After last week predicting strong sales of iPhone XR in China, Kuo now believes that the XR will broadly sell better than the iPhone 8 did last year. Contributing factors include the updated iPhone design with bezel-less display and dual SIM compatibility.
In a new analyst note today, Ming-Chi Kuo detailed updated estimates for Q4 (Apple’s Q1) iPhone sales. In particular, he believes that iPhone XR sales will be better than expected, bumping his prediction from 33m-35m up to 36m-38m for the holiday quarter.
If Apple achieves those numbers, Kuo says it will outpace iPhone 8 demand from last year. The analyst attributes the bullish iPhone XR outlook on the new bezel-less display, updated design, dual SIM feature, and improved battery life.
The note also predicts that XR will beat the smartphone market when it comes to sales in Q1 next year. While most companies see a 30-40% QoQ decline in smartphone sales after the holidays, Kuo estimates Apple will only experience a 25-30% drop.
With the improved XR estimate, Kuo believes that Apple will see overall shipments of 78-83 million iPhones for Q4, up from his previous prediction of 75-80 million units.
Finally, Kuo says that the XR will be key to Apple’s 2019 YoY iPhone growth, pegging that number at a 10% increase.
In a separate note today, Kuo shared that we’re likely to see Apple continue with IP68 water resistance in its flagship models. Going over third-party vendor predictions, he also confirms the expectation that Apple will offer new versions of the 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch OLED iPhones along with a 6.1-inch LCD model next year.