IDC’s latest quarterly mobile phone tracker contains a mix of good news and bad for Apple. It starts by noting that 2015 was a fantastic year for the company in terms of both sales numbers and average selling price.
2015 was a tremendous year for Apple and the iPhone as shipments hit a new record of 231.5 million for growth of 20.2% over 2014, which was nearly double that of the overall smartphone market. More importantly, Apple was able to grow its ASP from $663 in 2014 to $713 in 2015.
Things get tougher this year, it suggests, forecasting flat sales for the year (or a drop of 0.1% if we wanted to pretend that forecasts could ever be that accurate) …
2016 will be difficult, it says, due to slowing growth in Apple’s core markets of the USA, Europe and China. The greatest growth at present is in markets currently buying cheaper brands, like India and Africa.
The mature market slowdown has some grave consequences for Apple, as well as the high-end Android space, as these were the markets that absorbed the majority of the premium handsets that shipped over the past five years.
However, IDC believes that Apple’s move into trade-in programs for both older iPhones and Android handsets will help with sales, the firm forecasting that ‘peak iPhone‘ will be over by next year.
However, growth should return in 2017 and beyond as its trade-in programs will expand into markets outside of North America and help drive churn.
Apple launched its first trade-in program back in 2013, but with limited impact. You’d almost always get a better deal selling on eBay or similar and then paying cash for your new iPhone. But Apple really upped its game last year, launching first a trade-in scheme for competitor phones, then the iPhone Upgrade Program, a trade-in scheme for broken phones and a ‘trade-up with instalments‘ plan.
IDC does, though, believe future iPhone growth will be relatively modest, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 3% between 2016 and 2020.
The company last week reported that Apple Watch sales hit 4.1M in the final quarter of 2015, making Apple number two in wearables behind Fitbit.
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That may all be true, but raking in ≈ 100% of the profits will still equate to ≈ 100% of the profits.
I wouldn’t trust IDC.
They predicted that windows phone would over take iOS.
Sounds … interesting. Do you have a link?
Here is it.
http://www.gsmarena.com/newscomm-4357.php
Its funny because its already 2016 and WP is not even holding on.
Thanks – amusing indeed.
Just waiting for my comment to be approved.
The Windows phone is decent. I picked up a Windows Lumia phone this week as an inexpensive ‘holdover’ phone until the IP7 comes out this fall, since my 5s crapped out last month. After using the Lumina this week, there really are some nice qualities to it. I sure there are things I haven’t figured out yet, since I have been iOS dedicated since the IP3. But, this particular phone does have a very crisp screen, the camera is well above average, and the UI is more than passable, in fact it has some features I would love to see in an IP (live tiles, and ‘always on’ for example). The Windows app store is very weak. But if the IP7 has the moderate upgrades that I read about on this site yesterday, then I might just stick with this until the IP7S or 8 comes out…
I agree; WP is a very decent phone/OS. Why this has such a low marketshare is unfortunate for MS; they shouldn’t have discontinued so often. Windows CE is dead, now it’s Windows Mobile. Windows Mobile is dead, now it’s Windows Phone 7 Phone Edition, The Windows Phone 8, then Windows Phone 10, which unifies everyone.
At least it’s vastly superior to Android, that’s a given.
What will you do without the Apple ecosystem? I couldn’t do without iMessage, iCloud Photo Lib, AddressBook, Notes, Calendar, iBooks bookmark syncing, control AppleTV, Safari bookmarks, tabs & history syncing…
Thats a great point, I am sure the start & stop with so many versions killed any small chance of gaining traction. Missing some of those will be the hardest part for sure! I love being able to text from imessage on my MBP, that will be the biggest pain point! Some of the others you mentioned ibooks, notes sync, bookmarks – I personally have not invested in, so wont be missed. But the ATV remote, and the simple sync to itunes for music, and missing many apps – will be missed.. It will be a personal challenge I guess, LOL. Some people want to run a marathon, I just want to make it though Summer with a non-iOS device, LOL. I know, really lofty goals, right?? hahah
Here’s why IDC have absolutely no idea what they’re talking about generally. The report stating ‘IOS doomed by Windows Phone by 2016’ linked to in the Wired article below from 2012 has been removed. Embarrassed much IDC 😀
http://www.wired.com/2012/06/why-idc-predicts-windows-phone-will-surpass-ios-by-2016/
Let’s wait and see. Many have predicted Apple sales slowing yet have been wrong. Like last quarter was not a slow down, it was a world record breaking quarter for any single company in the world. Only because the anal-ists tried to predict an insane amount of iPhone sales the market reacted like Apple fell over and died. Quite the contrary however in the real world.
IDC thinks Windows Phone will still be a thing in 2020. Now THAT’s funny.
0.1% drop…. Ic..lol