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AAPL earnings will come in well above upper end of company’s guidance, say analysts, at $68.3B

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Fortune has done its usual analyst poll ahead of Apple announcing its Q1 earnings tomorrow, and Wall Street is expecting the company to significantly out-perform its earnings guidance of $63.5 to $66.5B.

The consensus among the analysts Fortune polled — 20 professionals and 15 amateurs — is that Apple’s total sales for fiscal Q1 2015 will come in at about $68.3 billion, up 21% year over year.

That would be $1.8B above the upper end of the expectations Apple set back in October … 
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Final IDC numbers for U.S. PC shipments confirm Mac hit highest ever market share

IDC has finalized the preliminary PC shipment numbers released last month, confirming that the Mac hit its highest ever share of the U.S. market at 13%. Apple regained the place in lost to Lenovo back in April, moving back into third place behind HP at 28% and Dell with 24%.

Apple reported year-on-year growth of more than 20% in its Q4 earnings report, with Mac sales of 5.52M. In a subsequent interview with the WSJ, Tim Cook asked:

Would you rather own the Mac business or any of the Windows OEMs?

We learned recently that Apple’s share of the worldwide tablet market fell markedly from 29.2% last year to 22.8% this year, thanks to both falling sales and an increase in the number of competitor tablets, especially at the low end. The news was not all bad, however, with U.S. data showing that the iPad continues to dominate web usage, accounting for almost 80% of North American tablet traffic on the web, leaving its three largest competitors all down in single digits.

What are your purchase plans for the iPhone 6? (Poll)

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Last time we asked you, back in April, we’d seen only reports and alleged molds for the two different sizes of iPhone 6. At that stage, 60 percent of you planned to buy the 4.7-inch iPhone 6, with just under a third eyeing-up the 5.5-inch model. A further 8 percent were planning to stick with existing models, and two percent expecting to get a Droid.

Since then we’ve of course seen a huge number of leaked parts, and even what appear to be working versions of the 4.7-inch model. Both models are now expected to go on sale on 19th September, so we thought it would be interesting to see if and how your plans have changed

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Macs fall to 4th best-selling computer in USA (IDC) – or remain 3rd (Gartner)

PC shipment estimates for the first quarter of 2014 are out from both IDC and Gartner, and as usual the two companies disagree. IDC shows Apple falling to 4th place in the U.S., behind Lenovo, while Gartner has the company remaining in 3rd place just ahead of Lenovo.

Both agree, however, that Apple’s U.S. market share has fallen somewhat year-on-year, IDC showing a drop from 11 to 10.3 percent, while Gartner’s numbers show a decline from 11.5 to 10.8 percent. The differences are relatively small, however, with both sets of numbers show that around 1.5 million Macs were sold in the first quarter of the year.

Apple’s share of the global PC market has mostly climbed year-on-year over the past decade.

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Apple’s market share in China started climbing even before China Mobile deal; Russian sales double

Photo: readwrite.com

While smartphone growth is slowing in China, Apple managed to increase its market share from 6 to 7 percent in the final quarter of 2013, even before the China Mobile deal was struck. IDC figures reported by the WSJ show that Apple is now the fifth largest smartphone seller in the country, behind Samsung, Lenovo, Coolpad and Huawei. Xiaomi sits just behind Apple at 6 percent.

Apple’s share is likely to increase significantly in the current quarter, thanks to finally being sold through China’s largest carrier, China Mobile. The carrier has more than 760M subscribers, and analysts have estimated that the deal will generate between 15M and 30M additional iPhone sales in the course of 2014.

iPhone sales in Russia, meantime, doubled to 1.57M units with a total value of $1B, reports Bloomberg. Apple had struggled to persuade Russian carriers to sell the iPhone due to its high price and laws that forbid carriers from discounting up-front prices in return for signing up to lengthy contracts. After selling through electronics stores, however, three Russian carriers resumed selling iPhones within the past few months.

The so-called BRIC markets – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are of huge importance to Apple now that the U.S. and Europe have reached saturation point. While Apple will never compete in market share with the low-end Android handsets available in these markets, there is still significant growth potential at the high end. In an earlier WSJ interview, Tim Cook said:

I look at the mobile phone market as having three kinds of phones: feature phones, smartphones that function as or are used as feature phones, and real smartphones. I do care about the market share of the last category and you want to be relevant.

