Ming-Chi Kuo is an analyst with KGI Securities, which is a Taiwanese business group involved in a range of industries. Kuo covers technology with a focus on Apple.
His strong track record predicting Apple’s products and plans over the last several years has earned him titles like “The Most Accurate Apple Analyst in the World” and “The Analyst Who Reveals all of Apple’s Secrets.”
In 2011 Kuo started a string of correct predictions with the delayed white iPhone 4 release in April. Other claims about the 2012 MacBook Pro with Retina display and Touch ID and more iPhone 5s details in 2013 were also accurate.
In a new report out this morning from noted analyst Ming-Chi Quo at KGI Securities, we find the size of the new iPad form factor, expected in Q2 still in flux indicating that Apple may still be deciding between different sizes.
The new models will come in 12.9”, 10-10.5” and 9.7” versions. We note the 12.9” model will be the second generation of the existing 12.9” iPad Pro, the 10-10.5” model will be the high-end model equipped with a narrow bezel design, and the 9.7” model will be the low-priced option. The former two models will have an A10X chip manufactured by TSMC (2330 TT, NT$183.5, N), while the latter comes with an A9 chip made by Samsung LSI. Although we estimate iPad shipments in 2017 will drop again YoY to 35-37mn units, we except the decline to narrow to 10% from 2016’s roughly 20%, given that the 10-10.5” model may see more demand from commercial/ enterprises and tender markets, while the low-priced 9.7” model may have a greater shipment contribution and likely account for 50-60% of total shipments of new iPads.
Perhaps most interesting for AAPL stockholders is the psychological impact of iPad sales leveling off and greater ASP…
According to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from KGI Securities, the 2017 iPhone will add wireless charging for the first time. Instead of plugging in a cable, iPhone 8 owners will be able to charge their batteries using an inductive pad similar to how the Apple Watch charges. Although many Android phones support wireless charging with plastic and metal chassis, the report says Apple’s switch to a glass casing for iPhone 8 will enable wireless charging at fast speeds with minimum disruption from frequency interference.
The report says that Apple may not bundle a wireless charger with every model — it may be limited to the more expensive, higher-capacity SKUs — but expects Apple to adopt wireless charging aggressively through 2018. Plans are up in the air at this point, of course, but buyers of the low-end models may find they have to buy an additional accessory if they want to charge their phone wirelessly.
KGI‘s Ming-Chi Kuo is out with his latest iPhone sales numbers forecast which shows the iPhone 7 line falling in sales for the second consecutive year. The primary drivers are weak demand in China, slow shipment volume of 4.7” iPhones in 1Q17, and the lack of a new iPhone SE in 2Q17.
We are conservative about the sell-through of the 4.7” iPhone and Apple’s market share in China. As such, we estimate 1Q17 iPhone shipment volume of 40-50mn units, lower than the 51.2mn units in 1Q16.
Shipment volume in 2Q16 came in higher than expected thanks to upbeat demand for the iPhone SE. However, in order to keep gross margin at a high level and to avoid cannibalization of high-end models, we do not expect Apple to launch an upgraded iPhone SE in 2Q17. Without contribution from a new model, we forecast total iPhone shipment volume will reach 35-40mn units and fall YoY in 2Q17, lower than the 40.4mn units in 2Q16.
Falling sales may force Apple to exert pressure on its suppliers to reduce costs starting this month or next…
A rather speculative KGI note suggests that Apple’s focus on augmented reality (AR) instead of virtual reality (VR) will give the company a 3-5 year lead on the rest of the industry when it launches its first products. The report also suggests that Apple could use augmented reality as part of an autonomous driving system.
All of Apple’s past successes were related to human-machine interfaces, such as mouse for Mac, click wheel for iPod, and multi-touch for iPhone and iPad. Assuming Apple successfully develops AR, we predict the firm will enjoy the following competitive advantages: (1) redefining existing key products and leading competitors by three to five years. For instance, this could happen for iPhone, iPad and Mac; (2) eliminating obstacles of Apple Watch and Apple TV by offering an innovative user experience; and (3) entering new business fields, such as autonomous driving system.
KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo doesn’t, though, expect Apple to launch its first AR product any time soon …
KGI’sMing-Chi Kuo is out with a set of research notes today highlighted by ‘iPad Air 3’ forecasts. Notably, the newest 9.7-inch Apple tablet is expected to be released in the 1st half of 2016, perhaps at the March event we’ve pinned to include the Apple Watch 2 with a possible appearance of the 4-inch iPhone 6c. The bad news is that like the iPad Pro, the new iPad Air 3 isn’t likely to have 3D Touch, which is a big part of the new iPhone 6s/Plus experience, according to the analyst… Expand Expanding Close
KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a good track record on what if not when, says that Apple’s new 4-inch iPhone will “resemble an upgraded iPhone 5s,” but will get some new internals. Externally, he suggests the main visible difference will be similar curved-edge glass to the iPhone 6/6s.
Beneath the hood, he says the phone – expected to be dubbed the iPhone 6c – will get an A9 processor and NFC chip to support Apple Pay. The camera will, however, be identical to that in the 5s. Kuo’s investment note also supports recent reports that the 6c will get a metal case, stating that it will be available in at least 2-3 colors.
Kuo expects the phone to hit in the first quarter of next year, but does think that it may generate relatively modest sales … Expand Expanding Close
Theo Levey’s early iPhone 6 render wasn’t perfect, but it was usefully close
Reporting on future Apple products isn’t easy — it’s actually one of the biggest challenges in the world of technology journalism. Back in April 2011, The Verge’s predecessor (This Is My Next) ran a much-discussed report on the “iPhone 5,” which was claimed to be teardrop-shaped, with an enlarged, gesture-sensitive Home Button, and a bezel-less 3.7″ screen. NFC, inductive charging, and a speaker and sensors hidden behind the screen were also said to be possibilities for the new iPhone. Not surprisingly, the report lit up the Internet, generating a lot of attention (and over 500 comments) for a fledgling web site. Though some people were skeptical, accessory makers actually took the report seriously enough to manufacture cases matching the claims.
As it turned out, the report was wrong — very wrong. Exactly none of those features actually arrived in either the “iPhone 4S” Apple announced in October 2011, or the real “iPhone 5” that debuted in September 2012. The report also didn’t forecast actual iPhone design trends in any useful way. From my standpoint, that’s the critical difference between most Apple rumors and the ones that are actually worth caring about: some early information, even if it’s imprecise, can help you make a better buying decision about an Apple product today or six months down the line.
A small group of nitpickers — notably including people who are fed information directly by Apple, off-the-record — have been taking shots at people who report independently-researched rumors, attempting to undermine the value of big, “not from Apple” scoops versus small, “not (officially) from Apple” tidbits. This may be an inside baseball topic that most people really don’t care about, but it’s worth at least considering for a moment…
Foursquare is tapping into its data of foot traffic for the first time to predict Apple’s iPhone sales as the new iPhone 6s and 6s Plus launch this weekend. The company notes that it has “the world’s largest database of information on the foot traffic of people around the globe,” courtesy of its app users that use the app to check-in at locations they visit. Expand Expanding Close
He expects the larger tablet to go in to production between September and October and that the stylus will be able to take advantage of the new iPad’s Force Touch-enabled screen. It’s being imagined as a feature which could help users more easily navigate the larger display of the iPad Pro. KGI has predicted an optional Lightning-charging stylus sold alongside the larger-screened iPad since earlier this year.
A special Top 11 list today from noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on the next iPhone (6s? 7?) that will be released later this year. Counting down:
Force Touch will be the biggest upgraded selling point, but also one of the main bottlenecks of the supply chain. Force Touch can enrich user experience due to more input methods and support of handwritten signatures, which is beneficial for expanding in the commercial market
Screen will remain at 4.7 and 5.5 inches, with resolution the same as existing models. There will be no new 4-inch model
There will be an additional casing color, rose gold, matching the rose-gold Apple Watch Edition
The camera will have a pixel upgrade, likely to 12MP
One microphone will be added near the speaker to enhance voice quality
The A9 processor with upgraded 2GB LPDDR4 will be adopted
The bending issue will be improved by using different casing materials and internal mechanical design changes
If drop test issues can be resolved, the 5.5-inch model will have a limited number of units with sapphire cover lens
The recognition rate of Touch ID will be improved further in a bid to promote Apple Pay
Gesture control support
It’s expected that mass production will start in mid-to-late August. Total shipments will be 80-90mn in 2015, with a 2:1 ratio of 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch models.
