…Time will tell…
As we begin 2015 — the year Apple has promised to release the Apple Watch it showed last September — there’s a somewhat comical debate underway in the media: how big of a success will the Watch actually be?
Although I’m not personally planning to buy an Apple Watch, three decades of using Apple products and over a decade of reviewing them have taught me that Apple now has only three types of launches: gigantic hits, hits, and near-hits. And those phrases are all relative.
Two of Apple’s “least popular” product families, the Apple TV and iPod, have sold in quantities most companies would kill for. These are devices that haven’t been meaningfully updated in several years, and many people have called the iPod “dead,” despite sales of 14 million units in the past year. Even as a semi-successful “hobby,” the Apple TV reached around 10 million customers in the last year, a larger group of users than the typical company can achieve in a whole lineup.
So it’s hard to call any modern Apple product a “flop,” but it’s also true that a few of its major releases — most notably the Apple TV — were particularly close to being misses in their first generations, requiring major price and/or feature changes before succeeding in the next generation. Where will the Apple Watch fit in Apple’s history? Today alone, we’ve seen predictions ranging from “2015 is the year of the Apple Watch” and “could change the way people live” to a somber prediction that it won’t be “the homerun product that iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been.” Similar opinions have been circulating for months.
After reading both dire and overenthusiastic predictions, as well as measuring demand several months out from the release, my belief is somewhere in the middle: the Apple Watch will do better in its first year than the first-generation Apple TV, falling somewhere between the first-generation iPhone (6.1 million units, below Apple’s target of 10 million) and the original iPad (14.8 million units, wildly surpassing most estimates). The iPhone is huge now, but it wasn’t a “gigantic hit” in its first year, while the iPad roared out of the gate and has stayed pretty strong since then. Below, I’ll explain why I think the Apple Watch will wind up between them.
Why The Apple Watch Will Succeed
It Looks Good Enough To Win Fans – Maybe Even New Ones. From what I’ve gathered — and judging from many of the new hires Apple has made to ensure its success — the Apple Watch’s fashion appeal is critical to winning a new base of customers. Wearables and fashion accessories need not appeal to everyone in order to be popular; there is no single hat, for instance, that every person would choose to wear. Creating a universally wow-inducing hat or watch is a lot harder than making a universally wow-inducing phone, which the original iPhone notably did.
Rather, a wearable needs to attract enough wearers to reach a critical mass, and convince them that they won’t look ridiculous in public. That’s the bar the Apple Watch has certainly hurdled. Between the basic aluminum version, the fancier stainless versions, and the luxe gold versions, Apple has created enough options to appeal to several different groups — primarily athletes, wealthy men, and wealthy women – with the sizes and materials necessary to win critical masses in each. You don’t need to like every version of the Apple Watch, just one, and if you’re willing to pay for it, Apple makes a sale. By going after the readers of Vogue and reaching out to customers at Parisian fashion boutiques, Apple isn’t limiting itself to the people who typically fill Apple Stores, and has certainly won some of them over.
It Adds Conveniences To Your Wrist. The second biggest selling point of the Apple Watch is what it will actually do. No one would dispute that Apple could easily sell millions of $99 Jony Ive-designed watches that did little more than tell the time and play music. But to justify a $349 starting price, the Watch needs to do more. Fans of the Apple Watch point to a handful of conveniences the device will add to the iPhone it connects to: “logging” (biometric data), “controlling” (other devices), “authenticating” (payments and other devices), “alerting” (with alarms) and “communicating” (via messages and voice), each providing simple, wrist-based access to functions previously stored less conveniently in a pocket.
Are these features compelling? That’s far more a matter of personal preference than the naysayers would have you believe. Just remember, Apple doesn’t need to win anywhere close of a majority of the entire watch market’s customers in order for the Apple Watch to be a “success.” And developers are seemingly beyond excited to start releasing new apps that expand its already-announced capabilities.
Millions Of People Will Certainly Buy It, No Matter What. The Apple Watch can’t “fail” in an absolute sense of that word because of Apple’s large, loyal user base. History has repeatedly demonstrated that even if Apple only launches a product in a handful of countries, it can count on somewhere between 1 and 2 million people to purchase any major, properly-marketed new product on the first day of availability without having used it — and quite possibly to wait in line for it overnight. Moreover, its products tend to be more successful with every passing generation, as it continually improves features, designs, and pricing to hit the right mixes to win new customers.
When the original Apple TV launched eight years ago, at a not-quite-right $299 price point and with some serious first-generation problems, Apple was able to sell around a million units in the first year. That was at the height of the iPod’s popularity and at a point when iTunes video downloading was relatively new. Since then, the iPhone and iPad have eclipsed the iPod in popularity, creating an even bigger base of potential Apple Watch customers. A survey claims that 5% of iPhone users are either “very” or “extremely” likely to buy the Watch; even half of that would still be in the double-digit millions. (Over 500 million iPhones have been sold, but the exact number of current users is unclear.) Depending on the demand it forecasts in the first few countries, Apple can quickly expand the launch or tweak pricing to sell whatever it decides to make.
Why The Apple Watch Won’t Be A Gigantic Hit (At First)
Having made the case for the Apple Watch above, I note again that I’m personally not interested in owning one — yet. I’ve purchased every iPod, Apple TV, iPhone, and iPad ever made except for the iPad mini 3, and am on record as supporting both the iPhone and the iPad before either one was formally announced. But the Apple Watch just doesn’t do it for me. I’d describe myself as waiting for a more compelling second- or third-generation model.
