Apple shares yesterday closed below $100 for the first time in 15 months, the WSJ noting that the value of the company has dropped by $100B in a little over a month, losing 7% this week alone.
The Cupertino company’s 4.2% drop on the day was greater than the overall market’s slide and the 3% slump in the Nasdaq Composite, which closed down 10% from its May peak. Since early December, Apple has shed $100 billion in market value.
The slide is being attributed to two factors: one (semi-)factual, one speculative …
December 31, 2015
There have been a number of predictions that Apple will next year report a year-on-year decline in iPhone shipments for the current quarter, KGI among them. Most such reports are based on extrapolating from supply chain data which attempts to estimate production volumes.
These reports contrast with Apple’s own guidance for record revenue of $75.5B to $77.5B. Tim Cook argued in October that some two-thirds of existing customers are still using older phones, leaving plenty of room for upgrades this quarter, and that Apple is winning over Android owners in record numbers.
One analyst believes he knows how the conflict can be resolved…
December 14, 2015
Update: Fortune reports that in a conference call, Huberty said her forecast was in part based on an estimated 10% drop in component orders. She noted that this could be due to robust inventories rather than weak demand, and that the numbers in the note were a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Huberty emphasized that she remains upbeat on Apple, citing a strong brand, loyal customers, R&D investment and other revenue streams compensating for weaker predicted iPhone sales.
[tweet https://twitter.com/philiped/status/676410189852078080 align=’center’]
The brand is strong. Customers are loyal. Gross margins are stable. R&D is going full tilt. And revenue streams from new products (Watch, Apple TV), apps, and media could start to make up for slowing iPhone growth.
An investment note by Morgan Stanley Katy Huberty predicts that Apple will see its iPhone sales fall by 5.7% in Apple’s 2016 financial year, reports Business Insider. The prediction is significant for two reasons: if realised, it would be the first time since the launch of the iPhone that sales have fallen year-on-year – and the forecast is made by a noted Apple bull.
Morgan Stanley thinks that Financial Year 2016 iPhones sales will be 218 million – a 5.7% drop — while Calendar Year 2016 sales will be 224,000 — a 2.9% drop. These predictions are significantly below Huberty’s previous estimates, of 247 million for FY2016 and 252 CY2016.
One of the reasons given isn’t new – high smartphone penetration in developed markets – but Huberty says there is a second reason …
November 18, 2015
A Goldman Sachs investment note argues that Apple has huge potential for generating more recurring revenue, suggesting an opportunity to generate an additional $7.6B a month, reports Business Insider. The company points to the rumored Apple TV subscription service as one future source of monthly revenue.
In a recurring revenue framework, we have constructed an average revenue per user (ARPU) metric that captures the installment plan pricing of the iPhone ($32/month), assumed installment plans for the other hardware products, and services (e.g. Music at $10/mo, TV at $40/mo) …
November 17, 2015
October 28, 2015
Apple has finally launched iOS 9.1 with a few new features you may be interested in. Along with that, we have some thoughts on those fresh iPhone 6s and Apple Watch ads and orders for the new Apple TV have started. Plus we dive into what Apple’s earnings results mean for the company. The Happy Hour podcast is available for download on iTunes and through our dedicated RSS feed.
October 27, 2015
The consensus forecast among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for Apple’s Q4 earnings is $51.11B, up 21.3% year-on-year. This would be slightly above the top end of Apple’s guidance of $49-51B reportsRe/code. Analysts predict unadjusted net profit of $10.72 billion, or $1.88 per AAPL share – up from $1.42 per share last year … expand full story
October 26, 2015
September 29, 2015
With Apple having announced all-time record iPhone sales, you might have expected analysts and investors to be impressed, and to see the AAPL share price rise as a result. Instead, the stock is actually down a little – so what gives?
The answer, like the one to so many questions today, is: China. This is the first iPhone launch where mainland China, and not just Hong Kong, has been included from day one. This means the opening weekend sales of 13M versus 10M last year aren’t like-for-like.
Apple hasn’t revealed what percentage of iPhone sales were made in China, but we can do some back-of-an-envelope sums to get a rough idea … expand full story
August 6, 2015
August 5, 2015
The stock market can often seem an irrational place, and never more so than where AAPL is concerned. The company keeps reporting record sales, has typically out-performed analyst expectations, takes home almost the entire smartphone industry’s profits and has so much cash it scarcely knows what to do with it – yet its share price is falling.
AAPL stock has fallen more than 14% since April, wiping $113B from the company’s market valuation. It dropped 7% in the past month alone. That’s the equivalent of McDonalds vanishing into thin air. What gives? expand full story
July 21, 2015
With Apple due to report its fiscal Q3 (calendar Q2) earnings later today, Fortune notes that the company has beaten Wall Street expectations for eight straight quarters – and strong iPhone sales mean that today’s earnings report is likely to make it nine.
iPhone sales typically drop in June as consumers hear more rumors about the next model and many decide to wait. But with Q3 sales estimated at close to 50M phones, representing a massive 40% year-on-year increase, that would put Apple’s revenue well in excess of the company’s own guidance of $47B and above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $49.5B … expand full story
May 29, 2015
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today, Apple revealed that CEO Tim Cook has donated 50,000 Apple stock shares to charity this week. At today’s stock price of just over $130 per share, this number of shares is equivalent to approximately $6.5 million. Cook’s previous publicly-known, personal donation was to Project One America, an LGBT equality campaign…
May 26, 2015
The Apple world this morning seems divided between those who seemingly haven’t grasped the implications of Apple’s ‘promotion’ of Jony Ive, merely taking Cook’s memo at face value, and those switching into full-on ‘Apple is doomed’ mode. The reality is, I think, a little more nuanced.
It seems pretty clear that this move is, as Seth outlined earlier, about Ive taking more of a backseat role – and especially being able to spend a lot more time back in England. Apple’s decision to announce the news on a day when the US markets were closed was obviously not coincidence.
Apple didn’t want to see a knee-jerk panic reaction on Wall Street setting its stock diving. But is there reason to panic? Or is it all much ado about nothing? Or something between the two … ? expand full story
May 18, 2015
High-profile investor and AAPL shareholder Carl Icahn has published yet another open letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook, this time giving his thoughts on new product categories that he expects Apple to enter alongside his usual advice for the company on share repurchases, valuation, and more.
As for his product predictions, Icahn highlights two new big categories, both of which have been reported in detail and rumored for the last year, including TV and electric vehicles. Icahn thinks Apple will release full-fledged UHD TV sets sometime next year…
April 27, 2015
With Apple set to reveal its fiscal Q2 earnings after market close today, analysts are expecting double-digit year-over-year growth in all categories except iPads. Fortune‘s roundup says that analysts predict revenue of $56.84B, up a massive 24.5% year-over-year, and above the top end of Apple’s $52-55M guidance. Earnings per share is predicted to be $2.21, up a third on the previous year, with gross margin just shy of Apple’s top-end guidance at 39.4%.
Double-digit growth is expected in both iPhones and Macs. For iPhones, the prediction includes sales just under 56M, 32.6% higher than the same quarter last year, while Mac sales are forecasted to hit 4.7M, 13.6% up on last year … expand full story
April 26, 2015
KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analysts we feel credible, has his Apple numbers ready for Q1 2015. The analyst projects iPhone, iPad, and Mac shipments to be 58.2 million, 10.1 million, and 4.5 million respectively. He also estimates that Apple Watch shipments are currently at 631,000 units.
April 9, 2015