iphones

Fortune has its usual roundup of what the analysts are expecting Apple to report in iPhone sales next week, and the forecasts make worrying reading. The overall average is for quarterly sales of 38.2 million, which would represent year-on-year growth of just two percent.

averages

Adding to the concern, ten of the 32 analysts included in Fortune‘s poll predict a fall in sales when compared to the same quarter last year.

With the new iPhones having generated record sales in their opening weekend, and Apple having reported all-time quarterly high iPhone sales in Q1, the question is why the pessimism regarding Q2 … ? 

Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi told investors that the numbers are hard to predict as there are conflicting factors at play, but he cites two main reasons for picking a relatively cautious number.

First, he says, sales to China Mobile appear to have been slower than expected, and likely lower than Apple anticipated. With Apple at saturation point in developed markets like the U.S., emerging markets are now key. Second, US carriers have tightened their upgrade policies, meaning more people have to either wait longer before they are entitled to a new phone, or pay more.

Against this, however, he says that sales of the older iPhone 4 and 4s have been taking off in emerging markets, balancing out lower sales of the new models. Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty adds that recent carrier and retailer promotions are likely to have boosted sales, with the cheaper 8GB version of the iPhone 5c also helping in some markets – though these factors may have kicked in too late to help much with Q2 numbers.

Fortune’s full analyst roundup is below. We’re likely to hear iPad and Mac forecasts before Apple reveals the actual numbers on Wednesday 23rd April.

full