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China has been fundamental to Apple’s historical success, but is also arguably the greatest risk to the company’s future.

Why are most Apple products made in China?

Although everyone assumes Apple products are made in China because labor is cheap there, that’s only part of the story – and an increasingly small part, as the company’s assembly partners move toward more and more automated operations.

Steve Jobs originally transferred most Apple manufacturing to China because it was the only country in the world with a huge ready-made supply-chain network, and the ability to scale up production almost overnight. There are three main reasons China – and specifically the Shenzhen area – is such a powerful manufacturing center.

First, the city is strategically placed, serving as the gateway between mainland China and Hong Kong. It is one of the largest shipping centers in the world, with a massive container port.

Second, the Chinese government established Shenzhen as the first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the country. SEZs are designed to encourage enterprise through relaxed planning regulations and generous tax incentives – and crucially, to facilitate foreign investment in local companies. It is this, as much as its geographical advantages, which has enabled it to grow at such a pace.

Third, that SEZ was established way back in 1980, meaning that the city has had over 40 years to grow into the manufacturing center of the tech world. Apple relies on a huge network of suppliers and sub-contractors, some of which may make just a single tiny component. The majority of them are based in Shenzhen and its immediate surrounds, so the logistics of bringing everything together in one place for assembly are straightforward.

What are the risk factors with China?

Being over-dependent on China carries a number of risks.

First, there is the generic one: Being overly dependent on any one country is a strategic risk. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic originated there, and had a massive impact on manufacturing capacity. Anything from a natural disaster to political upheaval could disrupt operations within a single country, so it is always wise to have a diverse range of manufacturing centers around the world.

Second, the relationship between the US and China has often been fraught. The trade war started by the previous US administration was a particularly low point, but continued tensions mean that there is always a risk of disruptions to trade between the two countries.

Third, it is increasingly damaging to Apple’s reputation to be so closely associated with a country that has a worsening human rights record – especially when the iPhone maker has no choice but to comply with local laws, however much they may conflict with the company’s own values. Apple has been required to remove VPN and a variety of other apps from the Chinese App Store, allow the iCloud data of Chinese customers to be stored on government-controlled servers, and more. Additionally, there have been growing reports of forced labor in China, including within many different areas of Apple’s supply chain.

What is Apple doing about it?

Apple has been working for a long time on diversifying its manufacturing operations, and has in recent years accelerated the pace at which it is doing so.

As explained above, this is far from an easy undertaking, but Apple now has major manufacturing operations in India, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, among other countries.

In India in particular, we are seeing the very early stages of a complete supply-chain infrastructure as the government uses a mix of carrot and stick to encourage companies to manufacture more of their components within the country – namely, tariffs on imports of components and tax breaks for local production. COVID-19 lockdowns in China also saw Apple move some iPad production to Vietnam for the first time, but it’s clear that the risks of over-dependence on China have never been greater.

UBS matches KGI’s upbeat forecast for Q2 iPhone sales of 51M, well above consensus

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UBS has matched the upbeat iPhone forecast made last month by KGI for Q2 (Apple’s fiscal Q3), both analysts estimating sales of 51M – well above the consensus expectation of 45M.

KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo predicts 51.4M, saying that while he believes iPhone sales have peaked, demand will remain higher than the normal seasonal pattern. UBS forecast 51.1M, noting that Apple’s “continued surge” in China is a key factor, where the premium market remains strong despite reports of the country approaching saturation point in smartphones.

Both analysts have strong track-records, Ming-Chi Kuo being our go-to guy for supply-chain rumors, and UBS producing a graph to show the accuracy of its past predictions (below) … 
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Tim Cook talks Apple Pay, Xiaomi, new environmental efforts during China visit

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Tim Cook, who is in China this week to discuss Apple’s new environmental initiatives, spoke to Chinese media regarding his plans to further expand Apple services in the country. Speaking to news outlet Xinhua, Cook discussed a variety of topics, including his hope to launch Apple Pay in China and get a smartphone in the hand of every resident.


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Tim Cook opens account on Chinese social network Weibo during Beijing trip

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With Apple now selling more iPhones in China than in the USA, and much of Apple’s Q2 earnings call focused on the country, it’s no great surprise that Tim Cook has today opened an account on the Chinese equivalent of Twitter known as Weibo. There is, though, a certain amount of irony involved, Weibo being one of the main sources of leaked information on Apple products.

Cook is in Beijing to announce Apple’s new environmental programs in the country, the topic of his first post.

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At the time of writing, the verified account already had over 300,000 followers, with almost 50,000 likes on his first post … 
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China approaches smartphone saturation point, shipments fall as penetration hits 90% – IDC

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China – long viewed as one of the key growth markets for smartphones – is now approaching saturation point, according to data being released today by IDC. The WSJ reports that smartphone shipments fell for the first time in six years, 4.3% down year-on-year in the previous quarter. Other sources say sales are still growing, but at a much-reduced rate.

Experts say the slowdown is largely driven by the disappearance of China’s first-time buyers. Smartphones now have a more than 90% penetration rate in China, said Tom Kang, research director with market-research firm Counterpoint, meaning just about everybody in China who wants a smartphone already has one. “China is now a replacement market,” Mr. Kang said.

While the news may be bad for many smartphone manufacturers, Apple is less likely to be affected as existing owners upgrade from low-end and mid-range handsets to premium ones.

Apple now sells more iPhones in China than in the US, Kantar putting the company’s market share there at 26%. Tim Cook stated in the most recent earnings call that revenue was up 58% year-on-year in emerging markets, Apple also revealing that Chinese App Store sales doubled in 12 months, while online sales in China tripled in the same time.

The company this morning announced a number of new environmental initiatives in the country.

Photo: Darley Shen/Reuters

Apple announces new China environmental initiatives: responsibly managed forests, solar for manufacturing

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Apple today has announced a variety of new environmental initiatives for its China operations. Through a press release, the company announced a new multi-year partnership with World Wildlife Fund to increase responsibly managed forests throughout China. Apple also announced that it intends to expand its renewable energy projects to manufacturing facilities in China.


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All Apple Stores to begin stocking 12-inch MacBook at end of May

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MacBook (Retina, 12-inch, Early 2015)

The recently released 12-inch MacBook will be available for purchase at all Apple Stores globally beginning the week of May 25th, according to a memo from Apple to its retail staff issued earlier today. Because of supply constraints, not unlike those for the also recently-launched Apple Watch, sales of the new MacBook have been mostly restricted to Apple’s Online Store…


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Report: Android switchers drive iPhone growth across EU in Q1, Apple grows to 26% share in China

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New data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech shows that smartphone users ditching Android devices in recent months helped drive iOS growth across the EU. The data tracked the EU’s biggest markets in 1Q15— Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain— and shows iOS grew 1.8 percentage points from last year to 20.3% market share this year. That includes around 32.4% of new Apple customers switching from an Android device, according to the report, while Android lost 3.1 percentage points during the quarter:
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China finally overtakes U.S. in iPhone sales, Chinese revenue up 71%

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Hangzhou Opens Second Apple Store

Pundits have been predicting for several successive quarters that iPhone sales in China would outstrip those in the U.S., and Q2 2015 was when it finally happened, reports Reuters.

Apple […] sold more iPhones in China than the United States for the first time […] increasing its revenue in the country 71 percent to $16.8 billion, although that was helped by gift-buying for Chinese New Year.

Tim Cook said that the iPhone was responsible for the bulk of Apple’s revenue in China, though he did also note that Mac sales were “unbelievable,” up 31% year-on-year. As with other markets, the iPhone is usually the first Apple product people buy, but that brings them into the ecosystem and boosts sales of other products … 
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Apple is constructing two new solar sites in China w/ partner SunPower

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Apple Solar Center

After announcing a new partnership earlier today with The Conservation Fund to protect 36,000 acres of forest, news of another environmental effort by the company comes as SunPower announces plans to build a new solar power project in China.

SAN JOSE, Calif., April 16, 2015– Continuing its growth in the world’s largest solar photovoltaic market, SunPower Corporation today announced that it plans to partner with Apple to build two solar power projects totaling 40 megawatts (MW) in ABA Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefectures, Sichuan Province of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). When complete, the two projects will be co-owned by Sichuan Shengtian New Energy Development Co., Ltd., SunPower’s project development joint venture, and Apple. 

The two new solar sites, Apple’s first in the region, are already under construction and expected to be complete by the end of the year. Apple previously worked with SunPower on its solar projects in the US, including locations in California, Nevada, and North Carolina.
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Chinese Apple Pay launch delayed by stalled bank negotiations, maybe UK too

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The launch of Apple Pay in China, originally expected to be part of iOS 8.3, has been delayed by stalled negotiations with both the state-owned card processor UnionPay and Chinese banks, reports MarketWatch. Developers had originally been told that iOS 8.3 would support UnionPay, but found that support was missing when the update rolled out last week.

A UnionPay employee who declined to be named said the company has not reached any agreements with the U.S. tech company, and no timetable for cooperation has been set […]

Those sources also say Apple has not made any breakthroughs in talks with Chinese banks, which would also have to agree for the Apple Pay system to work.

The banks are reportedly unhappy about the cut Apple takes from each transaction … 
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Apple to open its second retail store in Hangzhou, China on April 24

Opening of the first Apple Store in Hangzhou

Opening of the first Apple Store in Hangzhou

Apple opened its first retail store in Hangzhou, China back in January, and now the company has announced plans for a second. Apple says the store will be located at 701 Fuchun Road in the Jianggan District. The store will open at 9:00AM local time on April 24th, which also happens to be launch day for the Apple Watch.


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iPhone stolen in Manhattan a year ago leads Buzzfeed writer to find fame in China (Video)

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We first read about this quite some time ago. It was nothing out of the ordinary at the time: guy has his iPhone stolen, photos from the stolen phone show up in his iCloud account, social media employed to try to track down the person using the phone. But Matt Stopera’s story ended up far from ordinary.

He’s blogged the whole story in great detail on Buzzfeed, but here are the edited highlights …

A lot of the photos that show up featured a guy and an orange tree.

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Like, seriously, a lot of photos of him and his tree – somewhere in China.

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Stopera posted the story to Buzzfeed and within hours someone translated the piece into Chinese and posted it on Weibo, the local equivalent of Twitter. The guy got termed Brother Orange, and people in China started trying to track him down.

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He ended up as the number one trending topic on Weibo.

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Brother Orange was identified – he didn’t steal the phone, but bought it secondhand in good faith. The two of them started chatting, eventually daily. Weibo described it as a romance. Eventually, Stopera suggested he fly to China for the two of them to meet up.

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Stopera was recognized on the plane by a ‘fan’ and started to realize he may really be famous there. He arrived at the airport to a huge crowd, and cameras.

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There were cameras wherever they went.

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People everywhere kept giving him phones. There was even a press conference.

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He doesn’t seem quite sure what it’s for, but thinks he went on to do some product endorsements.

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Followed by a Weibo press conference, a tour of Beijing, a full-on bromance and now a forthcoming documentary. Crazy stuff … all because of the iPhone.

Apple launches iPhone and iPad trade-in program in China Apple Stores

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Apple today officially launched a version of its Apple Store iPhone trade-in program for China, as noted on the individual store pages for China’s Apple Retail Stores.

As is the case in the United States and several other countries with Apple Stores, the program allows a user to bring in an older iPhone model and trade in that device for gift card credit toward the purchase of a new iPhone; the program will most likely not allow a customer to trade in an iPhone toward the purchase of an Apple Watch. But as contrasted with the U.S., France, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Italy, the new China program is limited to iPhones and iPads, and will not support non-Apple smartphones.


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Apple launches in-store Android trade-in program to boost iPhone sales

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In line with our report from earlier this month, Apple today launched its first trade-in program for non-iPhones in its Apple Retail Stores. The program allows users of select Android, Windows Phone, and BlackBerry phones to bring in their devices and receive credit toward the immediate purchase of a new iPhone 5c, iPhone 6, or iPhone 6 Plus (but not an Apple Watch). Apple first launched its standard iPhone Reuse and Recycle trade-in program in 2013, and the company expanded the feature to the iPad last year. Apple made today’s announcement on the individual retail store pages, indicating that the program is so far now available in the U.S., France, United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Italy, and multiple retail sources say that the program has indeed gone live today. A version of the iPhone trade-in program that does not support non-iPhones is launching this week in China.


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Apple to expand iPhone trade-in program to China next week, Foxconn to resell devices on secondary markets

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Apple will begin rolling out an iPhone trade-in program in China in the near future. The option may become available in stores as soon as March 31st, allowing Chinese users to take advantage of the program that has helped boost iPhone sales in several countries already, including the United States, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.

Chinese retail employees will determine the condition of the phone being traded in, and offer Apple Store credit to customers, Bloomberg reports. Devices that are traded in will be sold to Foxconn by Apple. The manufacturing partner will then make any necessary repairs and resell them through its own online outlets:


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China Unicom & China Telecom will sell iPad Air 2, iPad mini 3 cellular models for first time

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China Unicom and China Telecom announced today that they will start selling the iPad Air 2 and iPad mini 3 to customers starting March 27. This is the first time the carriers, two of the top three largest in the country, will offer customers in China the Wi-Fi + Cellular models of Apple’s latest generation tablets. 
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China’s gold consumption suggests Apple Watch Edition is aimed at China, says Om Malik

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China’s voracious appetite for gold suggests that this might be the key market for the solid gold Apple Watch Edition, says former GigaOM founder Om Malik.

There is a love affair between the Chinese and gold jewelry. The gold consumption in that country is going through the roof. (In 2014, the worldwide consumption of gold fell and yet, China demand still stayed strong.) […]

Some believe that the Apple Watch Edition (the expensive kind) will find more takers in China than anywhere else in the world.