KGI Research’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analyst/firms with a respectable record on Apple forecasts, updated its iPhone sales expectation numbers this weekend for the holiday quarter and Q1 of 2015.
Strong iPhone shipments in 4Q14. We forecast overall iPhone shipments will surge 82% QoQ to 71.5mn units in 4Q14, given robust demand for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. The iPhone 6 Plus supply shortage implies not only robust demand, but also confirms our concerns regarding constraints within the supply chain. We believe 4Q14 iPhone shipments will be stronger if supply chain constraints are eased.
Kuo notes that the iPhone 5c and 4s which are still sold in emerging markets [like Virgin Mobile in the US?!] will be discontinued in 2015 after promotions that ironically will improve low end sales numbers in Q1 2015. Subsequently, average price per device sold will also drop significantly for Apple in Quarter 1… Expand Expanding Close
We don’t yet know the price of the 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition, but it doesn’t require psychic powers to know that it isn’t going to be cheap. KGH analyst Ming-Chi Kuo’s prediction of the most expensive model costing “several thousand dollars” is probably exaggerated, but may not be quite as far-fetched as it seemed.
David Pogue shared one of the things Apple didn’t mention on stage but did reveal during press demonstrations afterwards … Expand Expanding Close
KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, in a report this morning, states that both 4.7- and 5.5-inch models of the iPhone 6 will be launched next week and will both offer 128GB storage option. If Apple retains its usual three-tier structure this would suggest 32GB, 64GB and 128GB models – though it could be that 128GB would be a fourth tier, as with its iPad Air models. Or, as a previous report suggested, Apple could keep the 16GB option as a very low price tier and skip 32GB.
The same report predicts that the iPad Air 2 will be announced on the same day as the iPhone 6 rather than in a separate event in October. In this scenario, Apple would forgo any physical updates to the iPad mini line (perhaps price drops?). If true, this suggests that it could be a relatively minor refresh, perhaps simply with Touch ID added and a marginally thinner casing along with the RAM bumped up to 2GB for things like split window multitasking … Expand Expanding Close
Following Re/code’s report earlier this week that Apple will announce its wearable product (iWatch, iBand) alongside new iPhones on September 9th, Re/code now adds that the device won’t actually be available this year.
Sources in position to know tell me it won’t arrive at market for a few months. “It’s not shipping any time soon,” said one. So when does Apple plan to ship its eagerly anticipated wearable? That’s not clear, but my understanding is that we’re unlikely to see it at retail until after the holiday season — think early 2015. Expand Expanding Close
Reuters is reporting that iPhone 6 production was disrupted for part of June and July after Apple was forced to abandon its plans to use a thinner display backlighting system in the new handset.
Suppliers to Apple are scrambling to get enough screens ready for the new iPhone 6 smartphone as the need to redesign a key component disrupted panel production ahead of next month’s expected launch, supply chain sources said …
A new report from Asian site TechNews.tw claims information from the Apply supply chain points to the next generation iPad Air doubling up on RAM from 1GB to 2GB. The additional memory would benefit system performance, especially during multitasking, when more memory-intesive tasks like browsing multiple websites in Safari and using other apps requires more RAM to function smoothly.