I’ve been following the wearables market closely for years, read all of Apple’s marketing materials, and really loved the Watch’s first video trailer. I’ve re-watched the trailer just to listen to the music, and would buy the song if I could. It’s a cool piece of marketing that elegantly introduces an exciting new product. The problem is that the product doesn’t yet fit a need that I have, at least in a way that suits my tastes. And many surveys have suggested that I’m part of a relatively large majority, so I’m far from the only person who feels that way.
Battery Life Will Be A Dealbreaker For Many People. For me, the single biggest problem is Apple Watch’s battery life. Apple has said that the Watch will need to be charged every night, and that’s just not something I want to worry about for something I rely upon to keep time. I don’t want to think about whether my watch battery will be dead when I step off a plane, or whether it will stop working if I’m out late at night, or whether there will be an issue using it in the morning if I fall asleep with my watch on my wrist. If the Watch could run for a week between charges, I could live with it. One day of run time is just a non-starter for me.
There’s No Killer Feature (Yet). Next up is the core functionality. I understand what the Apple Watch can do, but none of the features are either independently or collectively compelling enough to justify an expensive purchase. Biometric tracking, light communication, controlling other devices – I really don’t know that I need something other than my iPhone to do these things. Some of them will be so limited using the Watch that I’d be better off just using the iPhone, anyway. If there’s a killer app for the Apple Watch, it has yet to be announced.
Most People Appear Disinterested (For Now). And if you believe the surveys, most other people don’t think they need these features, either. An entire generation of teenagers and twenty-somethings have grown up without wearing watches; their parents have spent decades viewing watches mostly as fashion or simple functional accessories. Tim Cook acknowledged this at an AllThingsD conference: “none of them are going to convince a kid that hasn’t worn glasses or a band to wear one. … There are a lot of problems to solve in this space.” Competing smartwatches — even more attractive ones released late last year for $100 less than the Apple Watch — haven’t really caught on with mainstream users. It’s going to take time and effort to reverse these trends.
The Hardware/Software Are Close, But Not Quite Right. I’m also not totally thrilled about the look of the first-generation software or hardware, which is really important for something I’d wear all day. While I love a couple of the bands Apple chose — the Milanese and Link options — the actual watch looks a little too large and not quite the right shape for my wrist; I found the sixth-generation iPod nano too big to wear every day as a watch, and the Apple Watch is in the same ballpark.
On more picky notes, the new San Francisco font is too Android-like for my taste, and unlike other of the Watch’s displays, apparently non-customizable. Kinks in implementation also need to be worked out: for instance, early reports suggest that you’ll need to enter a PIN code to re-activate Apple Pay on the Watch every time you take it off your wrist. There are a lot of little things like this that need extra polish, and my guess is that Apple is not going to change them for a while.
We Still Don’t Know All The Prices, And They Won’t Be Cheap. This one’s simple: the Apple Watch “starts at $349,” but no one knows yet how much the stainless steel and gold versions will cost. They could be merely “too high,” as the plastic-banded entry-level model is, or “completely laughable,” which is more of a risk for the gold version – enough that people are already contemplating whether they’ll need to be melted down, resold, or traded in to Apple when the second-generation Apple Watch comes out. The fact that people are already discussing disposal prospects for a product they don’t yet own isn’t a great sign.
So Where Does That Leave Us?
Apple was under a lot of pressure to announce a new product category in 2014, and the Apple Watch’s early announcement demonstrated that the company’s designers and engineers had indeed been working hard on something new. Enough people responded positively to the announcement that Apple won’t have trouble selling a million or two units at launch, but it’s unclear whether it will have an iPhone-like first year — falling short of initial targets even with a price drop — or do stronger numbers just because the Apple user base is so much larger and more global now. My personal feeling is that there were more compelling day one uses and fewer functional roadblocks for the iPhone and the iPad, but a lot could change before the Apple Watch is released.
I’m going to be glad to sit this particular launch out. But I’ll definitely be interested in the second- or third-generation model if the battery life and pricing improve. What about you?
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Some good thoughts here. I agree with some of these points. As 2015 is the first year that we will have the Apple Watch on sale, we will see how well it does and how useful it actually is. Most important to remember is that, like iPhone, it’s not going to necessarily be crazy big – slow, but steady – I believe it will do solid this year, but the future is far brighter for Apple Watch if Apple really sells its purpose the right way. Future generation versions will likely fix some of the first generation short comings.
If you look at the product lines Apple do, they are split into two parts – the portable stuff and the desktop stuff.
Now Apple has never particularly done “well” with desktop stuff like PC’s etc. Of course they sell millions and are beautiful beautiful things, but compared to other manufacturers they are a drop in the ocean sales wise. IMHO I think one of the reasons why iMacs etc don’t sell as well even though they are an Apple product is because they can’t be “shown off” as easily as portable stuff – and you know as well as I do that that is a BIG draw of Apple gear.
Portable stuff is different though. The iPad, iPhone & iPod are all beautiful and are also perceived to be at the very top of their respective tech trees (this isn’t an argument about if they are the best/most powerful etc) so people buy them in droves, and take great pleasure in showing them off.
The AppleWatch falls into the same portable category obviously so will sell boatloads because it can easily be shown off. The problem is because it’s not a stand alone product it won’t sell as many as iPhones etc However what it does sell will I’m sure keep Apple and it’s investors happy.
Apple’s mac sales are one of the largest than any other PC manufacturer and they make by far the most money from them – with huge margins.
devnealex – I have an iMac and it’s a beautiful thing – it made me make the jump from Windows after 20 years and I’d NEVER go back. However, I’m not on about how much they make margin wise – I’m on about sales and according to IDC, Apple is the fifth biggest PC vendor behind Lenovo, HP, Dell & Acer. This is pretty good and a huge improvement compared to give years ago.