The importance of the BRIC markets was illustrated when it was revealed that Apple’s Asian sales had outstripped those of Europe even by Q1 of last year. Next quarter’s China numbers are going to make very interesting reading.

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A billion smartphones were sold last year, says IDC

Image: theguardian.com

A billion smartphones were sold in 2013, according to IDC data, the first time the milestone has been hit. The number represents one smartphone sale for every seventh man, woman and child on the planet.

IDC says that price has been the main driver for growth, putting yesterday’s market share stats into perspective.

Markets like China and India are quickly moving toward a point where sub-$150 smartphones are the majority of shipments

Three new reports show the state of the nation for the iPhone

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Photo: ibtimes.com

The latest numbers from IDCABI and Strategy Analytics (the latter not yet online) paint an interesting picture of where the smartphone business currently stands, and where the iPhone sits within it.

The overall picture for smartphones is, of course, strong. IDC reports:

In the worldwide smartphone market, vendors shipped 237.9 million units in 2Q13 compared to the 156.2 million units shipped in 2Q12. This represents 52.3% year-over-year-growth, the highest annual growth rate in five quarters. Second quarter shipments were up 10.0% when compared to the 216.3 million units shipped in 1Q13.

While ABI pegged the year-on-year growth at a significantly lower 44 percent, it’s clear that much of the traditional featurephone market is switching to smartphones.

The high-end also remains strong, with both the iPhone and Samsung S4 outpacing the smartphone market as a whole, though both sets of figures show iPhone growth at a long-time low … 
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When PCs become trucks: IDC projects 2015 as Tablet/PC inflection point

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Market research firm IDC released new data today forecasting that tablet sales will grow “58.7% year-over-year in 2013 reaching 229.3 million units, up from 144.5 million units last year.”

With the PC market on track to see negative growth for the second year in a row, IDC predicts we’ll see more tablet shipments than portable computer shipments this year. More importantly, IDC predicts that 2015 will mark the first year tablets will outsell both notebook and desktop computers.

While Apple has been at the forefront of the tablet revolution, the current market expansion has been increasingly fueled by low-cost Android devices. In 2013, the worldwide average selling price (ASP) for tablets is expected to decline -10.8% to $381. In comparison, the ASP of a PC in 2013 is nearly double that at $635. IDC expects tablet prices to decline further, which will allow vendors to deliver a viable computing experience into the hands of many more people at price points the PC industry has strived to meet for years.


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Report: Apple and Samsung dominate Q4 with 51 percent of global smartphone market

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Q4 2012 estimates from Strategy Analytics

While Samsung has conveniently left specific smartphone sales numbers out of its Q4 earnings release yesterday (as usual), today we get a look at the latest estimates for the quarter coming from research firms Strategy Analytics and IDC.

We know that Apple sold 47.8 million iPhones during the quarter, and today both research firms put Samsung just over 63 million units for Q4 2012. That means Samsung was able to capture 29 percent of the market last quarter (up from 36.2 million units and 22.5-percent of the market in the year ago quarter). Apple is of course a close second among the top five smartphone vendors with 21.8-percent—down slightly from the 23 percent it held in the same quarter last year. In Q4 2011, Apple and Samsung were neck and neck at about 23 percent of the market each.

The increasing market share for Apple, and especially Samsung, over the past year comes at the expense of Nokia. It experienced a drop from 16 percent to 5 percent of the market during the past year. 
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Gartner and IDC see Apple’s share of declining US PC market grow to 12.5-percent to 13.6-percent

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Both IDC and Gartner are out with their reports for PC shipments in the third quarter today. While Apple is not in the top five vendors for worldwide shipments, estimates from the two firms place Apple’s share of the United States market at 12.5-percent to 13.6-percent.

According to IDC’s numbers (above), Apple captured 12.5-percent of U.S. PC shipments in the third quarter. This is up from 11.8-percent in the same quarter last year. Apple faced a year-over-year unit decline of 7 percent, but market leaders HP and Dell posted shipment declines of 18.8-percent and 16 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, shipments for the U.S. market in total were down 12.4-percent.

