KGI Research’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analyst/firms with a respectable record on Apple forecasts, updated its iPhone sales expectation numbers this weekend for the holiday quarter and Q1 of 2015.

Strong iPhone shipments in 4Q14. We forecast overall iPhone shipments will surge 82% QoQ to 71.5mn units in 4Q14, given robust demand for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The iPhone 6 Plus supply shortage implies not only robust demand, but also confirms our concerns regarding constraints within the supply chain. We believe 4Q14 iPhone shipments will be stronger if supply chain constraints are eased.

Kuo notes that the iPhone 5c and 4s which are still sold in emerging markets [like Virgin Mobile in the US?!] will be discontinued in 2015 after promotions that ironically will improve low end sales numbers in Q1 2015. Subsequently, average price per device sold will also drop significantly for Apple in Quarter 1…

The removal of the iPhone 4s and 5c will also make TouchID and features like Apple Pay ubiquitous across Apple’s phone lineup.

As for the iPhone 6/6 Plus mix, KGI expects it to settle at a 2:1 ratio favoring the iPhone 6 once supply constraints ease up. That is close to what we’ve seen from analysts and our own site.


KGI forecasted a similar holiday spike/2015 fall for iPads last month.