ive narrated. I watch every one of them tens of times, but this video for the 6S oddly kept repeating the same footage over and over and kept repeating the same lines over and over, with some textual ornamentations, in an unusual way that Apple normally wouldn’t. So Apple knew that 6S was less than a regular S. I usually thought they were stuck in the R&D phase of the new technologies because one year is usually not enough to study a major new technology but apparently the issue is beyond that.
mostly for me it is the diversity that will kill it, 2 Models were good enough, now we are with 4 models?! the 2 most plus the C and SE?!
they should spend the energy in developing up ahead and not side ways … thats was Apple about, inovations and creativity. the old models were deleted for some good reason, raise them from the dead eats resources that are more usuful in bring new ideas to the market.
It’s all very simple. If Apple want to sell millions of phones we don’t need bigger screens, redesigned headphones, or any other paraphernalia. Just give us batteries that last a week and you’ll desecrate the smartphone market. Put all your r&d into that.
Yeah plugging your phone in at night is so inconvenient.
Yes but having your phone die after six or seven hours while you’re travelling IS inconvenient.
And come on… How you could you NOT see improved battery duration as a benefit?
mmm on the cristal ball news… elvis is back… something tells me iPhone 7 is going to be a big surprise.
You guys also “forgot” quotes around the leading word in the article, “reliable.” Notice how I put “forgot” in quotes? We all know you did it on purpose, being now the most famous click-baiters in the Mac “news” scene.
Why does anyone listen to this idiot? There’s no way he can tell what consumers want from a product that isn’t even available. He’s just one person and can only speak for himself. Honestly, what this dude is saying could be said about any future product from any company. Not a enough of an update to upgrade to? Says who? Kuo is not actually a prophet. He merely guessing and I doubt he’d be qualified for even being a good crystal ball reader. To come out with these predictions he just being arrogant and if he’s wrong, I’m sure he won’t make any public apologies to all the investors he’s lead down the wrong path.
iPhone 6 users will be ready to update this Fall when their 2 year contracts run out. Most people went from 4S to 6 skipping over the 5 series and seeing no value in the 6S. Personally, I am looking forward to getting an SE this Fall but if the 7 comes out with an amazing camera (that can do wide angle shots) then I would consider the 7 instead.
Not convinced – on the global scale – that the ‘two year’ contract cycle remains a material significant number as at Autumn 2014
Last year at this time Kuo said Apple would ship 49.4 million phones, but Apple shipped 61.2 million. Low by 20%. Most others were at least within 5%. How can you call that a strong record? He sometimes predicts a feature right ( a little before it’s released) but his numbers are awful.