Could Apple Reality Pro headset adoption follow Apple Watch or HomePod trend?

Apple is expected to unveil its mixed reality headset at WWDC in less than two weeks. Shifting from a focus on iPhone analysis, CIRP is out with a research note discussing what Apple Reality Pro adoption could look like by comparing it to Apple Watch, AirPods, and HomePod ownership.

Following up on its last report covering how long Apple users are holding on to their iPhones, CIRP published “Projecting Reality for Apple AR/VR Headsets” today on its Substack.

As a starting point, CIRP looked at Bluetooth headphone and smartwatch penetration among iPhone owners as well as the Apple market share for the same devices among customers who own some type of that wearable.

CIRP found 39% of iPhone owners have a Bluetooth headset (headphones) and 34% of them have a smartwatch. As for what percentage of that Apple commands, 59% of iPhone users have AirPods and 78% of iPhone owners have an Apple Watch.

CIRP says it expects consumer adoption to “roughly follow these products, particularly Apple Watch. Apple can expect a high share of a relatively small consumer base.”

However, CIRP notes two major differences between these wearables and the upcoming mixed reality headset from Apple. First, Bluetooth headphones and smartwatches were “more developed” when Apple entered the market.

Second, the Reality Pro headset is expected to be priced at ~$3,000. That’s triple the cost of existing premium VR headsets like the Meta Quest Pro.

The report highlights that the last time Apple entered the market with a product 3x more expensive than the competition was with HomePod which. And the company is still far behind Amazon and Google in the smart speaker market.

But CIRP notes that it could be positive for the $3,000 Reality Pro headset to be appealing to just “the most serious” buyers as it will give time for Apple to work out early issues. That’s along with the expectation that many of the early adopters will be developers who are expected to help Apple create compelling experiences.

In the end, CIRP believes that the launch and development of Reality Pro will be fascinating to follow and that Apple is looking at the long game, not short-term results.

This is going to be interesting to follow. We don’t think that initial sales or even early product reviews are going to give more than a hint of the long-term potential for Apple Reality.