According to a new report from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the much anticipated launch of Apple’s “iWatch” could be delayed into 2015. Kuo claims that difficulties with manufacturing the new device will likely be the cause of the delay: Expand Expanding Close
KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has provided accurate Apple product information in the past (timing aside), has released a new research note predicting that supply constraints on key components may result in a serious delay in the release of the larger iPhone 6 model with a 5.5-inch display. According to the note, issues with the in-cell touch panel and coloring of the device could push the launch of the device back to a post-October date, possibly as late as next year:
Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has provided relatively accurate information on future Apple product plans in the past (but frequent misses on timing), has issued a new report today indicating that the Apple smart watch will enter mass-production in November. Kuo’s previous estimate on production for the “iWatch” indicated that the device would enter mass-production rounds in September. “We have pushed back our estimated time of iWatch mass production from late-September to mid-/ late- November. We also lower our forecast of iWatch 2014 shipments by 40% to 3mn units,” Kuo wrote in today’s report. The analyst claims the push back is due to more complex hardware and software engineering in this first generation Apple product category.
Kuo also provides some tidbits as to what he is expecting the device to feature:
KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has made a few more predictions about what we’ll see from Apple in the near future. According to a new KGI research note, Apple could potentially release cheaper versions of the iMac and iPhone 5s during its developer conference next week to accompany its software announcements.
Earlier today new references to an unreleased iteration of the the iMac appeared in an OS X developer preview, likely indicating the impending release of a new model. It’s quite possible that this could be the cheaper iMac referred to in the report. Despite the rumored upgrade, KGI has revised its iMac shipment estimates down, citing a slow PC market:
An image of an aluminium backplate for what looks like the rumoured, larger, iPad Pro has appeared on Weibo. Although details are unclear, not to mention incredibly sketchy, this looks like an aluminium mockup dummy unit, not an actual iPad part. The image was first spotted by NowhereElse.fr.
Earlier this year, we reported that Apple is engaging in a push to hire talent to work on wearable devices (an “iWatch”). Since then, we noted that Apple hired two notable wearables specialists from Nike: Jay Blahnik (a consultant on the Fuel Band) and Ben Shaffer. Based on these hires, we believe that the iWatch will hit the market within the next couple of years.
iWatch concepts are constantly emerging. A new poll on Polar shows thirty-seven different iWatch concepts. Some of the concepts we have covered in our roundups, and others are new that focus on iOS 7 software design. Of course, these are all concepts and mockups that may not look at all like the actual product. However, we thought it would be interesting to gather polls from Polar indicating which concepts are most enticing to Apple fans.
In the above poll system, you can vote for your favorite concepts and use the arrows to move between images.
With Apple’s rumored next-generation iPads expected to be launching as early as this month, often reliable KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is sharing some new details on the expected iPad 5 and second generation iPad mini. Kuo is still expecting both products to launch later this year sometime in 4Q13, but in his latest report claims that Apple is prepping a camera upgrade for the new iPads that would include a bump up from the current 5 megapixel iSight camera to 8 megapixels along with other improvements:
Apple could upgrade the camera as a selling point for the new iPad in a bid to increase competitiveness.
We expect the upgrade will include 8MP rear camera, up from 5MP, and larger aperture. Lens module ASP will rise 10-20% on this optics spec upgrade.
As a reminder, the new iPhone 5s includes a new five-element lens designed by Apple that also includes a larger a F2.2 aperture with an 8 megapixel sensor. The device also brings a sensor with a 15 percent larger active area, auto stabilization, and bigger 1.5 micron pixels.
Image via <a href="http://www.gottabemobile.com/2013/02/25/galaxy-s3-vs-galaxy-note-2-vs-iphone-5-size-comparison/"><em>GottaBeMobile</em></a>
According to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi-Kuo, Apple’s 2014 iPhone update is set to include a model with a larger display. Kuo pinpoints the screen increase to be between 4.5 and 5 inches. He also says that the display will continue to be based off of the in-cell touch screen technology. This display configuration, introduced with the iPhone 5, allows Apple to install thinner displays, and this means overall svelter phones.
Today’s claim is not surprising given that we have heard several indications that Apple is looking to boost the size of the iPhone’s display. Earlier this year, Reutersreported that Apple is exploring larger display sizes for the iPhone, particularly in the 4.7-inch and 5.7-inch “phablet” range. The aforementioned 4.7-inch Apple displays in testing would fit the claims of Kuo. Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journalreported that Apple was testing displays up to 6-inches in size…
