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13 'Share price' stories July 2011 - August 2015
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Why is AAPL stock falling despite record sales, profits and cash?

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Aug 5 2015 - 7:27 am PT
31 Comments

The stock market can often seem an irrational place, and never more so than where AAPL is concerned. The company keeps reporting record sales, has typically out-performed analyst expectations, takes home almost the entire smartphone industry’s profits and has so much cash it scarcely knows what to do with it – yet its share price is falling.

AAPL stock has fallen more than 14% since April, wiping $113B from the company’s market valuation. It dropped 7% in the past month alone. That’s the equivalent of McDonalds vanishing into thin air. What gives? 
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Two days after AAPL hits highest market cap ever, billionaire investor Carl Icahn values it at $1.3 trillion

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Feb 12 2015 - 4:07 am PT
8 Comments

Two days after Apple set a new record for the highest market capitalization of any company, valuing it at more than $700B, billionaire investor Carl Icahn has suggested the true value of the company is close to double this, at $1.3T.

Icahn, who is one of the company’s ten biggest shareholders with stock worth around $6.5B, says that a realistic valuation of the company would be 20 times its earnings per share. Factoring in Apple’s cash reserves of $178B, that would give a share price of $216–for a total company value of $1.3T.

Icahn notes that while he has previously been criticized for over-optimistic valuations of AAPL, 31 analysts have “dramatically increased” their earnings-per-share estimates in the past fortnight.

We have gained further confidence in our thesis, increasing the forecasted EPS for FY 2015 in our model from $9.60 to $9.70, and now believe the market should value Apple at $216 per share.  This is why we continue to own approximately 53 million shares worth $6.5 billion, and why we have not sold a single share.

Icahn has consistently urged Apple’s board to increase the pace of its stock buyback program, his last call coming at a time when the shares were trading at $100. At the time of writing, shares were trading at $124.88. Apple recently set another world record, announcing the highest ever quarterly profit of any company.

Apple analysts: Know what’s really cool? A trillion dollar market cap

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Nov 18 2014 - 8:09 am PT
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Analysts attending the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit in New York have suggested that Apple could eventually be valued at a trillion dollars.

Gains in shares of Apple Inc could take the world’s largest publicly traded company to a market capitalization of perhaps as high as $1 trillion, some of the country’s biggest investors said on Monday.

AAPL got two-thirds of the way there a few days ago, reaching $663B, since climbing further to $670B, and billionaire investor Carl Icahn suggested last month that the company should already be valued at a trillion dollars … 
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Most analysts satisfied with Apple’s announcements, think AAPL stock will climb

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Sep 11 2014 - 7:16 am PT
8 Comments
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Big-name analysts seemed satisfied with what they saw and heard during Apple’s launch of the iPhone 6, Apple Watch and Apple Pay, reports Forbes. Summarising investor notes from a dozen major companies, Chuck Jones found the general feeling was that Apple had delivered what was expected.

The overall average of AAPL stock price targets was $109, against the current price of just over $100. Analysts pointed to a range of factors in forming their views, among them … 
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PSA: Don’t be surprised (or worried) if AAPL stock dips after iPhone 6 launch …

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Sep 1 2014 - 5:33 am PT
8 Comments

If there’s one thing as certain as the hype when Apple launches a new iPhone, it’s the “Apple is doomed” messages when the new model(s) fail to meet every single analyst prediction, no matter how crazy. Apple could add a matter transporter function to the iPhone 6 and some analyst would be complaining that it only operates on WiFi when they were expecting it to use LTE.

Business Insider pointed to a set of CNN charts which show that, typically, the AAPL stock price is down a month after a new iPhone launch. But any similar dip we might see after the launch of the iPhone 6 is no cause for concern: with the exception of 2013, Apple stock has been climbing since the first iPhone was launched in 2007.

As ever, make your own investment decisions with the aid of professional advice, but there certainly doesn’t appear to be any reason to be spooked if the launch of the new iPhone leads to some investors selling their shares. “Buy on the rumor, sell on the news” is a very common approach.

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Reminder: 7-1 AAPL stock split takes effect today

Avatar for Seth Weintraub Jun 9 2014 - 4:13 am PT
2 Comments

 

Apple’s first stock split since 2005 takes effect today, but the computers that track the stock price often forget to take that into consideration (above).

Why the 7-1 split? The lower buying price may open the door to more investments from smaller investors, and the ~$100 price would let it major indices list AAPL, opening the door to more investment. 
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What’s an Icahn tweet worth? About $8B in AAPL’s value …

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Oct 2 2013 - 5:57 am PT
6 Comments

Fortune ran a couple of pieces showing what happened to Apple’s stock price after investor Carl Icahn’s tweets, with his initial announcement that he had taken a “large position” in AAPL, followed by news that he’d had a “nice conversation” with Apple CEO Tim Cook – and a subsequent tweet yesterday that he’d “pushed hard for a 150 billion buyback” over a “cordial dinner.”

The total effect? A jump in Apple’s valuation totalling around $23B – or approaching a cool $8B per tweet.

Would be nice to know when he’s about to tweet, eh?
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Exxon surpasses Apple’s market cap to become world’s most valuable company

Avatar for Jordan Kahn Jan 25 2013 - 9:21 am PT
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After posting record holiday earnings for the final quarter of 2012 this week but continuing to see its stock price fall, Exxon Mobil has now surpassed Apple’s market cap value to become the world’s most valuable company. Apple’s market cap at the time of this writing sits at 414.04B verus 417.36B for Exxon. Apple has for the most part held its position since AAPL passed Exxon for the first time to take the top spot back in August 2011. It’s possible Apple could retake its position before trading closes, so we’ll update this post if anything changes.

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Report: Drops in Apple’s share price historically followed by surge in earnings growth

Avatar for Jordan Kahn Nov 12 2012 - 6:58 am PT
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In October, Apple stock dropped below 600 for the first time since July. Since then, following a number of new product launches, AAPL has continued to fall and now only sits slightly higher than last week at roughly 550 per share and a market cap of $518 billion. While many have pointed to uncertainty regarding new product launches and executive level changes as the cause of Apple’s falling share price, no one quite has a definitive answer for why AAPL has hit a nearly six-month low. In a report today, titled “A dramatic reading of Apple’s share price”, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu might have the answer.

Dediu studied 13 bear AAPL markets starting with the October 2001 launch of the iPod. As noted in the report, Apple’s stock had just fallen 70 percent year-over-year and continued to drop another 20 percent following the iPod launch. However, since the iPhone launch, Dediu found “every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth.” The graph above maps earnings growth following bear Apple markets since the 2007 iPhone introduction.

So, why exactly does this happen? Dediu explained his theory:


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AAPL hits 400

Avatar for Seth Weintraub Jul 25 2011 - 10:13 am PT
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Apple briefly hit 400 during after hours trading following the blowout earning release last week, but then fell into the 380s for the open the following day. Since then, it has been on a swift rise back up to 400 where it briefly hit at 12:54 ET today. It has fallen slightly since.

Apple’s market cap is nearing $370B, second only to Exxon who is currently near $410B. (thanks York!)


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