Reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new note today that includes a prediction for exactly how much coronavirus will impact iPhone shipments for the current quarter, as well as how the entire smartphone market might be affected for the first half of the year.

As the situation around coronavirus has developed over the past weeks, we’ve heard forecasts from various analysts about complications that Apple could see with the iPhone SE 2/9 that’s expected this spring as well as iPhone 11 production. However, most of the forecasts so far have been general warnings about how the virus might slow down iPhone production.

Today, Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a note that gives a concrete prediction due to the fact that his “latest survey indicates that the iPhone supply is being affected by the Coronavirus” that sees iPhone shipments for the quarter dropping by 10%. That puts Kuo’s iPhone shipments estimate for this quarter at 36-40 million.

Looking further into the future, he notes that Q2 2020 (Apple’s fiscal Q3) is difficult to forecast based on how the coronavirus epidemic will play out.

Last week, Kuo highlighted new Apple products to expect this year including a wireless charger, AirTag, and over-ear headphones. However, he guided that coronavirus could delay the launches.

Yesterday, we learned that Apple has closed all of its retail stores and corporate offices in mainland China until February 9 due to the coronavirus. Time will tell if the closures will extend past that date.

Other factors playing into a slowdown of overall global smartphone sales include the US-China trade war, and “replacement demand from 5G smartphones is lower than brands’ expectations.” Total smartphone shipments in China during the New Year holiday period were down as much as 60% YoY with Kuo predicting a difficult first half of 2020, particularly for Chinese companies.

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Michael Potuck

Michael is an editor for 9to5Mac. Since joining in 2016 he has written more than 3,000 articles including breaking news, reviews, and detailed comparisons and tutorials.