I’m merely offering my opinion not criticising :)
Yeah, but I would argue that Apple is likely the largest consumer computer manufacturer. Most other companies rely on business PC sales where price is the most important, and many times the only factor considered.
If Apple was smart, they’d offer the higher end purchasers an upgrade. That way if you spend $4000??? for a watch you wont feel like a chump in a year.
I will probably get one of the $350 models given that I have a Fitbit and am looking to upgrade to something better, but I don’t think that there will be huge demand like there were for the early iPhones.
Early iPhones? Apple had a goal of selling 10 million by the end of the first year. They will sell 10 million AppleWatch on launch weekend.
I thought their goal was to have 1% share of the smartphone market when they first launched the iPhone.. wasn’t it? (Maybe I’m wrong.. :P)
Ah, name, Apple had 100% of the smartphone market when they released the first iPhone.
If apple was smart??? Just stop talking. They have more cash then any other company. They didn’t do that being stupid… Stupid.
I know everything Apple does is perfect, they don’t every make a mistake, blah, blah, blah. Apple is not infallible. Take a look at their contract with AT&T which prevented them from selling the iPhone to the #1 carrier in the US for nearly 4 years. As a result, Verizon put its marketing muscle behind the Motorola Droid in 2009 and promoted Android on their network for 2 years before getting the iPhone in 2011. Want to venture a guess when Android took off? http://blog.lucentmobile.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Global-Smartphone-Market-Share.png
So don’t give me the Apple is always right BS. I own Apple products and stock, but I don’t put on blinders and believe that everything Apple does is smart. If you are charging $4000-5000 for a watch you are not in the same market that Apple normally plays in. The Gold model is going to do the exact same thing as the $350 model so you are paying a premium for fashion. If I spend $5000 on a Rolex, the idea is that the watch is something you’d give to you son as a heirloom. If the Gold Apple is outdated in a year, I don’t think people are going to be as likely to splurge.
If I’m not mistaken wasn’t it verizon that wouldn’t sell the iPhone? Because they couldn’t put all their bloatware on it?
Ryan didn’t say Apple were always right.
As for the $3000-$4000 models you speak of, the rich folk buying those won’t care. You think that rich people only buy one really nice watch for their lifetime? There are wealthy people who buy the new iPhone every year, paying for the device upfront because their contract isn’t yet over. They’ve got dough, and even if 10% of those people buy the watch, it’ll be a hit.
And I think it goes without saying that the Apple Watch will not be treated or bought like traditional watches. The question is whether or not it does enough things well enough (and long enough) to make it worthwhile. I’m looking forward to finding out
The AppleWatch is actually WAY better than I thought it would be. I thought the real product would fall short of my expectations and it actually far exceeds them.
Can’t wait for it.
out of curiosity, what do you mean exactly? Because I didn’t have that feeling at all..
It will all come down to the refresh/upgrade cycles. People wont buy a “smart watch” that you have to upgrade every 1 to 2 years. A watch is supposed to keep time but be timeless. If early adopters see that in October the Apple Watch 2 comes out with better everything and precedence is set that these devices only “last” a year, its doomed.
People used to have the same phone attached to their wall their entire life, now we carry them in our pockets, upgrade them every year and almost never actually use them as phones. Just because people have acted one way in the past, does not mean future generations will behave the same way.
It is definitely more than I expected from a first generation product. Feels like a 2nd or 3rd generation product. However, I am super curious to see how they handle upgrades come each successive generation. They are positioning it as a watch, but normal watches can last a lifetime, if they are taken care of and can be passed down from generation to generation. The Apple Watch is not exactly in the same boat. The lower end one is not that bad if someone upgrades every other year as with the phones – but imagine putting down thousands for something that gets outdated 12 months later? It will be interesting to see how Apple plans this out.
The original iPhone still works. It does everything it did when it was released. Not trying to help defend the watch. I actually really dislike both it and that direction of technology.
Since you could upgrade the original iPhone to iPhone OS 3, it actually does a lot more than when it was released.
Excellent comments, agree with most of them.
My impression is that the AWatch was designed for a Hardware that is not here yet. Is sort of an overkill, over engineered product for a first version. Excellent marketing material though. The luxury models are a flat out mistake, unless it was created mostly for marketing purposes to make the entry model look like a bargain.
It seems that Apple’s Minimalistic Philosophy is just skin deep fluff. I’d have liked to see a simpler, humbler option with no biometric monitoring but highly functional monochrome Always On ePaper Display selling for $99 just like the Pebble which provides a workable option for more pragmatic people.
Also in day to day usage, real hard Buttons, again like the Pebble, provides a much better interface than the hyped Crown. Is difficult and tedious to turn that thing from my experience with other watches that I’ve used.
Another personal concern on all these wearables not just the AWatch. Is the fact that I’m attaching a radio frequency generator (Bluetooth+WiFi) so close to my body for most of the day, every day.
It will be fun to see how AWatch does in the Market once it is released.
Accounting for everything that has happened after Steve Jobs stepped down I see Apple like just another Tech company. The people and circumstances that brought us the iPhone are gone, were fired, retired or are too busy enjoying their fortunes.
The Smartwatch Hit product that gets it right won’t come from Apple.
