Ming-Chi Kuo is out with some iPhone 15 launch day analysis based on supply chain sources. As the new iPhones reach customers around the world, Kuo shares four conclusions about how each model is performing and Apple’s fall quarter will go.
First, Kuo writes that he expects Apple to achieve year-over-year growth for the company’s fourth quarter. That’s thanks to better than expected iPhone revenue and profit from selling pricier models and shipping in a larger capacity than a year ago.
“I still maintain my estimate of iPhone 15 shipments in 2H23 of 80 million units, while iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22 were 76 million due to the Hon Hai Zhengzhou factory shut down in November last year,” Kuo adds.
Kuo says the iPhone 15 Pro Max is Apple’s primary growth driver during Q4. He expects 35 million units shipped compared to 28 million for the iPhone 14 Pro Max.
The new 5x telephoto lens is exclusive to the iPhone 15 Pro Max this year. The camera module is also the most constrained part. That’s probably why 5x zoom is only on the most expensive model for this generation. Both sizes of iPhone 16 Pro are expected to have the longer optical zoom level next year.
The iPhone 15 Plus is also a winner, according to Kuo. The analyst believes Apple initially ordered fewer models than it will need based on early sales results.
A year ago, the iPhone 14 Plus shipped a few weeks after the rest of the lineup. Meanwhile, it was the iPhone 14 Pro line that sold in higher volumes than Apple expected, according to supply chain reports.
Lastly, Kuo comments on the standard iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro model performance so far.
“The iPhone 15 and 15 Pro fall short of expectations, and there is a likelihood of order cuts for these two models if Apple doesn’t cut their prices,” Kuo says.
Now will Apple actually lower the price tag on the $799 and $999 models? Not a chance. However, if Kuo is right, it’s possible there could be greater promotional incentives applied to these models.
However, Apple seeing more success with its more expensive models from both lines seems like a good problem to have. We’ll continue tracking what the analysts are saying and what actually happens over the next several weeks.
Keep in mind that this is the cycle where most analysts expected iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max to increase in price. Instead, Apple dropped the $1099 128GB Pro Max model from the lineup, but kept the price per storage intact. In other regions and compared to inflation, prices actually saw a relative drop.
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