KGI: Apple to sell over 71M iPhones in holiday quarter, followed by sub-50M to start 2015

KGI-iphone-2014

KGI Research’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analyst/firms with a respectable record on Apple forecasts, updated its iPhone sales expectation numbers this weekend for the holiday quarter and Q1 of 2015.

Strong iPhone shipments in 4Q14. We forecast overall iPhone shipments will surge 82% QoQ to 71.5mn units in 4Q14, given robust demand for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The iPhone 6 Plus supply shortage implies not only robust demand, but also confirms our concerns regarding constraints within the supply chain. We believe 4Q14 iPhone shipments will be stronger if supply chain constraints are eased.

Kuo notes that the iPhone 5c and 4s which are still sold in emerging markets [like Virgin Mobile in the US?!] will be discontinued in 2015 after promotions that ironically will improve low end sales numbers in Q1 2015. Subsequently, average price per device sold will also drop significantly for Apple in Quarter 1… Read more

KGI: 27″ Retina iMac ready to roll, 21″ next year, iPad Air 2 supply constrained, iPad minis to see minimal updates

imac-apple-2014

KGI has published a new research note indicating that the 27″ model of the new “Retina” iMac will begin shipping before the end of this year. However, according to the note, a 21-inch version which is currently in development will not be released until the beginning of 2015, probably alongside other products “early 2015″ like the Apple Watch and Photos for Mac.

With regards to the iPad Air 2, KGI says that constrained supplies are likely, with a possible initial shipment of only 7-9 million. Compare that to the original iPad Air, which kicked of sales with 12 million units. The iPad mini will be updated, but the changes will be more conservative than those coming to the Air. A 12.9″ iPad is also said to be in development, though no timeline seems to have been set for its release.

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KGI: GTAT bankruptcy unlikely to have impact on Apple Watch, future of sapphire iPhones uncertain

Screen Shot 2014-10-07 at 11.03.36 PM

KGI has published a new report clarifying that the recent announcement that Apple’s sapphire supplier had filed for bankruptcy will likely have no impact on the production of the comapny’s sapphire display-equipped wearable. According to KGI, GT was mainly contracted to create the sapphire crystal displays for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.

The reason Apple partnered with GT Advanced on the iPhone displays was related to the size of the screens. Because GT was the best equipped to manufacture a display the size of the new iPhone models. However, because the Apple Watch uses a smaller display, other companies are able to produce the covers as easily as GT. This is also why the Touch ID sensor and iPhone cameras, which both use a sapphire lens, will also be unaffected.

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KGI: 5.5-inch iPhone 6 likely to be delayed until after October, possibly until 2015

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has provided accurate Apple product information in the past (timing aside), has released a new research note predicting that supply constraints on key components may result in a serious delay in the release of the larger iPhone 6 model with a 5.5-inch display. According to the note, issues with the in-cell touch panel and coloring of the device could push the launch of the device back to a post-October date, possibly as late as next year:

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KGI: 4.7″ iPhone’s camera may not support optical image stabilization, 5.5″ likely will

iPhoneSchematicsScale

A new research note from KGI indicates that the 4.7-inch model of the iPhone 6 won’t support optical image stabilization due to constraints in the production of VCM suppliers. The larger 5.5-inch version is expected to support the feature, while the smaller device will employ a cheaper motor that’s similar to the one found in the iPhone 5s.

Rather, we predict it will use a middle-mount type of open-loop VCM updated from the one used in the existing iPhone 5S. The 5.5” iPhone 6 is more likely to be equipped with OIS VCM due to lower estimated shipments and the need for more product features to differentiate itself from the 4.7” iPhone 6.

The difference will reportedly be one of the factors that sets the two devices apart, lending further credence to the idea that these will not simply be two internally-identical devices with different display sizes as is currently the case with the iPad its “mini” counterpart.

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Are iPhone 5c sales low or supplies high?

Image: abcnews.com

Image: abcnews.com

KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with a solid track-record, and the man who came closest (almost) to calling opening weekend sales of the iPhone, now believes Apple shipped ‘just’ 11.4M iPhone 5c handsets in September, rather than the 17M he had earlier forecast, reports Business Insider.

Kuo is now estimating Apple shipped 11.4 million 5Cs in the September quarter, a 33% drop from his original estimate. He also says he expects 5C sales to be just 10.4 million units for the December quarter, a 10% sequential drop.

This makes some sense of the rampant discounting seen on the 5C (which actually started at Walmart before launch), but doesn’t necessarily mean that iPhone sales as a whole are down …  Read more

Report claims iPad 5 & Retina iPad mini will sport 8MP rear cameras w/ larger aperture

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With Apple’s rumored next-generation iPads expected to be launching as early as this month, often reliable KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is sharing some new details on the expected iPad 5 and second generation iPad mini. Kuo is still expecting both products to launch later this year sometime in 4Q13, but in his latest report claims that Apple is prepping a camera upgrade for the new iPads that would include a bump up from the current 5 megapixel iSight camera to 8 megapixels along with other improvements:

Apple could upgrade the camera as a selling point for the new iPad in a bid to increase competitiveness.

We expect the upgrade will include 8MP rear camera, up from 5MP, and larger aperture. Lens module ASP will rise 10-20% on this optics spec upgrade.

As a reminder, the new iPhone 5s includes a new five-element lens designed by Apple that also includes a larger a F2.2 aperture with an 8 megapixel sensor. The device also brings a sensor with a 15 percent larger active area, auto stabilization, and bigger 1.5 micron pixels.

That would indeed be a nice camera to put on iPads. Read more