A new analyst report today from Nomura, seen by CNBC predicts that Goldman Sachs could see notable losses on Apple Card customers if a recession happens within the next few years. This estimate is based on the firm’s belief that it will take several years for Goldman Sachs to break even on the cost acquiring of Apple Card users.

Goldman Sachs has said that it isn’t worried about Apple Card profitability and is more focused on the long-term. However, Citigroup allegedly pulled out of doing an Apple Card deal due to profitability doubts. Today, Nomura analyst Bill Carcache detailed in a note that he believes Apple Card will be more vulnerable to losses as it is expected to create lower revenue than competing products.

“The Apple Card portfolio may generate lower revenues and face higher loss content relative to the industry average,” he wrote.

Specifically, Carcache estimates that it will take Goldman Sachs four years to break even on its Apple Card customers.

In his analysis, which assumes that Goldman spends $350 to acquire new users, the bank will begin to break even on a customer after four years.

If a recession does hit the US economy in that window, Goldman could see losses on Apple Card.

Goldman’s product is “highly sensitive” to rising net charge offs, and the bank will begin to lose money if losses reach about 8%, Carcache wrote. In the last recession, net charge offs surged in 2008 and peaked at above 10% in 2010.  Goldman declined to comment on the research note.

Compounding those potential issues, Carcache notes that “outsized headwinds” could be a factor in the same timeframe as peak losses normally occur from credit card loans at the two-year mark.

Making matters worse, issuers typically experience peak losses on credit-card loans after about two years of origination, and Carcache expects the bank’s portfolio to face “outsized headwinds” in that period.

Nomura’s report comes as we heard last week that Apple Card approvals have been seen as overly generous, which has caused some concerns about the risk that Goldman Sachs is taking on.

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About the Author

Michael Potuck

Michael is an editor for 9to5Mac. Since joining in 2016 he has written more than 3,000 articles including breaking news, reviews, and detailed comparisons and tutorials.