alphawise

If the iPhone 5C is launched in China at $400, and Apple’s partnership with China Mobile for a TDD-LTE version of the handset proceeds as expected, Apple’s market share in China could jump by a massive 19.3 percent – enough to make Apple the number one seller.

The prediction, reported in Fortune, was made by Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty on the back of an AlphaWise survey of 2,000 mobile phone owners in China. Full details below … 

Huberty’s note to clients suggested that the expected pricing of the 5C was acceptable in China, and that a TDD-LTE version (compatible with Mobile China’s 4G network) would further boost appeal.

iPhone 5C will drive incremental volume growth

  • Chinese consumers consider US$486 (or RMB 4,000) to be an acceptable price range for the lower-priced iPhone, 22% higher than where we think Apple will price it.
  • In contrast, the acceptable price ranges for Samsung S4 Mini and HTC One Mini were lower than the expected price.

A partnership with China Mobile will increase Apple’s smartphone share in China

  • 29% of potential smartphone buyers would purchase the iPhone if it were compatible with China Mobile’s 3G and 4G networks.

Huberty suggests that the predicted gains would be summed: 13.3 percent from the 5C launch, and a further 6 percent from TDD-LTE compatibility. This would leave the iPhone the best-selling smartphone in China, pushing it ahead of Samsung, the current leader.

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