On the eve of the iPhone 15 launch, analysts are making last minute predictions over price increases and port change impacts. Other factors at play include the recently reported iPhone ban looming over Chinese government employees and competition from rival Huawei.
20 million iPhone sales at risk
According to Bank of America analysts, Apple could face a loss of 5 to 10 million units sold if Chinese government employees were barred from using iPhones for work. That number could increase if China were to enforce a ban on even bringing iPhones to the office, they add.
The actual impact, of course, depends on how real the reported ban actually ends up being. Ultimately, that comes down to enforcement and how broad the ban will be. From the sound of things, however, it could be more widespread than first expected.
Tim Cook isn’t losing sleep over 5 to 10 million iPhone shipments, but the broader messaging from the Chinese government just might keep him up at night.
Separately, Oppenheimer analysts predict as many as 10 million lost iPhone orders due to competition from rival Huawei. The company’s new Mate 60 Pro, a 5G-ish Android handset with satellite calling, is certainly getting the US government’s attention due to US sanctions against the company.
More than iPhone sales
The two events are likely no coincidence. Apple, of course, has the breathing room to stomach the risk of 20 million iPhone sales. The bigger issue, as ever, is the American company’s reliance on manufacturing in a country with an adversarial government.
The Huawei story is one that has more to do with testing government sanctions. China banning iPhone usage from government employees is one that will require the diplomacy of Tim Cook.
You also have to wonder how much banning TikTok in the US plays a factor.
Thoughts?
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