Wall Street

Morgan Stanley is predicting in an investor note that around 10% of those who own an iPhone 5 or later will buy an Apple Watch, generating first year sales of around 30M – right at the top end of the 10-30M range suggested by other analysts.

While predicting likely sales of a new product category is always a rather shaky undertaking, and sales of competitor smartwatches may not prove a reliable guide, Morgan Stanley thinks there is one clue to how well the Apple Watch might sell: the precedent set by the iPad … 
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Not much is known about Apple’s deals with its suppliers, but court filings by former sapphire supplier GT Advanced reveal that the contract included a $50M penalty for any leak of Apple product information, reports the Financial Times.

While the amount of the penalty clause may vary according to the size of the supplier, it seems likely that a substantial leak penalty is a standard condition of supplying product components to Apple – though the number of leaks over the iPhone 6 suggests that such penalties offer limited protection.

Contracts between Apple and its suppliers will undoubtedly be subject to strict non-disclosure agreements, but lawyers for GT Advanced are asking the court to allow details to be made public … 
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A patent application filed by Apple three years ago and approved today illustrates a new twist on the iWatch concept: a sensor-packed strap acting as a dock which allows a range of interchangeable modules to be snapped into place.

It’s not anything we’re likely to see make it into production: the docking concept dates back to 2011, and was probably intended by Apple to house an iPod Nano, converting it into a smartwatch in a more sophisticated version of the watch-straps sold in Apple Stores since way back in 2010. But the patent does tell us two things … 
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With Fortune having now filled in the blanks in its analyst roundup, above are the final numbers Wall Street expects Apple to announce at around 1.30pm PT/4.30pm ET this afternoon.

With all 34 analysts having revealed their predictions, the consensus view is for year-on-year revenue to have grown by 8.5 percent, with earnings up 18.1 percent … 
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Fortune ran its usual poll of more than two dozen analysts, with the consensus view echoing earlier predictions that Apple will beat its revenue guidance of $36-38B by reporting $38.4B for its fiscal Q3 (calendar Q2). Gross margin is also expected to exceed Apple’s guidance of 37-38 percent, at 38.1 percent. This follows forecasts that iPhone sales would climb 15 percent year-on-year, while iPad sales will be flat.

Business Insider reports that Wall Street is once again expecting significant growth from AAPL.

46 Apple analysts rate the stock a buy, 13 call it a hold, and only 4 thinks it’s a sell. Citigroup, which was bearish on the stock, changed its analyst coverage and rated the stock a new “buy.” JMP securities upgraded the stock to outperform Monday morning. Other analysts have raised their price target …

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Barron’s reports that institutional investors have returned Apple to its number one slot in its annual ranking of the world’s most respected companies, after it was beaten last year by Berkshire Hathaway.

Apple topped this year’s ranking by scoring 3.94, giving it a wide margin of victory. Berkshire scored 3.58, and the mean was 2.37. Apple received the highest number of Highly Respect votes …

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With so many new iOS and OS X features being introduced in yesterday’s WWDC keynote, the numbers that kicked off the show perhaps didn’t get the attention they otherwise might have done.

While the Wall Street line is that the smartphone market is saturated and iPhone and iPad growth is done, Tim Cook clearly thinks otherwise. Business Insider highlighted Cook’s comment on the migration Apple is seeing from Android phones.

“Over 130 million customers who bought an iOS device in the past 12 months were buying their first Apple device,” said Cook before introducing iOS 8, the new software for the iPhone and iPad. “Many of these customers were switchers from Android. They had bought an Android phone — by mistake. Then had sought a better experience … And a better life. And decided to check out iPhone and iOS.”

He added, “Nearly half of our customers in China in the past six months switch from Android to iPhone. This is incredible.”

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Judging by a roundup in The Wall Street Journal, analysts and investors appear not to share the enthusiasm for Beats acquisition express by Tim Cook and Eddy Cue. While Cook said he was “excited […] about this new chapter in our history” and Cue believed that “combining the two companies will help [music] grow again,” Wall Street is more skeptical.

“To see this kind of money spent for a company that gets most of its revenue from hardware business is not what we want to see,” said Dan Niles, chief investment officer of hedge fund AlphaOne Capital Partners …

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The consensus view of 40 analysts polled by Fortune is that Apple’s year-on-year revenue for its fiscal Q2 (Q1 of the calendar year) has fallen by 0.2 percent to $43.6B. This follows earlier predictions that iPhone sales will have grown two percent, and iPad sales will have dropped by 0.7 percent.

Most of our analysts (31 out to 40) are playing it safe, offering estimates within the range of Apple’s guidance — between $42 billion and $44 billion.

Seven think Apple will beat its revenue guidance — by half to three-quarters of a billion dollars, according to Merrill Lynch’s Scott Craig and the Braeburn Group’s Patrick Smellie, respectively. Two analysts — Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha and the Braeburn Group’s Sunil Shah — think Apple’s revenue may actually have fallen year over year …

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Photo: Business Insider

With Apple due to report its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, Fortune has been doing its usual analyst temperature-taking. The 37 analysts who have responded so far expect an average of $43.5B, toward the high end of the $42-44B Apple told the market to expect.

