As previously announced, today Apple is reporting its Q1 2013 earnings results. There is much uncertainty going into today’s call with Apple shares down significantly in recent months to roughly $500 since hitting a high of over $700 per share in September. With the iPhone 5 landing in a total of 100 countries last month, as well as iPad mini making its way to new markets, Wall Street estimates Apple will report between 47.5 million and 53 million iPhones sold and iPad sales between 23 million and 25 million. Compare that with Apple’s Q1 numbers last year: 37 million iPhones and 15.43 million iPads sold. Earlier this week Verizon reported 6.2M iPhone activations for the quarter, around half of which were iPhone 5 sales.
We’ll be providing blow-by-blow coverage of the earnings call in our live blog below at 2 PM Pacific/5 PM Eastern time. Stay tuned to 9to5Mac.com’s homepage for additional coverage:
In October, Apple stock dropped below 600 for the first time since July. Since then, following a number of new product launches, AAPL has continued to fall and now only sits slightly higher than last week at roughly 550 per share and a market cap of $518 billion. While many have pointed to uncertainty regarding new product launches and executive level changes as the cause of Apple’s falling share price, no one quite has a definitive answer for why AAPL has hit a nearly six-month low. In a report today, titled “A dramatic reading of Apple’s share price”, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu might have the answer.
Dediu studied 13 bear AAPL markets starting with the October 2001 launch of the iPod. As noted in the report, Apple’s stock had just fallen 70 percent year-over-year and continued to drop another 20 percent following the iPod launch. However, since the iPhone launch, Dediu found “every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth.” The graph above maps earnings growth following bear Apple markets since the 2007 iPhone introduction.
So, why exactly does this happen? Dediu explained his theory:
At Apple’s Q4 earnings call today, Apple CEO Tim Cook was asked his thoughts on Microsoft’s new Surface tablet PC. Cook called it “a fairly compromised, confusing product,” and he compared it to a car that flies and floats:
”I haven’t personally played with a Surface yet… what we’re reading about it is… it’s a fairly compromised, confusing product… the toughest thing you do with a product is make hard trade offs.. we’ve really done that with the iPad.. the user experience is absolutely incredible… i suppose you could design a car that flies and floats, but i don’t think it would do all of those things well.. i think when people look at the iPad over competitive offerings they are going to really want an iPad
Cook also noted that iPhone 5 is still seeing delays but supplies are getting better: Read more
A few things we already know from CEO Tim Cook’s announcements during the iPad mini event: 5 million iPhones 5s sold during opening weekend, 3 million new iPod nano and touch units sold, and 200 million iOS 6 devices. Cook also noted the company has now sold 100 million iPads in 2.5 years and more iPads in June than any PC manufacturers’ entire PC lineup.
In Q3 Apple reported revenues of $35 billion. As for Q4, Apple predicted during its last conference call that revenues for the fourth quarter would be around $34 billion with diluted earnings per share of about $7.65. Today, Forbes pointed us to updated estimates from Wall Street showing a consensus of $8.81 on sales of $36.02 billion.
Forbes has also posted revised estimates from 36 analysts (below). Among the 20 pros in the group, the average estimate is $8.75 on sales of $35.51 billion. The independents, on the other hand, have earnings of $9.66 on sales of $37.23 billion.
As you can see from the chart of the 36 analysts below (pros in blue), the high-end of iPhone estimates hit the 32 million-unit mark, while one independent has Mac sales as high as 5.70 million units:
Apple’s live call to discuss Q1 2012 earnings is underway. We’re live blogging the call, where Apple is discussing their record breaking figures they just announced. You can follow along below, or listen to the call on Apple’s Investor Relations page.
Update: that’s a wrap. Thanks for joining us! You can read the highlights from today’s call after the break: