SAI breaks down Piper Jaffay Apple follower Gene Munster’s predictions for 2011, complete with probabilities.  I’ve got to say, these are pretty conservative.  (I like Appleholic’s 2011 list much more).  Anyway, here we go…

- Verizon launch of the iPhone: Probability 95% (March qtr) (our est)

- Mac App Store: Probability 100% (Jan. 6 launch)

- iTunes cloud services: Probability 90%

- iPad geographic expansion: Probability 100%

- iPad subsidies from carriers: Probability 80%

- OS X Lion: Probability 100% (summer 2011)

And here’s when we can expect upgrades to the hardware:

- iPhone (March quarter). We are modeling for Apple to launch a CDMA version of the iPhone at Verizon in the March-11 quarter. The fifth generation iPhone will likely ship this summer with NFC capability.

- iPad (spring). We believe the second generation iPad will launch in spring 2011.

- Macs (uncertain). We have moderate confidence that Apple will release redesigned MacBook Pros in 1H11 and redesigned iMacs in 2H11.

- iPods (fall). As usual, we expect Apple to refresh its iPods in the fall.


I’d also note that he can’t give up the dream of an Apple HDTV (As in screen included) as if it is too complicated to plug in an AppleTV to your HDTV HDMI port?  Oh well, maybe he’s right.  It will be tough to find a display partner that isn’t already building Android/GoogleTVs, however.

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