The Apple Bears appear to be winning over the past month and change. Apple’s stock price is now at its lowest price since May and is closing in on its February price in the 520s. At 530, Apple’s market cap is now below 500 billion. So much for those $1 trillion valuations? Read more
In October, Apple stock dropped below 600 for the first time since July. Since then, following a number of new product launches, AAPL has continued to fall and now only sits slightly higher than last week at roughly 550 per share and a market cap of $518 billion. While many have pointed to uncertainty regarding new product launches and executive level changes as the cause of Apple’s falling share price, no one quite has a definitive answer for why AAPL has hit a nearly six-month low. In a report today, titled “A dramatic reading of Apple’s share price”, Asymco analyst Horace Dediu might have the answer.
Dediu studied 13 bear AAPL markets starting with the October 2001 launch of the iPod. As noted in the report, Apple’s stock had just fallen 70 percent year-over-year and continued to drop another 20 percent following the iPod launch. However, since the iPhone launch, Dediu found “every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth.” The graph above maps earnings growth following bear Apple markets since the 2007 iPhone introduction.
So, why exactly does this happen? Dediu explained his theory:
Apple’s stock opened at a record $690 per share following its triumph in the pivotal patents trial against Samsung last Friday. Today is the first day of trading since Apple came out on top and its latest record soars past the previous best of $674.88 per share. The unparallelled all-time high also forced Apple’s market capitalization to $637 billion.
JayDee (@jaydeezy17) August 27, 2012
Check it out: NASDAQ:AAPL
Apple passed its all-time high of 644 and its market cap is once again over $600 billion. Apple last hit both milestones on April 10. The news follows yesterday’s first dividend disbursement in 17 years that paid $2.65 per share of the company’s common stock. The stock price closed over 648.
Also today, Jeffries Analyst Peter Misek reported that Apple’s HDTV production was a go with early 2013 set as a target shipping date.
As the market just begins to open today, Apple’s market cap crossed the $600 billion threshold. Today’s accomplishment comes just a month after the company hit the $500 billion threshold. The market overall is down.
To compare, Microsoft holds the record for the highest market cap ever of $619 billion in 2000 (over $800 billion in today’s dollars). At the time of this writing, Microsoft is sitting at a $250 billion market cap. If some analysts are to be believed, the AAPL train will keep rolling to a $1 trillion market cap in the coming years.
Apple now dwarfs the No. 2 company, Exxon, by a comfortable $200 billion. We are looking forward to April 24 when Apple will talk Q2 2012 numbers.
Fortune relays Piper Jaffray/Gene Munster’s bullish prediction that Apple could reach a $1Trillion valuation in a few years by taking some its competitors’ value while also benefiting from increased tech investment and sales. The first point he illustrates (above) is that during the period where AAPL gained $400B in valuation (2008 to present), some of its key competitors lost the same amount in market cap. The second point is rationalized thusly:
We believe dollars invested in US technology companies will increase ~5% y/y on average for the next three years (CY12-CY14). By comparison, dollars invested in US tech companies were up 9% y/y in 2011. Therefore, the tech sector will add ~$390 billion in market cap through 2014. We assume Apple could capture half of this market cap (from 85% in the 4 years prior).Therefore, the tech sector will add ~$390 billion in market cap through 2014. We assume Apple could capture half of this market cap (from 85% in the 4 years prior).
Here’s a video from CNBC where Munster explains his world view: Apple and Samsung rule the mobile roost and companies like Nokia and RIM disappears into the ether.