iPhone sales 2016

KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo – an analyst with an excellent track-record on AAPL – has forecast that year-on-year iPhone shipments will continue to fall this year, and end up well below market expectations. In an investment note seen by 9to5Mac, KGI says that total 2016 iPhone shipments will likely fall below 200M units, and that the iPhone 7 will see lower sales than the iPhone 6s/Plus.

Kuo says that lower-than-expected iPhone 6s/Plus sales showed that replacement demand was falling in developed markets, while new demand from emerging markets has not yet picked up the slack. KGI does not believe that the launch of the iPhone 7 later this year will be sufficiently appealing to see the iPhone return to growth …

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IDC’s latest quarterly mobile phone tracker contains a mix of good news and bad for Apple. It starts by noting that 2015 was a fantastic year for the company in terms of both sales numbers and average selling price.

2015 was a tremendous year for Apple and the iPhone as shipments hit a new record of 231.5 million for growth of 20.2% over 2014, which was nearly double that of the overall smartphone market. More importantly, Apple was able to grow its ASP from $663 in 2014 to $713 in 2015.

Things get tougher this year, it suggests, forecasting flat sales for the year (or a drop of 0.1% if we wanted to pretend that forecasts could ever be that accurate) …

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