The Apple Bears appear to be winning over the past month and change. Apple’s stock price is now at its lowest price since May and is closing in on its February price in the 520s. At 530, Apple’s market cap is now below 500 billion. So much for those $1 trillion valuations? Read more
In October, Apple stock dropped below 600 for the first time since July. Since then, following a number of new product launches, AAPL has continued to fall and now only sits slightly higher than last week at roughly 550 per share and a market cap of $518 billion. While many have pointed to uncertainty regarding new product launches and executive level changes as the cause of Apple’s falling share price, no one quite has a definitive answer for why AAPL has hit a nearly six-month low. In a report today, titled “A dramatic reading of Apple’s share price”, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu might have the answer.
Dediu studied 13 bear AAPL markets starting with the October 2001 launch of the iPod. As noted in the report, Apple’s stock had just fallen 70 percent year-over-year and continued to drop another 20 percent following the iPod launch. However, since the iPhone launch, Dediu found “every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth.” The graph above maps earnings growth following bear Apple markets since the 2007 iPhone introduction.
So, why exactly does this happen? Dediu explained his theory:
Have to say that as a 9to5Mac reader, there were no surprises for you today. On the other hand, the market isn’t so happy with AAPL shares currently trading at 356, down almost 18 points.
Update: Check that. AAPL is making a comeback, but judging by the comments, all is not well.
Apple briefly hit 400 during after hours trading following the blowout earning release last week, but then fell into the 380s for the open the following day. Since then, it has been on a swift rise back up to 400 where it briefly hit at 12:54 ET today. It has fallen slightly since.
Apple’s market cap is nearing $370B, second only to Exxon who is currently near $410B. (thanks York!)