It has previously been suggested that it was Asia, and China in particular, which drove the successful decision to start offering iPhones, iPads and now the new MacBook in a gold color.

China is of course a huge market for Apple, the company’s revenues there rising from $12.7B in 2011 to almost $30B last year. Year-on-year revenue growth in China was 17% last year, more than double the growth in Europe and four times that of the Americas.

Apple last year announced plans to increase the number of Apple Stores in China from 15 to 40 in two years, six of them since opened. Retail head Angela Ahrendts listed an emphasis on the country as one of her three key goals.

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Obama weighs in as China demands access to data services provided by U.S. companies

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President Obama has publicly criticized China’s plans to expand ‘security’ policies that would effectively prevent U.S. tech companies like Apple selling their products in China without completely compromising data security.

Reuters reports that the Chinese government plans to require foreign tech companies to host in China all data servers used by their products, and to allow the government access to the data. As this would include iCloud backups, this would provide the Chinese government with complete access to all data stored on iPhones and iPads sold in China.

In an interview with Reuters, Obama said he was concerned about Beijing’s plans for a far-reaching counterterrorism law that would require technology firms to hand over encryption keys, the passcodes that help protect data, and install security “backdoors” in their systems to give Chinese authorities surveillance access … 

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Apple Store opening in Chongqing, China’s MixC mall on March 7th

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Apple is continuing to aggressively expand across China with several stores, and the latest location is opening up in Chongqing on March 7th. This marks the third store in the region, and this one’s address is 55 Xiejiawan Street in the Jiulongpo District. While the first pair of stores in this region were located on busy streets with magnificent exteriors, this third store is placed inside of the area’s MixC shopping mall, which opened up in fall 2014. Apple executives Tim Cook and Angela Ahrendts frequently note how critical China is to Apple’s success, and the pair have said that dozens of stores are opening in China over the next couple of years. Over the past year, China has become the vast majority of where Apple’s revenue is sourced from across the globe. (Via @iFostore)


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U.S. says absurd Chinese rules on selling technology to banks violate trade agreements

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The U.S. government has accused China of violating trade agreements by imposing “intrusive” and “protectionist” rules that would prevent companies like Apple selling technology to Chinese banks.

The regulations, announced by China last month, would have required Western companies to turn over source code for products sold to banks, supposedly to permit security checks to be made–a demand to which Apple and other tech companies could never agree.

The WSJ reports that U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said today that the rules were unacceptable.

“China’s new regulations on the use of information and communications technology in the banking industry go directly against a series of China’s bilateral and multilateral trade commitments. For example, the rules would require technology transfer and use of domestic Chinese intellectual property as a precondition for market access—both of which China has committed not to do,” said Froman.

The rules aren’t about security. They are about protectionism and favoring Chinese companies,” he said. “The administration is aggressively working to have China walk back from these troubling regulations.”

Apple’s aggressive expansion plans in China have meant the company has sometimes had to tread a careful line, such as agreeing to allow China’s State Internet Information Office to carry out security audits of Apple products sold in the country. It has, though, always refused to allow backdoor access to its products and stated it will never compromise the encryption used by its products and services.

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Chinese government removes Apple from list of approved tech companies for state purchases

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The Chinese government has removed several prominent US tech companies, including Apple, from its list of approved vendors for state purchases, Reuters reported today. The change is hardly unexpected following the government’s response to accusations several years ago that the US National Security Administration had been using backdoors in Apple products to spy on users.


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IDC: Xiaomi’s growth tops Samsung in China, but Apple is making a dent too

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According to the latest numbers from IDC, Xiaomi—the rising star of the smartphone industry—has managed to pass up Samsung in China. In 2013, Xiaomi trailed Samsung’s almost 19% market share by a solid 13 percentage points (at just 5.3%), and was only the 5th largest maker of smartphones in China. Things changed in 2014. Last year, Xiaomi finished off with 12.5% of the market, almost a half-point more than Samsung at 12.1%, taking the top spot and passing not just Samsung, but Lenovo, Huawei, and Coolpad as well.

Interestingly, though, the latest numbers also show that Apple’s launch of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus contributed to a decent size dent in both Samsung and Xiaomi’s market footprint in Q4 of last year.
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Apple Pay China expansion reportedly stalled by ChinaUnion, regulators

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We learned last fall that Apple plans to bring Apple Pay to China by partnering with UnionPay. Code found within iOS pointed to Apple preparing its mobile payment service for China while MarketWatch reported Apple was working on a deal with the institution. Several months later, however, MarketWatch now reports that Apple is “struggling with its relationship with UnionPay,” adding that Apple has not yet established an agreement it hoped to reach by March.
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