Watch Pebble at CES 2015…
Hey I’m sorry and this has nothing to do with you, but the pebble isn’t a ‘smart’ watch. Smart means something else by definition. The pebble looks like shit, and has a black white display. If Apple would have showed off with a black white display their stock would’ve gone -50% or something. Every analyst would have said ‘they clearly have no taste, everybody was right, there’s no Apple after Steve Jobs’ and they would’ve been right (if Apple did that). But they have taste. God damn they have Jony Ive and he’s a genius. The Hit SmartWatch product will come from Apple, if it comes. No other company get’s the people to buy things and to think they need something that much. Still, it’s not a great device, sure it’s not. But it’s better than everything else. And isn’t that all Apple was about since the beginning? Being better than anyone else (by as much as possible)?
Why does a watch need a colour display? You’re not going to be watching movies on the thing, or at least I hope not.
All it has to do is tell the time, in which case, why not just use dials and not have to worry about charging for multiple months…
Because we’re in 21. Century. It’s like using venyls. We use Color displays. Because B&W looks like shit.
I love my Pebble, really, but I always knew Apple would never do a B&W epaper style display. I understand the design trade offs that resulted in Pebble using that technology, the week long battery life, always on sunlit readable display, but face it: it’s a nerd toy. I’ve seen several shop assistants wearing Pebble in my town of Adelaide Australia. From McDonalds staff and Fasta Pasta (cafe franchise) to Sprint (automotive parts and supplies). But I’ve never seen a woman wear one. My wife would never wear a Pebble. Pebble is not jewelry. Pebble when shown to someone else will not make them say “wow” but Apple Watch likely will.
Apple Watch’s digital crown will not be hard to turn. A usual watch crown is meant to be hard to accidentally adjust. The Digital Crown is larger and further from the wrist enabling easier access. There is no pebble equivalent to the digital crown, it’s mainly used for zoom and scrolling long lists.
Physical buttons on Pebble are great. But the touch screen allows so much more.
I will keep my Pebble and for certain tasks it is better. But in no way should Apple have produced a “me too” Pebble.
The future likely lies with tech such as PixelQi or Miradol – colour LCD when it, B&W transfllective when idle, basically. Best of both worlds. So far these screens haven’t actually looked nice.
I agree with you 100%. You sum up my thought about this product perfectly. I got nothing to add.
The Apple Watch is actually something I thought could be something ‘new’. I’m 16 years old and I already think there won’t be anything in technology in my whole life that surprises me. The Watch is a touchscreen device. No matter what apple sais about that ‘digital crown’ or ‘force touch’. It’s a smartphone strapped to your wrist. Sure, the UI is different, but there’s just no innovation in this thing. The digital crown and force touch, combined with the taptic feedback without noise makes it far better than any other SmartWatch. Still, it’s not good or in any way something spectacular. It’s just a refinement. And I don’t see that changing, no matter what Apple does.
Seems like a lot of people actually think apple will show of something like a ‘killer feature’ for the Apple watch. I don’t think so. I think they don’t know what it’s good for theirselves. At the event, Tim Cook was clearly copying Jobs. But I don’t think that only was for a presentational reason, but because he didn’t know how to present a whole new category to the world.
He’s a great CEO, but defenetely not ment to be on stage. I always liked Federighi and Forstall there.
Anyway, back to the Watch: This device won’t fail because it does almost everything that phones do. And isn’t that everything we want from smartwatches? To be fast-access devices for our phones to look onto when a message comes in during a meeting? And don’t people want phones of all sizes and shapes? I think it’s not an extraordinary device, but one that will defenetely sell good.
I agree with you when you say that you don’t think Apple is going to show off a “killer feature” for Apple Watch. What they are going to show of is how Apple Watch interacts with iPhone apps.
The thing that people are getting wrong when they consider Apple Watch is the same thing everyone got wrong when iPad was first announced. They said it was a big iPod Touch, why would anyone need that? Well, just like the iPhone before it, it wasn’t the iPad itself that changed people’s opinions—it is all about the apps.
Apple Watch isn’t going to succeed because it’s an Apple product, or because it connects to an iPhone. It’s going to succeed because of HOW it connects to an iPhone, and how that connection to and interaction with various apps can be used to improve certain aspects of our daily lives. That is where the innovation will come in, and you can bet that every other “smartwatch” will quickly begin to resemble the Apple Watch in terms of functionality, just like smartphones did after iPhone and tablets did after iPad.
I agree that Tim Cook isn’t the best presenter, but he’s been consistently improving. I don’t think that he copies Steve Jobs’ presenting style at all, I think he has a different method entirely. Obviously, Steve Jobs was an amazing orator and you could really see and feel his passion when he was on stage—that is a quality that I believe usually comes naturally or must really be worked on in order to achieve. However, I like Tim Cook as the face of the company, he’s doing an amazing job as CEO and I like the way he carries himself in interviews. I see his passion for the company and it’s products, it just comes through in a different way than it did for Jobs.
@ricksantiago I believe you’ve articulated my own thoughts on the Apple Watch better than I ever could have! Sure, many other manufacturers have already slapped similar hardware into a smart watch in efforts to beat Apple out of the door but once the Apple Watch is released and the developers start to reimagine how we interact with their iPhone apps, thats where the magic will happen. This is what will make the Apple Watch a dominating force in the smart watch market. I use a pebble now and while it’s very useful for notifications, music controls, and a few other nerdy things (nest thermostat control for example) it still feels like a kickstarter project to me. While the pebble has been a driving force into the beginning of the smart watch market I think the apple watch will be a clean, and polished product that pebble hasn’t achieved yet.
