AirPods are set up to have an amazing holiday quarter and a new research note predicts that they will soon overtake the $4 billion quarterly revenue that Apple saw at the peak of iPod in 2007.
Asymco published a research note today looking into the potential quarterly revenue from Apple’s Wearables, Home, and Other category. While last year was when Apple Watch surpassed $4B in revenue for a quarter back in Q4 2018, now it looks like it may be AirPods‘ turn.
Asymco notes that it’s tricky to tell exactly what the revenue of any individual product in the Wearables and Home category is since Apple doesn’t break out the numbers. But by estimating Watch revenue and subtracting it from the total category figure, you can arrive at an estimate for AirPods.
The problem lately has been that AirPods have become huge unto themselves. There is literally no information about AirPods sales as a product category. The only option is to guess Watch and subtract it from Wearables and then guess again the portion of “non-Watch Wearables & Home” that is AirPods.
Based on those numbers, AirPods could overtake the peak iPod revenue of $4 billion next quarter. Asymco also believes Apple will see over 50% growth year over year for Wearables.
Looking forward to the next quarter, I am expecting a 51% increase y/y for Wearables and 24% growth in Watch. This results in a Watch revenues about $5.2 billion and non-Watch $5.7 billion. Now if we assume $1.7 billion for non-Watch-non-AirPods (i.e. Apple TV, HomePod, Beats, iPod, other) then this quarter AirPods will have overtaken peak iPod.
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