In comparison, the same numbers from Gartner have the total market decline at 13.8-percent. Apple hit 13.6-percent of the U.S. market, where as it had a 12.5-percent estimate for Q3 2011. Estimates from both firms put Apple’s market position firmly behind HP and Dell, despite IDC estimating fourth-place Lenovo’s growth at over 9 percent for the quarter:

Four of the top 5 vendors in the U.S. market experienced shipment declines. HP maintained the No. 1 position in the U.S. market despite a shipment decline of 19.3 percent (see Table 2). Lenovo was the only vendor among the top 5 to increase shipments. Both Acer and Toshiba shipments declined significantly due to the tough environment in the consumer market. Apple expected to have a PC shipment decline due to softness in the public market, but the company faced a slowdown in the consumer market.

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IDC: iPad still owns over 2/3rds of the tablet market, but Samsung and ASUS are gaining

Apple’s iPad set a shipment record in Q2 2012, which led to a “better-than-anticipated” quarter for the entire tablet market, according to the latest data from IDC.

Global tablet shipments hit 25 million units, with a 66.2-percent year-over-year increase, while Apple jumped from 11.8 million units shipped in Q1 2012 to 17 million for Q2.

“Apple built upon its strong March iPad launch and ended the quarter with its best-ever shipment total for the iPad, outrunning even the impressive shipment record it set in the fourth quarter of last year,” said Research Director Tom Mainelli.

Four of the top five worldwide vendors also eyed shipment increases year-over-year and solid growth in Q2. Samsung sits at second place with 2.4 million units shipped, which is an increase from 1.1 million units in Q2 2011, and ASUS notably almost tripled its amount of units shipped from a year ago. Interestingly, shipments of the Google/ASUS-branded Nexus 7 are not a part of these totals.

Get the full breakdown at IDC.

This article is cross-posted at 9to5Google.


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IDC: Samsung ships twice as many phones as Apple in Q2

The IDC’s latest numbers mirror yesterday’s figures from Juniper Research.

One of the report’s main headliners is that phones are shipping faster than in previous years. About 406 million units shipped in Q2 2012—up from 401.8 million units in Q2 2011. Smartphone shipments also eyed a large year-over-year increase with a 42 percent gain.

The other big news bit concerns Samsung and Apple. The tech giants doubled their combined market share in just two years. Samsung, in particular, hit a new quarterly record after shipping 50 million phones in Q2, where as Apple shipped half as many iPhones during the same time. The Cupertino, Calif.-based Company suffered a quarter-over-quarter decline just six months after its latest iPhone unveiling.

IDC explained the widening gap: 

  • Samsung extended its lead over Apple during the second quarter, taking advantage of Apple’s release schedule and launching its flagship Galaxy S III. In addition, Samsung experienced continued success of its smartphone/tablet hybrid device, the Galaxy Note. As a result, Samsung topped the 50 million unit mark and reached a new quarterly smartphone shipment record in a single quarter. What remains to be seen is how the company’s smartphones will fare against Apple’s next-generation iPhone expected later this year.
  • Apple posted an expected sequential decline last quarter, similar to years past. The quarter-over-quarter shipment decline came six months after it unveiled its latest iPhone. The decline is not unusual as iPhone shipment volume is highest in the first two quarters after its release. The company’s once-a-year release cycle usually results in two quarters of lower volumes leading up to the next-generation model introduction. Nonetheless, Apple made significant inroads into new markets and segments, including smaller regional carriers and prepaid service providers.


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IDC: Nokia share halved as iPhone becomes king of the hill in Australia

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In what is becoming a global trend, IDC found that Nokia uptake in Australia fell spectacularly from almost 50% in Q1 last year to less than 25% this year.

Its first quarter 2011 figures show that in just 12 months, Nokia has not only lost market dominance, its phone market share has halved: from 49.5 per cent in the first quarter of last year and 44.2 per cent in Q4, to just 24.6 per cent in the first quarter this year.

Perhaps even more scary for the people at Nokia, who are also jumping from their “burning platform”: Windows Phone 7 is actually dropping share year over year from the previous Windows Mobile.

Who is picking up the slack?
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