I’m sorry but what exactly are you expecting? By your standards nothing is new: The Macintosh was nothing more than ‘just’ a development of computers before it; the first car ‘just’ a motorised horse and cart; the iPod ‘just’ an mp3 player; the iPhone ‘just’ a touchscreen phone; sat-nav ‘just’ a digital map. Nothing is strictly ‘new’, especially when you reduce them to such simplistic comparisons. That doesn’t mean there isn’t innovation behind them. The Apple Watch is the first 21st century device to really challenge what a wrist watch is, and what it can be. The digital crown and force touch are all innovative solutions to the problem of the small screen that is inherent of a device you wear on your wrist. The problems lies with your dismissal of these advanced technologies as nothing special.
Ask yourself: what is innovation? Is it simply making something ‘different’ like Google’s “innovative” Glass. Or is it solving real problems it the most advanced and technologically challenging way? Apple don’t do different for the sake of it like other companies do to stand out. They also don’t care about being first – nor should you.
Hi. First, you will be surprised by tech, I just hope in a good way. Second, I think if Apple Watch is the result of people at Apple making things that they want themselves, I think they are on to something. Otherwise, I really hope they find something good to do soon.
I wonder how big of a hit the iPhones battery will take when the Watch is connected?
If i look at my Nexus 5 (never praised for its battery life) connected to my Moto 360, it is about the same. Android Wear also uses Bluetooth to connect to the Android phone and I can last a full day with my Nexus.
Great article. The Apple Watch unfortunately will not have the same success of the iPad and iPhone, that’s a fact. A watch that the battery lasts only one day is not a watch, it is a burden. No doubt it is a great product, but the battery life will void the grandeur of the product. I really wanted to buy the Apple Watch, perhaps the following model with more energy juice. PS: One more thing, a hardcore user, after a year of use, will have his Apple Watch lasting half a day – that is really ridiculous for a wearable.
Watches already ARE a burden. I take it off every night and have to remember to put it on in the morning. How will this be any different to the Apple Watch? I’ll take the Apple Watch off and place it where I used to put my watch (which will have a charging cradle waiting for it). Apple have shown that charging will be simple and easy using magnets. The wide array of features and connivence will soon outweigh the “problem” of battery life for most people. Just like how everyone complained how the original iMac didn’t have a floppy disk slot; the MacBook Air didn’t have a DVD drive; the iPhone didn’t have a physical keyboard; the iPad didn’t have a flash player, USB port and just about everything else a laptop has but the iPad didn’t (most people though the iPad would be a touchscreen MacBook so were bitterly disappointed). You’re kidding yourself if you think the Apple Watch is going to be any different. In fact, early reports show that more people plan on buying the Apple Watch when compared to how many people planned to buy the iPad.
Well said, I also take my watch off to sleep. But I don’t agree with the comparison you made between the new wearable and other Apple products.
Few people really enjoy having a watch that have little battery autonomy, that can be proved by the numbers made from semi automatic watchs.
Here in Brazil we a had a popular cookies that had the following advertisement: Tostines sells more because it is fresh or it is fresh because it sells more?
This quote can be applied to Apple. The Watch Apple may even bear good sale numbers for Apple, but this will not be the evidence of a true success of the product, this will just shows Apple’s brand power.
If you know the story, it tells us that the invention of the wristwatch was due to dynamic life of the inventor Santos Dumont. He commissioned Cartier something that would allow him to see the time without effort, while he was working at his plane and other projects.
A clock with low battery it is like a car with little gas tank. Most people doesn’t buy a car that just ride a few kilometers, and this will not change anytime soon. In fact, battery life and supply logistics is a major obstacle of Tesla vehicles.
Just like devanealex said, when I was wearing a regular watch, I already had to remove it before going to bed. I remove my Moto 360 every night and place it on it charger. In the morning, I put clothes and then take my watch off its charger to put it on my wrist. How is it different?
Indeed a less-than-24-hours battery especially gives travelling users problems; while my Pebble Steel battery charge lasts from 5 to 7 days ! And the possible cost for a watch with a 2 year life is also a problem.
People can afford to change their iPhone every 2 years but can’t do that for their watch?
It looks to me to be a solution to a problem that does not exist. If you really need to have a clock strapped to your wrist and are too lazy to check the time on your phone, then watches of every shape and size imaginable have been available for several ifetimes.
The Apple Watch is also very obviously a first gen product. Battery life sounds utterly miserable (a watch of all things should last for MONTHS on a battery), and it’s also very fat and bulky looking. To my eyes it’s not even attractive as a piece of fashion, as any other high end watch would be.
Apple should be focussing more on TV. That’s an area desperate for innovation and one in which people are more interested and invested than ever.
Couldn’t agree more. The Apple TV is a much better product and has a much larger market then the watch ever will. Personally, even the iPod has a larger market available to it. Both of those products still have a customer base that is unexplored and can bring NEW customers to the Ecosystem. This has always been the most important part about new Apple device in my mind. The Apple Watch is only for people who already own an iPhone and like watches/jewelry. I have a feeling it’ll be a hit with older consumers but the <25 age groups will leave it alone.
Agreed as well. I’m sure it will do well, but I won’t jump on board, especially first gen. It’s too bulky, not enought battery life, and not something I need.
You’re right it IS very obviously a first gen product… Because it’s the first one they made. Ipod, iPhone, and ipad all had “major” flaws at their inception, but it was always the years that followed that turned them into big hitters. Watch will be no different.
Also, expecting a smartwatch to have months of battery? You’ve got your hopes to high to expect something like that now, or even within the next decade.
You are missing his point. He isn’t getting his hopes up. Watches already exist with battery lives that can last years. “A watch of all things should last for months on battery life.” Apples watch has to compete with that.
