There is a common saying among expats in China – particularly longtime “China Hands” – that goes like this: The more time you spend in China, the less you understand it. So it’s with this in mind that we try and break down exactly what’s going wrong for Apple in China these days, likely a confluence of factors from politics and economics to nationalism and a rapidly changing consumer market. There’s no easy answer.

People have begun wondering what’s wrong following a few worrying signs: Apple announced a severe slowdown in iPhone sales in China on its recent earnings call, a new report by IDC confirmed a concerning tumble in iPhone sales, and Apple’s uncharacteristic decision to cut prices on the latest model phones sold at some of China’s largest retailers. These don’t seem like moves that would be made by a strong, confident company.

So what’s wrong in China? Let’s dig in.

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The Christmas and New Year holidays are behind us, but China and a couple of other countries in Asia are now gearing up for the Lunar New Year holiday.

The Chinese New Year, or Tet in Vietnam, is the biggest holiday on the calendar over here. It triggers the largest human migration in the world as millions of Chinese working in the metropolises of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and other buzzing cities head back home to visit their families.

I’ll be leaving town, too, which got me thinking about the tech I’ll be bringing with me. I’m fortunate to do plenty of international travel each year, mainly because flights from Hong Kong are cheap and there are a number of amazing destinations within a couple of hours’ flight. (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, I could go on…)

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Apple’s HomeKit seemed to be the star of the show at the Consumer Electronics Show this year, with a wide range of home-based gadgets — TVs, ceiling fans, outdoor sensors, light panels, a screen-based hub, 4K security cameras, thermostats and more — making headlines.

The HomeKit ecosystem is growing, and it looks like prices may even begin inching downward as well — but that’s not enough, and not fast enough either. As Bradley Chambers wrote in an opinion piece, Apple is leaving a lot of potential on the table by relying solely on third parties to create home-based gadgets.

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Apple’s share price has taken a steep tumble since rumors began to spread that the iPhone XS and XS Max weren’t selling well. Unlike past years, though, this time the rumors were right: the iPhone giant confirmed yesterday that it expects lower-than-expected sales for its newest line of iPhones. Markets that were already jittery over trade wars and a government shutdown heavily sold off on the news, pushing Apple’s share price down to $144 from a high of $233 in October.

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These are dark days for Apple, at least in terms of its stock price. Multiple reports are indicating the iPhone XS and XR series phones aren’t selling as well as Apple had hoped, knocking the company’s share price down more than 25% from its high a couple of months ago.

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A dual-SIM iPhone was way down the list of features wanted by most buyers, so it was a surprise to hear Phil Schiller say during the September Apple keynote that the two newest iPhones would have both an eSIM and regular nano-SIM slot for phones sold globally — except in one particular region.

Dual-SIM phones have long been a big deal in China, which has a confusing labyrinth of phone plans depending on which village or town you’re in and what plan you sign up for. It’s been common for Chinese people to swap SIMs depending on who they’re calling or where they happen to be, and dual-SIM models by Huawei, Oppo and others have sold well for just this reason.

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