Update 8/29: Will today be the day? Mark Gurman isn’t explicitly saying it, but he’s certainly hinting at it in this post: “In what will be the first of two (yes) tech event announcements today, Amazon says its new devices event will be held on September 20th, 8 days after the iPhone 15 event.”
Our breakdown of when Apple will likely announce the iPhone 15 event date, in which I float today but conservatively and now probably inaccurately predict a week from today, follows. Stay tuned!
Update #2: Yep!
iPhone events are always exciting. iPhone event date announcements? That’s the next best thing. We already have a good idea of when Apple will unveil the iPhone 15 line, but when should we expect Apple to make the date official?
iPhone 15 event rumor
9to5Mac first heard that Apple was targeting around September 13 for the iPhone 15 announcement, and Bloomberg has pinpointed September 12 as the likely date.
While it’s guaranteed that Apple will release a new iPhone every fall, there’s less consistency in how soon an Apple event is announced before it’s held.
Going back to the iPhone 5 in 2012, Apple has announced iPhone events as soon as two weeks and as little as one week in advance.
The most frequent range is tied between 7 days and 12 days. That would put an announcement on either August 31 or September 5 for an event on September 12.
To give you an idea of how unpredictable the gap can be, just look at the last two iPhones.
A year ago, Apple announced the iPhone 14 event a full two weeks before the event took place. The year before, Apple set the date for the iPhone 13 announcement just one week before the event.
There are lots of factors that go into how soon Apple announces events before they happen. The iPhone 14 event was the only time Apple revealed the date 14 days ahead of time. Being the first in-person iPhone event for the press in three years was likely a factor.
When will the event be announced?
The only accurate prediction one can make based on the September 12 event rumor is that the iPhone 15 event will be announced between August 29 and September 5.
We can rule out weekends and the Labor Day holiday for an event announcement. It would be a first if the announcement came on a Friday, too, so let’s rule those out.
That leaves us with just four possible dates for the iPhone 15 event announcement:
- Tuesday, August 29
- Wednesday, August 30
- Thursday, August 31
- Tuesday, September 5
Let’s look at the data going back to the iPhone 5 event announcement in 2012 again. Events have been announced four times on a Tuesday, once on a Wednesday, and five times on a Thursday.
Wednesday is least likely and Thursday is most likely. Tuesday has been the day just once less than Thursday, however, and there are two Tuesdays among our possible event announcement dates.
Predicting the event announcement date based on an event rumor seems unwise, but we’re unwound enough red string for our conspiracy wall that we might as well take a shot at it.
I’m going with Tuesday, September 5 as the date for when Apple will announce the iPhone 15 event. Why? Even though there was a two week run up a year ago, the one week run up is three times as common.
Of course, while my brain says September 5 is most likely, my heart hopes for the earlier August 29 event date announcement. What do you think? Let us know and make your own predictions in the comments.
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