Replacing the iPhone might seem a strange goal for Apple; it’s been the most successful product the company has ever made, and one of the most successful premium products any company has ever made. But it’s been reported that this is the company’s long-term goal.
Specifically, Apple execs were said to believe back in 2019 that an Apple Glasses product would replace the iPhone in roughly a decade …
The role of Apple Glasses
I expressed my doubts about that at the time.
Are we really going to be in a position where every single person who now owns an iPhone is going to wear glasses? And if we’re not going to wear them all the time, does reaching into our pocket for a pair of Apple Glasses make more sense than reaching for our phone?
I saw the form-factor as having appeal for sure, but as a device which could potentially replace my Apple Watch, not my iPhone.
Five years later, two things have changed. First, and most importantly, generative AI has exploded into the tech world. For decades, AI was like nuclear fusion: Forever just about to have the key breakthrough to make it practical.
I’d argue that breakthrough hasn’t quite happened yet, but there’s no doubting that generative AI is a game-changer.
Second, we do now have AI glasses. They are pretty basic, but trying them was enough to reinforce my belief that this type of device has a role to play, and to see the potential for Apple in particular.
Generative AI will never fully replace search
One vision some have for AI chatbots is that they’ll replace search engines.
To me, that’s true to a limited degree. If I have a question, and am Googling for an answer, then yes, a chatbot could be a great solution.
But other times, I’m Googling because I want to get an understanding of a topic, or because I want to read interesting views on it.
If it’s not too meta, none of you are reading this piece because you had a specific question to which you wanted the answer. You’re reading it because you have an interest in this topic, and want to discover either my take in particular, or just a take to help clarify your own thoughts. (Or you’re a comment troll, who just wants to skim the piece to decide whether to accuse me of being an Apple fanboy or hater …)
For Q&As, it’s not there yet – but will be
Even if we take the simplest case – I have a question, and I want the answer – then generative AI isn’t there yet. AI hallucinations mean that I can’t trust a chatbot to accurately answer a question, and very often it doesn’t even understand what it is I need, so the answer it provides is too vague.
But this will change. If we can teach chatbots to search the web, distinguish authoritative sources from unreliable ones, and to search multiple reliable sites before generating its answer, then we could well be in that Star Trek universe of being able to simply ask “Computer?” and get the correct answer to our question.
Then the Apple Watch is a whole new device
I like my Apple Watch; it performs a number of useful tasks for me. But I do still consider it something of a luxury item – very nice to have, though I’d manage without it if I had to.
But when an Apple chatbot can reliably answer questions? Then it becomes a whole new device. The convenience of having it on my wrist and being able to simply raise it, ask Siri my question, and get a simple and reliable answer will mean it will likely become my default device for many things.
Couple that to a more reliable Siri in general, then the times when I need to reach into my pocket for my iPhone could be greatly reduced.
Apple Watch versus Apple Glasses? I suspect that one may come down to personal preferences – and to whether or not you currently wear eyeglasses.
Replacing the iPhone?
Either one replacing an iPhone? I still think it’s a stretch, but I can certainly see a time when Watch or Glasses are the most common device for us to use when mobile, and when the iPhone has a supplementary role, not a primary one.
But maybe this will be back to Steve’s car versus truck analogy. Maybe you and I still need an iPhone, but some people only need a Q&A/command device.
I wouldn’t like to predict how long it will take to get there. “Roughly a decade” after 2019 is only five years away now. My own view is that this field is just too fast-moving and unpredictable to tell.
In particular, if we’re talking about reducing the iPhone to a secondary device, not replacing it completely, then that could be five years, it could be ten – but given the pace of change in the AI field, it could be a whole lot sooner than that.
What’s your view? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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