So what are our analysts expecting this week? No surprises, that’s for sure. The average revenue estimate of the 37 analysts we’ve heard from so far — 14 amateurs and 23 pros — is 43.5 billion, just above the midpoint of Oppenheimer’s range.

The amateurs, as usual, are a bit more bullish. They’re calling for earnings of $10.53 per share on sales of $43.66 billion. The pros are not far behind: earnings of $10.18 on sales of $43.42 billion …

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Photo: digitaltrends.com

Predictions of disappointing Q2 iPhone sales could be unduly pessimistic, says Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty. She expects Apple to announce that it shipped 42M iPhones in the first quarter of the year (Apple’s fiscal Q2), rather than the 38M suggested by supply chain analysis, reports Business Insider. This would represent year-on-year growth of more than 4.5M handsets.

Huberty says that the supply chain may work in overdrive during the holiday quarter to generate extra product, and then ease back in the March quarter, thus giving an unreliable read out on sales.

Huberty bases her estimate on a method which sounds eccentric but has an excellent track-record … 
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[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2i7Wr5xwDk]

As previously announced, today Apple is reporting its Q1 2013 earnings results. There is much uncertainty going into today’s call with Apple shares down significantly in recent months to roughly $500 since hitting a high of over $700 per share in September. With the iPhone 5 landing in a total of 100 countries last month, as well as iPad mini making its way to new markets, Wall Street estimates Apple will report between 47.5 million and 53 million iPhones sold and iPad sales between 23 million and 25 million. Compare that with Apple’s Q1 numbers last year: 37 million iPhones and 15.43 million iPads sold. Earlier this week Verizon reported 6.2M iPhone activations for the quarter, around half of which were iPhone 5 sales.

We’ll be providing blow-by-blow coverage of the earnings call in our live blog below at 2 PM Pacific/5 PM Eastern time. Stay tuned to 9to5Mac.com’s homepage for additional coverage:

Head below for updates…
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How many new iPads sold this quarter? Find out April 24 when Apple streams its earnings call after the market closes. Like always, we will be on hand to cover the news as it happens.

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Update: AAPL closed at 535.41 but is at 536.37 pushing its market cap over $500B

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Some folks noticed that shares of Apple, Inc. surged yesterday morning amid favorable market conditions. Today’s announcement of the March 7 iPad 3 unveiling has managed to push the Cupertino, Calif.-headquartered designer of shiny electronics to a new lifetime high. The Apple stock, which trades on NASDAQ under the AAPL symbol, was up nearly nine points, or more than 1.5-percent, in early afternoon trading.

Valued at $534.08 a share, the company was just shy of $500 billion in market valuation at the time of this writing. Wow, just wow. Talk about the iPad effect.

That is still below Microsoft’s $583 billion valuation from 1999, but the iPhone maker’s getting closer and closer with each passing day. AAPL first crossed the $500 a share milestone the day before Valentine’s Day. Earlier on Feb. 9, 2012, shares of Apple, Inc. passed 10 percent of all of NASDAQ value and traded at $431 a share. In addition, right following Valentine’s Day, Apple first passed the psychological $500 a share barrier. For comparison’s sake, AAPL on Steve Jobs’ Oct. 5, 2011 passing traded at $378.25.

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Analyst Andy Zaky overestimated Apple earnings by 20 percent last quarter.

Here’s his take right after: Why Apple’s big miss doesn’t matter. This miss is just a minor blip due to analysts getting overzealous with their estimates.

Today, he wrote: Apple Fiscal Q1 2012: The Biggest Earnings Blowout in History

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Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty wrote in a note to clients issued yesterday (via Fortune) that U.S. consumers are expect to buy more iPhones in the first calendar quarter of 2012 than even the holiday quarter this year. This is noteworthy as the holiday quarter has traditionally been Apple’s strongest three-month sales period.

Not even the two recent Samsung television commercials (here and here) that poke fun of line waiters seem to be slowing the iPhone momentum (unless you believe a YouGov survey, chart included below the fold). Huberty is now projecting CQ4 iPhone sales anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones versus the previous model calling for 30 million units (Wall Street: 28 million). For the first quarter of the next year, Huberty is projecting an astounding 41 million units based on last week’s comments from AT&T and an Alphawise survey conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving.

That’s a 46 percent increase over her previous 28 million estimate (Wall Street: 26 million). In all, Huberty wrote, Apple should sell 190 million iPhones during the calendar year 2012. As for iPad…

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Apple CEO Steve Jobs has been named 2010’s ‘Person of the Year’ even while US President, Barack Obama, speaks up for the wealth of the Apple co-founder.

The Financial Times named Jobs its person of the year, saying the introduction of the iPad marked the moment when the ‘rebound’ in Apple’s fortunes “was complete”.

The iPad is the culmination of an approach that he has seemingly been perfecting for his entire career,” stated the newspaper’s opinion writers.
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