Katy Huberty Stories December 14, 2015

iphone-sales

Update: Fortune reports that in a conference call, Huberty said her forecast was in part based on an estimated 10% drop in component orders. She noted that this could be due to robust inventories rather than weak demand, and that the numbers in the note were a ‘worst-case’ scenario. Huberty emphasized that she remains upbeat on Apple, citing a strong brand, loyal customers, R&D investment and other revenue streams compensating for weaker predicted iPhone sales.

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The brand is strong. Customers are loyal. Gross margins are stable. R&D is going full tilt. And revenue streams from new products (Watch, Apple TV), apps, and media could start to make up for slowing iPhone growth.

An investment note by Morgan Stanley Katy Huberty predicts that Apple will see its iPhone sales fall by 5.7% in Apple’s 2016 financial year, reports Business Insider. The prediction is significant for two reasons: if realised, it would be the first time since the launch of the iPhone that sales have fallen year-on-year – and the forecast is made by a noted Apple bull.

Morgan Stanley thinks that Financial Year 2016 iPhones sales will be 218 million – a 5.7% drop — while Calendar Year 2016 sales will be 224,000 — a 2.9% drop. These predictions are significantly below Huberty’s previous estimates, of 247 million for FY2016 and 252 CY2016.

One of the reasons given isn’t new – high smartphone penetration in developed markets – but Huberty says there is a second reason …

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Katy Huberty Stories October 15, 2014

aapl

Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty has added AAPL to its Best Ideas list of investments, saying that increased margins from iPhone 6 sales see the stock “set for significant upside.”

While Credit Suisse had earlier suggested that margins on the iPhone 6 would be lower than that of the iPhone 5s and 5c, Huberty says that numerous sources are suggesting that more people this time are opting for the middle storage tier, thus pushing up both average selling price and margins …  expand full story

Katy Huberty Stories August 19, 2014

iPhone-6-Concept-Martin-Hajek-2

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is advising investors that now is the time to buy AAPL shares – and not just because the iPhone 6 is on the way.

Huberty gives eight reasons (via BusinessInsider) for believing that the price of AAPL stock is likely to increase. None of them are new, but the combined effect is persuasive, she argues …  expand full story

Katy Huberty Stories July 25, 2014

investment Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty says that an analysis of Apple’s recent SEC filing strongly suggests that the company has not only made a big bet on the success of the iPhone 6, with large advance orders, but also that it is likely to launch the long-awaited iWatch this quarter.

The graph, obtained by Business Insider, shows the historical correlation between off-balance sheet commitments – the technical financial term for money invested in things like tooling, component purchases and manufacturing contracts – and quarterly revenue. Essentially, if you know how much Apple is investing in new products in one quarter, you can pretty accurately predict its revenue in the following quarter …  expand full story

Katy Huberty Stories July 23, 2014

apple-margin-evans

While Wall Street may have been slightly disappointed by some of the numbers Apple reported yesterday, they should feel reassured by Apple stabilising and growing its gross margins, say Apple bulls – analysts who expect the stock price to rise.

Business Insider noted the above chart tweeted by Benedict Evans with the commentary:

Very stable long-term gross margins. Painful contrast to rest of the industry …

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Katy Huberty Stories July 14, 2014

iwatch

Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty is predicting that the iWatch could achieve sales of 30-60 million units in its first year as sales growth mimics that of the iPhone or iPad, reports Fortune.

While some analysts point to modest sales of existing smartwatches as evidence that the iWatch is likely to be a relatively minor new category for Apple, Huberty believes that they are using the wrong measure.

It’s that loyalty and the so-called “halo effect,” Huberty writes, not the current watch market, that will drive sales of the unannounced product that she (like everybody else) is calling the iWatch …

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Katy Huberty Stories March 19, 2014

Photo: digitaltrends.com

Photo: digitaltrends.com

Predictions of disappointing Q2 iPhone sales could be unduly pessimistic, says Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty. She expects Apple to announce that it shipped 42M iPhones in the first quarter of the year (Apple’s fiscal Q2), rather than the 38M suggested by supply chain analysis, reports Business Insider. This would represent year-on-year growth of more than 4.5M handsets.

Huberty says that the supply chain may work in overdrive during the holiday quarter to generate extra product, and then ease back in the March quarter, thus giving an unreliable read out on sales.

Huberty bases her estimate on a method which sounds eccentric but has an excellent track-record …  expand full story

Katy Huberty Stories February 19, 2014

Want to see who’s buying and selling AAPL? SEC filings provide the answer

Tables compiled by Whale Wisdom from SEC filings show which hedge funds bought AAPL shares last quarter and which ones sold (via Fortune).

The numbers show that 1,010 funds bought AAPL stock, while 847 sold. Morgan Stanley led the bulls – those buying – with purchases of 1.36M shares. As Fortune observes, this is no surprise given Katy Huberty’s target price of $630 (against a current price of $546 at the time of writing).

Katy Huberty Stories February 4, 2014

iWatch could be worth as much as iPhone & iPad first-year sales combined, says Morgan Stanley

Estimating the revenue value of a product whose price is unknown and whose existence hasn’t even been confirmed is probably about as tenuous as it gets, but Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty reckons that the iWatch could generate $17.5 billion in the first twelve months.

To put that into perspective, the iPhone generated $2.5B and the iPad $12B in their respective first 12 months of sales … 

Katy Huberty Stories February 22, 2013

Analyst more confident low-cost iPhone is on the way following meeting with Apple’s CFO

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty issued a note to clients today claiming she is even more confident Apple will introduce a low-cost iPhone following a meeting with Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer. This certainly isn’t the first time we’ve heard an analyst discuss the much-rumored low-cost iPhone. Since its release, the success of the lower-priced iPad mini has been the rationale behind many analysts prediction of a less expensive iPhone expected to launch sometime later this year. We’re not so sure Oppenheimer let anything slip that we wouldn’t have otherwise heard at the most recent earnings call, but Huberty wrote she is even more confident that the device is in the works following the meeting with the Apple executive (via BusinessInsider). Her reasoning: success of the iPad mini in emerging markets, desire among Chinese consumers to purchase a new, low-cost device, and the continued success of iPhone 4 during last quarter:

We also see several signs that a lower priced iPhone makes sense: 1) iPad Mini is expanding Apple’s customer base with 50% of purchases in China/Brazil representing new customers to the ecosystem. 2) Chinese consumers show a desire to purchase the latest version of iPhone (instead of discounted older generations). 3) iPhone 4 demand surprised to the upside in the December quarter. Even at a low 40% gross margin and 1/3 cannibalization rate, we see an “iPhone Mini” as incremental to revenue and gross profit dollars.

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