KGI Stories January 8

AAPL: 117.91

1.30
Stock Chart

In a new report out this morning from noted analyst Ming-Chi Quo at KGI Securities, we find the size of the new iPad form factor, expected in Q2 still in flux indicating that Apple may still be deciding between different sizes.

The new models will come in 12.9”, 10-10.5” and 9.7” versions. We note the 12.9” model will be the second generation of the existing 12.9” iPad Pro, the 10-10.5” model will be the high-end model equipped with a narrow bezel design, and the 9.7” model will be the low-priced option. The former two models will have an A10X chip manufactured by TSMC (2330 TT, NT$183.5, N), while the latter comes with an A9 chip made by Samsung LSI. Although we estimate iPad shipments in 2017 will drop again YoY to 35-37mn units, we except the decline to narrow to 10% from 2016’s roughly 20%, given that the 10-10.5” model may see more demand from commercial/ enterprises and tender markets, while the low-priced 9.7” model may have a greater shipment contribution and likely account for 50-60% of total shipments of new iPads.

Perhaps most interesting for AAPL stockholders is the psychological impact of iPad sales leveling off and greater ASP…

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KGI Stories November 4, 2016

AAPL: 108.84

-0.99
Stock Chart

KGI‘s Ming-Chi Kuo is out with his latest iPhone sales numbers forecast which shows the iPhone 7 line falling in sales for the second consecutive year. The primary drivers are weak demand in China, slow shipment volume of 4.7” iPhones in 1Q17, and the lack of a new iPhone SE in 2Q17.

  1. We are conservative about the sell-through of the 4.7” iPhone and Apple’s market share in China. As such, we estimate 1Q17 iPhone shipment volume of 40-50mn units, lower than the 51.2mn units in 1Q16.
  2.   Shipment volume in 2Q16 came in higher than expected thanks to upbeat demand for the iPhone SE. However, in order to keep gross margin at a high level and to avoid cannibalization of high-end models, we do not expect Apple to launch an upgraded iPhone SE in 2Q17. Without contribution from a new model, we forecast total iPhone shipment volume will reach 35-40mn units and fall YoY in 2Q17, lower than the 40.4mn units in 2Q16.

Falling sales may force Apple to exert pressure on its suppliers to reduce costs starting this month or next…

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KGI Stories September 29, 2016

AAPL: 112.18

-1.77
Stock Chart

Reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has released a new report further forecasting that the 2017 iPhone will likely adopt and glass front and back design like the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4s. The idea seems to be that the new Jet Black iPhone 7 has proved highly popular with customers due to the appeal of its glossy finish, and glass would make it much less scratch prone; Apple has recommended customers use a case with the glossy aluminum model to avoid ‘micro abrasions’ from general usage.

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9to5toys 

KGI Stories May 11, 2016

AAPL: 92.51

-0.91
Stock Chart

Contrary to a previous report, KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo now believes Apple’s next-generation 5.5-inch iPhone, likely to be called the iPhone 7 Plus, will have a dual back camera across the whole line. Previously, KGI is quoted as saying only the high end configurations of the iPhone would adopt the new camera technology:

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KGI Stories April 24, 2016

AAPL: 105.68

-0.29
Stock Chart

Reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo at KGI Securities has today published a new research note in which he has some not-so-good predictions for how Apple will fare in the smartphone market during 2016. Kuo predicts that Apple, under the “worst case scenario,” could see iPhone shipments in 2016 lower than what it saw in 2014. Furthermore, Kuo anticipates that Apple will be the only top-five smartphone brand to see a decline in shipments year over year.

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KGI Stories April 11, 2016

AAPL: 109.02

0.36
Stock Chart

A KGI investment note seen by 9to5Mac suggests that Apple Watch shipments will fall by more than 25% this year. The note estimates 2015 sales at 10.6M units, and predicts that full-year shipments this year will be below 7.5M units. The fall would be even more dramatic in real terms, as it would be comparing 12 months of sales in 2016 against 8 months of sales last year.

The company cites two reasons for the forecast. First, that the wearable device market is still a fledgling one, not yet mature in terms of behaviour. But KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo also believes the Watch itself falls short …

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