If it has any chance of appealing to the fitness crowd it needs GPS. Which it doesn’t have. Why bring a phone and a watch on a run when you already need your phone anyway? One of these things is obsolete.
+1 for Fitbit Surge
I always carry my phone while running for my music and for the Nike+Running GPS tracking. The thing is, I hate to look at it while running. I don’t care if I have to carry it, I just want an easy way to see the info it brings me, while I run. A smartwatch is the answer to this problem. I want to raise my wrist and see how it is going, skip a song, see my heartrate, etc.
My $150 Watch has a battery that lasts a couple of years. The dial is easy to read, it tells the time. It’s not too big and, I can fix the band loosely on my wrist, as I need to, without it effecting functionality. Everything else I need is on my iPhone 4s. So what purpose would this device have for me?
I think you already have your answer
I think that’s the answer for everyone. Some people just want the “new, cool thing”. No matter how useless it is.
I think it’s silly to say that that’s the answer for everybody. And while what you say may be true… so what? Some people WILL want the cool new thing. Useless to you, maybe, and capdorf. But the product will only get better if people USE IT and critique it, instead of sitting by the sidelines and speculating how little use it would be to you. Don’t buy it then, and more importantly, stop talking about it.
“My iPhone lets me read my emails, listen to songs, play games, watch movies…. and it fits in my pocket. So what purpose would an iPad have for me?” <—Said pretty much everyone before the iPad came out. And now look how popular it's become. It's all about form factor, connivence and how the products will interplay together that will make the Apple Watch a success.
Convenience, discretion, immediacy, constant presence, less distractions. Discreet alarms and reminders, at-a-glance texts, fitness tracking/encouragement, Maps on your wrist, Siri on your wrist, ApplePay, iPhone viewfinder, iTunes/Apple TV remote, possibly the best iPod Nano ever. Furthermore it’s endlesslsy customizable for the gym or a wedding. Future uses will include home automation and more HealthKit functions.
I’m guessing in 2006, you were they type to say, I’ve got a computer and my trusty Nokia, why would I want email and Internet on my phone?
Which of these would work without the phone in my pocket, and without a flat battery. I appreciate that these features are great, but I do not want to wear two watches, just in case the battery goes flat.
A watch is much different to a phone, in that it is automatically assumed to be working, and is a bloody nuisance when it doesn’t. Yes a phone is close but not there.
The second version of the iPhone was a vast improvement over previous phones, but note it took the second version to do that, and the battery still is not long lasting enough.
That should be “with a flat battery”
Well written, I agree with most everything in the article. One element not discussed is the “Asian Influence”. I think most of us understand that the early adopters of this type of technology begin in Asia and spread from there to other parts of the world. I look to Japan, China and other Asian countries to lead the sales of Apple wearables bringing this form and fashion into the mainstream.
One correction: The Stainless Steel Watch is the base model at $349.
I’m not so sure. I think polished stainless steel and sapphire glass will be more expensive than anodized aluminum and ion strengthen glass.
Yeah I don’t think they (Apple) ever specified which would be the cheapest version but based on materials (aluminum vs stainless steel, glass vs saphire, rubber band vs leather/steel) it’s reasonable to assume that the sport edition will be the cheapest model.
you’re definitely wrong there. the sport is way cheaper construction.
i mean, seriously?… so many people are saying this.
You think the range would go…
sapphire – cheap glass – sapphire?
and
heavy polished steel – cheap ally – gold/rose gold?
Thanks to the author of the article for mentioning a problem with the font. It’s one of the first things I noticed (welcome to the font geek club, I guess) and was not in board for. It’s appearance cheapens the overall look of the watch.
While the AppleWatch may have great functionality, that is one butt-ugly font. Glad to know I’m not the only one that feels this way.
Maybe you’ll feel differently seeing it in person? Apple Watch is really, really small. Readability is exceptionally important otherwise the entire point of the device is wasted.
Seeing Apple Watch on a big screen with this font is disgusting. But, maybe on my wrist it will be good and readable. I can’t see Apple not trying every existing font on their watch before making a choice. These details, is what drives them.
You’re absolutely right that readability is important, and I’ve dad the font was invented specifically to suit the small size of the screen on the watch.
Be that as it may, and from what I’ve seen, I’m not a fan of the font. In my opinion, it’s ugly.
To be clear, it’s not that I’d not appreciate new or different and paving new paths to create ease of use. When the iPhone 6 design leaked, I was one of the few to comment on the difficulty of improving on great design (I.e. The iPhone 5s) and was optimistic that everyone would grow to enjoy the 6’s design language. So, I appreciate taking risks creating new things. It’s avaluable, important, and Apples great at it.
But that font. I got no love for that nasty-ass font. :)
Cheers, and thanks for the reply!
Sorry for the numerous auto-correct errors in the above response.
The font is extremely legible on a 40 mm display. You can download the font yourself and shrink it down in TextEdit. you’ll find it’s much easier to read than Helvetica Neue, Myriad, or the other Apple fonts.
Add and will you get apple watch poll :) plz
I’m sure getting one! I loved my polar loop :) just sold it for the apple watch.
I am not getting one, so count it as a flop
I’m getting one no matter what, i’ve been saving $500 for three years for this
I have to point out that writing an article about a device no one owns, except for a select few, and speculating about why you would or would not own it because of reasons that you can only guess about is just silly. Buy the watch and then make an informed opinion about the product.
