A new report from KGI today includes a drop in the firm’s estimate for 2017 iPhone X shipments, its forecast for 2018-2019 performance, and how far behind Android devices are all thanks to Apple’s new TrueDepth camera system. This powers the new facial recognition and tracking system for Face ID unlocking, Animoji, and more.

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The latest forecast from Ming-Chi Kuo sees a lowered estimate of iPhone X shipments in 2017 to 30-35 million units from a previous estimate of 40 million. This is not because of demand, of course, but instead due to issues with the TrueDepth Camera production and assembly.

However, even with initial production difficulties, Kuo writes that the outlook for 2018-2019 iPhone growth is still positive. He adds an estimate that Android devices are now likely 1.5-2.5 years behind Apple when it comes to matching its TrueDepth camera experience. If this pans out, this could put Apple in a better position to continue its iPhone growth by giving users more reason to switch from Android.

When looking at KGI’s estimates for iPhone 8/8 Plus, there is some concern of demand dropping starting in 2018 when iPhone X production hits its stride. But with better than expected iPhone 8 Plus sales, Kuo says there isn’t much worry about long-term.

The analyst note also mentions that while the initial iPhone X issues may create a short-term drop of iPhone supplier shares, this will provide a good time for those interested in making medium to long-term investments in the vendors who will be supplying new components.


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