KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with an excellent track record, has disputed an earlier suggestion by web analytics company Localytics that the iPhone 5s is outselling the 5c three-to-one, suggesting that actual sales are closer to 50/50 – with 5c sales actually likely to be somewhat higher.

KGI estimates that the 9M initial sales comprised 3.5-4.5M iPhone 5s, and 4.5-5.5M iPhone 5c.

The confidential briefing document points out that analytics data is based on activation (or, more specifically, use of the phone to browse the web and run certain apps), which is not the same as sales. KGI’s estimates are based on production numbers … 

With the iPhone 5s in short supply, Apple ought to be selling every phone it makes, meaning that production numbers and sales should be very closely aligned. KGI believes supply of the iPhone 5s is improving, which will allow combined Q4 sales to hit 50-55M.

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11 Responses to “Production analysis disputes claims of 5s outselling 5c; forecasts combined sales of 50-55M in Q4”

  1. no way. I bet 5s:5c is between 2:1 and 3:1


  2. The disparity between the KGI estimate and the Localytics estimate is likely primarily due to channel fill to the carriers on the 5C. There are probably many iPhone 5Cs that have been produced that are sitting in carrier inventory, but there are virtually zero 5Ss in inventory since it is universally out of stock.


  3. Jim Phong says:

    In Tim Cook dreams 50% of units sold would be iPhone 5C … The truth is that this analysis it’s a silly pathetic lie. How much is Tim Cook paying these people to come up with these lies ?
    Everyone can see the 5C not selling at all, millions of units left in the Apple Stores.. Now Tim Cook surely want to make those units disappear.. because he fears investors and managers that would clearly and obviously fire him.
    But Tim Cook surely deserves to be fired.
    It’s a shame that Cook now is twisting numbers and stats trying to save his own ass !
    Steve Jobs from the grave must really be disgusted looking at how Tim Cook is messing things up at Apple.


    • Joe Monaghan says:

      My sister bought a 5C for her and her son. My mom bought a 5S for her and a 5C for my little sister. I bought a 5S for me and my wife is thinking about getting a 5C.

      The 5S will be popular with people who want the latest and greatest as well as those who want a classy looking phone. The 5C will be popular with kids/teens and women of all different ages. The 5C is going to sell VERY well!!


    • Sorry Jim, but your dealer is clearly supplying you with low-grade pharmaceuticals…

      My channel checks conducted yesterday (calling around to find a 5s) revealed that dealers (iPhone, not your drugs) throughout the Toronto area at most have one or two of the 5c model. I doubt you would find any today. Where did you see millions of 5c sitting on the shelves?

      The truth is Samsung has been caught many times conducting campaigns where they pay people to post negative reviews of products (against HTC in Taiwan) and pay bloggers to $500 to make several posts about their app initiatives. Use Google to get the facts and lay off the contraband.


      • Jim Phong says:

        The truth here is that you must be paid by Tim Cook to sell the crap cheap plastic iPhone 5C frauds.
        Because Tim Cook deserves to be fired after the 5C mess.
        Who wants to buy an iPhone buys the 5S not the Cook’s plastic iPhone 5C.
        You insulting and attacking me here and now trying to accuse me of working for Samsung it’s a really pathetic lame attempt to cover up the truth. It won’t work.
        Only a fool would go and buy an iPhone 5C that costs just $100/100Euros less than an iPhone 5S.
        If the 5C was priced half the price of the 5S then surely Apple would have been able to sell all of them quickly.. but at current prices it’s just not worth it.
        If you want an iPhone 5 you buy a used iPhone 5 or a new one for the same or lower price than the plastic re-packaged 5 by Tim Cook renamed to 5C.
        You lies are not going to make people go and buy the crap 5C plastic Cook iPhone.


  4. While supply is constrained for 5s it is not constrained for 5c. Thus, while sell in and sell through should be virtually identical for 5s as Kuo suggests, that is not true for 5c. Since supply is not constrained for 5c the sell in likely exceeds the sell through by a significant margin as witnessed by the fact that it is still available at all major retailers. If Kuo is correct that production of 5s was limited to 3.5 to 4.5M, then Localytics data suggests that a significant portion of the supposed 9m sales over the opening weekend were comprised of sell in, not sell through, of the 5c.