Sorry friend, but this isn’t a silly article. Whether people like it or not, the Apple Watch will be a huge talking point this year — everyone will share their opinions. Apple has become a behemoth for consumers and for investors. Apple Watch will be extremely relevant…until it’s released. After that, you’ll see a whole new set of articles reviewing it. You might want to consider hibernation. :) Personally, I don’t plan on buying one. I don’t want a smartphone on my wrist.
Actually, it is silly, because if this were an article written by an investment advisor about a non-existent product (on the market), you’d probably pillory him for endless speculation.
Although I will be ordering one of these on launch, I agree with every other point you made. This does feel like the first iPhone. The first and second iPhones lacked so much. Remember life before the App Store? How about only one camera? This first generation watch surely will feel the same two years from now or sooner.
The one day battery issue I could live with if it quick charges. If I can fully charge it while taking a shower or some other routine activity then no problem. If it requires more than two hours then that will be painful.
The big deal for me? Lack of camera. Seriously, I’ve waited all my life for the Dick Tracy wrist video phone. I imagine this will be second or most likely third generation. A hot spot connection to the iPhone in my pocket and solid wearable FaceTime would be amazing.
I’ve bought a slip case wallet for my iPhone. I’m thinking I will not physically use it as much while I wear the watch. The less I am pulling the phone out when about town the less likely I am to break it. This all sounds like a plus for me as I’ve broken nearly every generation of iPhone and several iPads.
Time will tell.
I get wanting a camera because it’s based on a Dick Tracy model, or something like that, but that’s where I stop getting it.
If Apple released a coffee mug, there would be a contingent of disappointed buyers on its lack of camera.
The thing about Apple that many people enjoy, and that Apple has stated about itself many times, is the stuff it doesn’t do. Jobs mentioned numerous times the problem of adding too much stuff to any given product. A watch just doesn’t need a camera in the same way a coffee mug doesn’t need one, either.
Ahh. Fair point. But we also didn’t think we needed an iPad at one point either. Apple sold us on it.
First of all, you need to invest in a case or something man. You’ve broken every iPhone you’ve had? I mean I get mine replaced usually once or twice but it’s because of a manufacturing issue or something breaking that shouldn’t, not accidental damage. As far as feeling like the first iPhone, it personally feels like the exact opposite.
The iPhone was a device that grabbed new users and single handily made the Smartphone market for consumers. It made a whole revolution of touchscreen devices. It wasn’t perfect, yes. But it was the idea that was so radical and thoughtful. More importantly it was a change in consumption. Maybe I’m the odd one out, but it’s easily become the most used Internet browser in the house and the most used music player. Those two activities are probably 90% of my phone usage. Neither of those activities will helpful on my wrist.
I’ve had an lg g watch for over a week. After getting use to it, the battery lasts all day. To me, it is no big deal if the battery doesn’t go for 2 days. As long as it gets me through the day, I am ok charging it. I’m not going to sleep with it anyways.
Well I don’t see the apple watch moving so many units. Probably the rich will buy them and hollywood. $350 is way too much for a watch. The most expensive android wear watch is $300 but it is round and waterproof. To me, the apple watch looks like a first generation iphone that has shrunk. They should of went with round display.
I would of never got the lg g watch but they had it on sale for $80. I really enjoy the ability to read my notifications without looking at my phone. And if I lose my phone, my watch can ding it for me. There are some nice games on it too.
I wish google would add ios support. They are usually good at supporting ios products.
Well we will see how the I watch will do. Judging by how the ipad is doing, not that well.
Selling the first Apple Watch won’t be hard. People are curious, they trust Apple and they love its gorgeous and highly customizable design. It’ll sell, despite being overpriced (although not if you look at how much the other guys ask for their smart timepieces). I’m looking specifically at you, 350 dollar aluminium-plastic Apple Watch Sport.
What will be hard for Apple is selling the following iterations of the watch, respectively convincing the early adopters to update. Watches tend to get replaced much less than phones or tablets. Not only do you probably not want to wear every year or two something new on your wrist, you also won’t get the Apple Watch 2 or 3 subsidized like it’s with iPhones.
But Apple knows this and they probably are already working out plans to achieve this (selling the following iterations). However, looking at the iPad, we should remember that Apple isn’t God.
Here are a hand full things that would, I think, convince people to update:
– iPhone no longer required (Apple Watch 2, right?)
– Longer battery life (Apple Watch 18 maybe..)
– New Apple Watch Sport cases (iPod touch colors)
– New Gold Stainless Steel Apple Watch
– Stainless Steel bands for Apple Watch Edition
About the killer feature you think is missing.
I think the taptic engine will be af big deal. Particularly the fact that you now will be able to recive notifications without anyone to hear og feel it besides yourself is a big deal to me. I hate to hear the vibration sound from others (or me) at meetings, movie theathers and more.
In the keynote where Apple announced Apple Watch they demonstrated a little, but very cool, thing about the taptic engine. If you are using Apple Maps to get directions to a place, you will be tapped on your wrist when you have to turn either left or right. This means that you can walk to a new place without even looking at your wrist or phone!
And if you where heading to somewhere important, would YOU trust a gentle tap on your wrist from your watch or prefer to use your own eyes?
Gentle tap. I never trust my lying eyes.
That depends how good it works and how important it is. I will probably not use it if I am on my way to a job interview, but if I need to meet a friend on a cafe I dont know, then I will use it for sure.
When you’ll be used to the meaning of the taps, I’m sure you’ll trust them for everything. But, if they are shitty, nobody will…
I just don’t see this apple watch being popular. I would say it will sell like the apple tv.
