Based on supply chain data of smartphone production levels, a market intelligence company is predicting iPhone market share for Q4 2021 will hit 23.1%. That would be up from 15.9% last quarter, and enough to convincingly take the No. 1 slot from Samsung.

Apple is expected to benefit from both strong holiday quarter demand, and better supply chain management than its competitors – factors also cited in an earlier tablet report

TrendForce says that both economic uncertainty and component shortages are continuing to constrain smartphone sales in general, despite some improvements.

The smartphone market is showing an improvement in demand during the second half of this year due to the peak season for e-commerce promotional activities and the easing of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions such as Southeast Asia, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, there have been significant shortages of components including 4G SoCs, low-end 5G SoCs, display panel driver ICs, etc. The persistent component gaps are constraining smartphone brands from raising device production for the second half of the year […]

Going forward, an important point of observation in the smartphone market is whether the pandemic will further weaken demand.

The firm said that Apple’s iPhone 13 launch was clearly a big success.

Apple released four new iPhone models under the iPhone 13 series in 3Q21. Thanks to their contribution, the total iPhone production for 3Q21 registered a QoQ increase of 22.6% to 51.5 million units. With this result, Apple was also able to climb to second place in the global ranking.

But the holiday quarter is where it expects Apple to shine. It says supply chain reports on production levels suggest that Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi, and Vivo are all likely to see their market share fall, while Apple will see its share grow from 15.9% last quarter to 23.2% this one. That will be enough to overtake Samsung, to take the overall lead in the global smartphone market.

Photo: Onur Binay/Unsplash

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Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!

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