I think it will sell the same as the first gen AppleTV. You know the one that had the hard drive and needed to sync everything via Wi-Fi from your computer? Yeah, that sounds about right.
And this shitty Apple TV was built under Jobs…
10% of iPhone users is all I expect. If they beat that then it’s a success in my eyes.
I honestly don’t think the iWatch is going anywhere above nitch product but as a stock owner if it does great, if it doesn’t no one really expected it to work so no biggy.
I’m an Apple Fanboy, a big one. But a watch which will work only for 16 hours?
The first Mobile Phones didn’t have a long battery lifetime. the has been improved. My watch works with the battery for ? oner year? (yes, now the counter argument, this watch doesn’t have a charger like the Apple Watch, but anyway).
Surprisingly for me, this is the first time I’m completly not interested in an Apple product.
My 50 cents.
As long as it lasts the day, I don’t see the big deal in charging it nightly like my phone. It does far far more than my old Casio, just like the iPhone does more than my old Nokia that lasted 5 days. If you want it to match traditional watch battery life you will be waiting 10-20 years.
Just because most pleople will be worried about battery life and short life cycle in general, Apple could be smart – again in offering an in-store refurbishment.
You buy a relativley expensive personal timepiece and in a year or two you may upgrade the sealed chip and battery in any AppleStore. This would create that kind of peace of mind in buying an Apple Watch. I bet the outer form factor, screen and sensors of this first edition Apple Watch will stay the same for years to come anyway.
Apple made an announcement last year, but only disclosed technical specifications that were equivalent to other semi-smart watches that have been or were about to be announced.
As usual, Apple held back (not atypical of Apple). In February or March, Apple will formally announce/release the Apple watch. They will specify new sensors that monitor blood glucose and pressure. etc. In addition, this medical information could be relayed to your doctor (your approval is required) or utilized in hospital apps that help you monitor and or alert you to a medical issues. Such as, monitor your vital trends with respect to known limits (blood pressure upper and lower limits or blood sugar levels or A1C values. This will open the door to new apps that will monitor and help you stay fit.
It a medical emergency, it may even alert your doctor or have a feature to call a medic/ambulence with a location feature.
The Apple watch would have to be upgradeable (especially for the more expensive watches). The internals (electronics, sensors and battery) could be replaced (modular with the same footprint, possibly a smaller circuit board and larger battery with each generation). As stated above, Apple watch and Apple TV will not be recycled on an annual basis (not feasible) – maybe 5 year major recycle.
if the Apple watch were hardware upgradeable, the additional functionality in the 2nd and 3rd generation watches electronics could be replaced in the 1st generation watches (all fits in the same case).
Prior to June 2015, Apple will announce the Apple watch, the Apple TV with home kit and the iPad Pro with IBM business apps. At WWDC, they will also present new iOS feature for health kit and home kit.
Quite the prediction. Any data to back any of this up?
I will probably get the first gen Apple Watch partially to be able to say I own the first of a product that will hopefully build a long history behind it. I still have my original iPhone and the first iPod ever made for this reason.
Did you want to know why the iwatch will be a success? Because out there are a lot of people like me, that are not allowed to used their iPhone in their work. I have to keep it in my pocket and hide to check it, and if I can see in my wrist the notifications and can determine which ones answer w/o hide from my boss. Oh and if can confirm the apple pay with it, another’s big hit.
Looking forward for at least the 2nd generation. As it was with iPad Mini. The first one was the tryout. The second was a major step up. 3rd, obviously, was disappointment. But the 4-th will be the next jump. I expect something familiar with the Watch. The 2-nd one will sell at least 300% better than its predecessor.
After reading both the article and all of the comments, I feel there is one MAJOR point being missed by most. What makes the iPhone so successful? Apps! What is the first thing you do when you get a new phone? Download all of your apps.
The Apple Watch will not be a success because of stock software, but instead rely on developers who are currently hard at work creating apps that were never before possible.
Teaser: My company is creating a free app that will give users the same functionality as a seperate wearable device that recently presold 600k+ worth of product through Indiegogo at a price of $200 per.
Using the built-in hardware and sensors, developers are building applications that 1. You didn’t know were possible. 2. You didn’t know you needed.
This is just a wild guess. If you consider a gold watch costing several thousand dollars, this would be quite frustrating for the owner of such device when the next generation comes out being much more powerful. Melting or trading in the device will still lose the owner a lot of money. Therefore I was thinking perhaps Apple could offer an internal upgrade service for the high end watches. The S1 being a whole computer system on a chip, it might be the only thing to be upgraded. Of course the battery could also be replaced with a higher capacity one but with the same sizes. One could say that an upgrade would not be possible if the form factor changes. But considering the digital crown being on the side (as oppose to the iphone home button being on the front) I think the watch cannot go any thinner. That would make the digital crown impractically thin. So I think there is a high chance the form factor will stay the same for several generations to come, until some new technology completely changes the form factor of the device. Those would be things like a bendable device that take the shape of your arm, and thus also gets a longer display.
To be a stickler, you got this wrong. Someone else might have already posted, but I’m not going to go through 96 responses to find out.
“…falling somewhere between the first-generation iPhone (6.1 million units, below Apple’s target of 10 million) and the original iPad (14.8 million units, wildly surpassing most estimates).”
Apple’s target was 10 mln units for iPhone in 2008, its first full year on the market, not in the first 12 months after launch. That 10mln was 1% of the global cellphone market at the time. Apple sold more than 10 mln iPhones in the 2nd half of 2008 alone. By that measure, I’d say it was a resounding success.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-from-macworld-2007-steve-jobs-keynote/